Roseville, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXUS63 KDTX 252023
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
423 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening, along and south of the I-96/I-94 corridors.

- Scattered thunderstorms late tonight grazing the Tri Cities and
  northern Thumb into Thursday morning.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms again Thursday afternoon as
  warm and humid air builds back into Lower Michigan.

- A chance of thunderstorms continues Friday into the weekend as an
  active pattern holds across the Great Lakes.

- High temperatures increase back to the upper 80s to 90 degrees
  Thursday through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperature and moisture contrast remain sharp across the front up
against peak heating this afternoon helped by a substantial band of
clouds still in place after morning showers. This front remains the
weather highlight for this afternoon and tonight, and really all the
way through the late week period as a couple of larger waves of low
pressure track along it.

This afternoon, the surface front and weak wind shift settled to a
position near the I-96/I-94 corridors with showers/storms developing
along and south of the boundary into moderate instability. Mid
afternoon mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE increasing to 1500 J/kg
following RAP/HRRR projections that briefly reach 2000 J/kg near the
Ohio border before fading this evening. A mostly uncapped convective
response produced a few respectable updrafts in the vicinity of the
front and Lake Erie lake breeze where backed low level flow helped
maximize an otherwise pedestrian wind profile. The mixed convective
mode in this scenario still favors a precip loaded downburst wind
gust with some small hail also possible within the narrow mid level
CAPE profile. What is also still notable is the moisture depth
projected to hold near 2 inch PW moving forward from the 12Z DTX
sounding that makes heavy rainfall and localized flooding an equal
if not primary hazard through the evening.

As ongoing convection fades this evening, attention turns to the low
pressure system across the upper Midwest to which the Ohio border
front is connected. Showers have been occurring all day in that
area, along and north of the surface low and warm front, with
thunderstorms along the trailing cold front, all boosted by stronger
and more organized larger scale forcing. It is upper jet dominated
today followed by an increasing component of DCVA from the 4 corners
mid level wave as it lifts into the Plains tonight and Thursday.
Continued surface low development then leads to a strengthening low
level jet late tonight that drives the convective response widely
supported by 25/12Z hi-res, regional, and global model runs. The
developing surface low also pulls the current stalled front slowly
back northward beginning late tonight, enough so that elevated/LLJ
driven convection becomes favored in the 850-700 mb theta-e gradient
moving into the northern Great Lakes. Some of this convection does
graze the Tri Cities and Thumb region toward sunrise into Thursday
morning as the warm front moves into central Lower Mi which sets the
stage for a new round of surface based storms in the afternoon. The
upper Midwest wave of low pressure ripples along the warm front to
help touch things off and also pulls the front southward behind it
for an additional afternoon and evening focus. Convective clusters
then move through the warm sector across SE Mi with at least a
Marginal risk of severe intensity well into the evening. Yet another
wave of low pressure resets the pattern Thursday night and Friday in
very similar fashion to close out an active late week period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over western Quebec has pushed frontal boundary south
of the Michigan border, resulting in light easterly winds over the
Central Great Lakes through tonight. Still enough instability around
Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie to trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms, which may be strong to severe. Another wave of low
pressure looks to be coming out of the Midwest tomorrow, lifting the
frontal boundary north as a warm front. Easterly winds will pick up
significantly north of the front, but stronger winds (reaching 25
knots) should be confined to northern Lake Huron. The front and low
will result in numerous showers and strong thunderstorms returning,
which looks to be continuing into Friday. Light northwest flow
follows the low for Friday night into Saturday before winds become
light southerly for the second half of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A front wavering north and south across Lower Mi will be focus for
showers and thunderstorms today through Friday, and possibly through
the weekend. For this afternoon and tonight, the area along and
south of the I-96/I-94 corridor has greater coverage and heavy rain
potential. Showers and storms ongoing over the upper Midwest also
graze the Tri Cities and northern Thumb late tonight and Thursday
morning as the front moves back northward. The front becomes the
focus for yet another round of storms in the afternoon which spread
across the area in warm and humid air returning to the region. All
of this occurs in a deep/high moisture environment that promotes
heavy rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding. Typical
urban, small stream, and flood prone areas are most at risk but also
any location that experiences repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, which could happen anywhere across SE Michigan during
the mid to late week period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

AVIATION...

A front is stalled along the MI/OH border this afternoon which keeps
the terminals on the cool side of the boundary, at least for today.
Monitoring the potential for convection later this afternoon and
evening as low ceilings scatter out, offering a renewed period of
instability and VFR conditions. Any thunderstorm activity that
develops will be isolated to scattered in nature, but does appear
more probable for the southern terminals. Introduced a PROB30 from
19Z to 23Z for DTW/DET/YIP to account for this threat with a MVFR
ceiling/visibility restriction. Outside of localized gust/downburst
enhancement attributed to convection, winds should stay rather weak
through the period, generally from the northeast. Mainly dry
tonight, outside of a stray shower or two, before the front lifts
north as a warm font Thursday yielding additional shower and
thunderstorm chances. Additionally, more activity may occur at
FNT/MBS ahead of inbound low pressure system featuring the approach
of an attendant cold front. Did add a PROB30 after 17Z Thursday for
additional thunder.

For DTW/D21 Convection...A 30 percent chance of thunderstorms exists
across southern half of the airspace for the rest of today,
therefore a PROB30 was included. Any thunderstorms that develop are
expected to remain more or less scattered in coverage. Additional
thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

 THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms today and tonight, then medium Thursday.

* Low in ceiling at or below 5000 feet today and tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....BT
AVIATION.....KGK


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