Rochester Hills, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

550
FXUS63 KDTX 132009
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
309 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain quickly transitioning to snow early Wednesday morning with
light snow showers lingering through the afternoon. Accumulations
between a dusting to an half inch for most locations, with isolated
amounts near 1 inch.

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for eastern Huron and
northeastern Sanilac counties late Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning due to the potential for persistent onshore lake
effect bands. Accumulations of 5-7" possible for these eastern
lakeshore areas.

- Much colder late this week and into next weekend. Thursday morning
wind chills reach negative single digits for most areas.

- Periodic chances for snow will exist Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Light showers pushed east of the region shortly before time of
discussion affording a dry start to the evening as the clipper over
the northern Great Lakes reaches eastern Ontario. Arrival of the
weak lead cold front after 00Z this evening supports another round
of scattered light showers/drizzle mainly north of I-94 where
greater column moisture resides. Wider spread precip chances quickly
follow overnight as the trailing arctic cold front drops through
southern lower MI between 08-14Z. With only modest cold air
advection following the lead front, surface/wet bulb temperatures
are forecast to be just above freezing in the mid to lower 30s
keeping initial precipitation as rain (or rain-snow mix in heavier
activity). This however is expected to only last for an hour or so
from onset with a quick transition to all snow as temperatures
rapidly fall below freezing and into the 20s in the immediate wake
of the arctic front. Limited available moisture confines the primary
accumulation window along the frontal circulation, which given the
higher likelihood for lead rain before transitioning, keeps
potential accumulations light- dusting to around a half inch with
higher amounts towards an inch being much more isolated.

Additional light snow showers work across SE MI Wednesday morning
before the drier arctic airmass can sufficiently cut off lake
moisture penetrating this far south. Minimal additional snowfall
expected, with most areas seeing a dusting at most. Exception to
this still looking to be the easternmost Thumb due to north-
northwest winds within the lake aggregate trough drawing long axis
Lake Huron banding near/overhead. While it carries high sensitivity
to any shift to more pure northwesterly flow, high-res model runs
continue to advertise enough of a northerly wind component to
maintain defined banding over areas along/east of a Port Austin-Port
Sanilac line from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday
morning. Should these more persistent/longer duration solutions
manifest, there is concern these eastern lakeshore areas to be see
accumulations up to 5-7" by Thursday morning. Though more borderline
for a warning given the longer duration, opted to issue a Winter
Storm Watch for eastern Huron and northeastern Sanilac counties
given the consistency amongst the high-res models for onshore
banding offering a shot to reach/exceed the 7" warning threshold.

Core of the arctic airmass settles over the central Great Lakes
Wednesday-Thursday as 850mb temps fall to -17C. Lows by Thursday
morning fall to single digits with wind chills ranging from 0 to
-10F. Highs Thursday struggle to break into the 20s with some areas,
particularly the Thumb, favored to only top out in the teens. Some
moderation occurs Friday in advance of the next clipper dropping out
of northern Canada with temps recovering back towards freezing.
Widespread accumulating snowfall (an inch or two) is likely with
this system Friday followed by another round of scattered lake
effect snow showers/flurries and the return of arctic air for the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty southwest winds through the afternoon begin to decrease
slightly this evening. Isolated gusts to gales are possible within
the next few hours but observations thus far suggest lower column
stability will continue to hold the stronger magnitude winds aloft.
An arctic cold front will drop across the central Great Lakes
Wednesday morning with wind shifting NW to N. Winds again become
gusty to around 25 to 30 knots through the day which paired with
inbound arctic air will bring heavy freezing spray to Lake Huron,
where a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect. Ensemble guidance
retains less than a 30% chance for gusts to gales across
central/southern Lake Huron Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lake
effect snow squalls will increase in coverage through the day as
well and persist into Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds speeds
steadily decrease Thursday with a passing surface ridge axis, then
flip southerly by Friday ahead of the next clipper system.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

AVIATION...

An upper-level disturbance will bring the chance for scattered rain
showers through the remainder of the afternoon hours, with vfr
conditions expected to prevail. Some brief scouring out of cloud
cover will be possible after showers have ended as flow subtly backs
to the southwest. Clearing trends will open the door for some
stronger gust potential, with peak gusts ranging between 25 to 30
knots during the remaining daylight hours. Overnight, a cold front
will begin to work in across SE MI which will draw in lake moisture,
quickly bringing in mvfr cigs and snow showers. Some brief localized
stronger snow showers will be possible immediately along the cold
front, represented by a tempo group in the outgoing TAFs. Sustained
winds and gust potential increases in the wake of the front.

For DTW... a strong cold front reaches DTW between 9z-13z Wednesday
morning, marked by snow shower activity and an abrupt shift to
northwest flow. Snow will be greatest in intensity and coverage along
the front, although light snow showers may continue through the
morning. Breezy northwest winds develop behind the front, with gusts
generally holding below 30 knots to limit crosswind concerns at this
time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs aob 5000 feet today, high overnight.

* High for precipitation type of rain this afternoon. High for snow
  after 09Z Wednesday morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     morning for MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
     Thursday for LHZ361-362.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....AM


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