Roseville, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

096
FXUS63 KDTX 022101
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
401 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snowfall and flurries at times this evening and into Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures persist through Thursday with the coldest
  wind chills dropping a few degrees below zero Wednesday morning;
  similarly cold Thursday morning.

- Next chance for accumulating snowfall arrives Thursday night
  through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Flanking axis of CVA ahead of a cold front has exited this afternoon
which has lightened snowfall rates. KDTX reflectivity returns are
also a bit weaker, compared to late morning and midday snowfall
rates. These increasingly light and scattered snow showers should
linger into the evening hours as the shallow boundary layer remains
sufficiently moist and weakly forced ahead of the passage of a cold
front. Areas of mesoscale convergence offer localized enhancements
to snow production this evening, but new accumulations should remain
AOB a quarter inch. An elevated warm front attempts to lift north of
the Michigan/Ohio state line tonight, while surface winds remain in
west flow. Additional light snow/flurry potential exists. A canopy
of cloud should improve nocturnal insulation, and keep overnight
lows between 10F and 15F.

Snow chances drop throughout the day Tuesday as high pressure builds
southeastward into the Upper Midwest. Low-level anticyclonic flow
limits the productivity of northwest flow across Lake Michigan, in
spite of ice coverage only hovering around 40 percent. Forecast
soundings and moisture progs indicate the influx of drier air from
north to south, generally between 12Z and 21Z Tuesday, with an
eroding omega signal through the drying shallow stratocumulus layer.
This does leave the southern half of the forecast area more
susceptible to pockets of light snow showers, but only through the
midday hours. Tweaked PoPs to include mentions of isolated light
snow showers. Some clearing expected Tuesday night, enough to get
lows to drop back into single digit territory.

850 mb temperatures persist in the minus double-digit (Celsius)
range on Wednesday which ensures cold conditions continue. Morning
wind chills could minimize as low as -5F. The upstream ridge axis
starts to shear out as it crosses over the Great Lakes, and the
surface circulation becomes more diffuse, lending a weakening WNW
gradient wind trend. Highest confidence of the week in a snowless
forecast Wednesday based on the lack of ascent and lowest PWATs. The
arctic airmass dislodges Thursday with lower column flow backing WSW
ahead of the next system. Lead isentropic ascent develops by
Thursday evening as light snowfall spreads southeastward. Meanwhile,
a seasonably strong jet axis will move overhead and become quasi-
stationary through the weekend with various jet enhancements and
geopotential height perturbations. Several rounds of snow are
possible Thursday night through Friday with accumulations. The most
intense low-level jet offers the gustiest winds on Friday, possibly
in excess of 35 mph.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak clipper begins to depart the region this evening tapering off
lingering light snow showers save for a few lake effect snow showers
over mainly eastern Lake Huron. Northwesterly winds develop as this
occurs tonight with strongest winds occuring over the northern and
central portions of Lake Huron given the fetch. Over these waters,
winds of 15-20kts are most likely though gusts in the 20-25kt range
are possible over the north-central waters; which also would support
some areas of freezing spray in ice-free waters. High pressure
dropping out of Canada then expands over the region through midweek
promoting drier weather and lighter (<15kt) winds. Another clipper
swinging out of northern Ontario is expected to draw an arctic cold
front over the central Great Lakes late Friday-Saturday. Strong
trailing cold advection looks to offer the next shot at gales and
heavy freezing spray for Lake Huron.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

AVIATION...

Cyclonic vorticity and moisture advection has resulted in weak lift
and light snow across Southeast Michigan today. Radar and surface
observation trends support another hour or two of IFR visibility
restrictions in light snow before prevailing precipitation ends. Low
level moisture and saturation is progged to settle in after
precipitation ends with widespread surface observations upstream
supporting IFR ceilings. Preference was to err more optimistic and
included a TEMPO or prevailing ceiling this afternoon at low MVFR.
MVFR or VFR stratus is anticipated tonight.

For DTW...Light snow is expected to end around 19z with some
visibility restrictions in BR possible this afternoon.  Did include
low MVFR ceilings in TEMPO this afternoon. Very low confidence in
snow flurries Tuesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight.

* High for ptype as snow.

* Low in visibility restrictions of 1/2SM SN or ceilings heights of
  200 ft.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....CB


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