Redford, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

789
FXUS63 KDTX 181743
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
143 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight to Enhanced Risk for severe weather this afternoon into the
evening. Damaging wind gusts (70+ mph) and a few tornadoes will be
the main hazard potential, with large hail (1+ inch) as a secondary
hazard threat.

- Heavy downpours with repeated thunderstorm activity may lead to
localized flooding.

- Major warmup expected this weekend into early next week, with high
potential to see 90+ degrees and warm overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION...

A stalled frontal boundary near the I-69 corridor remains a focus
for convective initiation and additional storms early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a disturbance is driving a cluster of storms
across the Metro area that will depart over the next hour or two. A
humid air mass holds in place with enough instability recovery
expected to support a round of organized/linear convection later
this afternoon into the evening as a strong low lifts in from the
Mississippi Valley. This round is highlighted in the prevailing
+TSRA group. Some of these storms may be severe with gusts up to 50-
60 kt as well as torrential downpours dropping vsby to IFR or
briefly LIFR. Ceilings lower to MVFR/IFR as the low tracks through
the area tonight through Thursday morning, and showers are likely to
linger overnight as well. Slightly less humid northwest flow follows
through early Thursday with ceilings trending back toward VFR during
the afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Ongoing convection exits shortly with a
relative lull in activity this afternoon before a broken line of
showers arrives from the southwest between 22 and 23z. This will be
capable of severe weather as well as torrential rainfall. This is
followed by a dry slot with gusty southwest wind overnight.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for thunderstorms between 22 and 02z this afternoon and
  evening.

* Moderate for ceiling aob 5000 ft this afternoon, then high tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

UPDATE...

Severe storm potential remains the weather highlight across SE Mi
with a few twists and turns already to consider this morning for the
forecast this afternoon and this evening. The morning flare-up of
elevated convection across the Tri Cities and northern Thumb gained
enough coverage and intensity to fortify the surface front near the
I-69 corridor. Satellite trends suggest residual cloud cover will
maintain the gradient there while temperature increases across the
warm sector to the south. New development of surface based storms is
possible along this frontal zone early to mid afternoon. Strong
surface heating south of the front also gives the ongoing northern
Indiana cluster of storms a chance to become more surface based
during late morning to early afternoon with potential for increasing
impacts into SE Mi. All of these developments still leave ample time
for recovery of instability ahead of the primary MCV-driven event
that is on schedule for this evening. Mid morning observations
toward southern IL/northern MO show impressive MCV intensity poised
to interact with the larger scale warm sector having RAP CAPE
projections of 3000+ J/kg by 18Z. A strongly forced convective
system is expected to result which is timed into southern Lower Mi
toward 00Z this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

DISCUSSION...

For this morning... Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible either from the activity upstream
over Lake Michigan and/or off a frontal boundary that resides north
of I-69. Surface instability has waned through the overnight hours,
but ambient conditions within this humid airmass sustain elevated
instability with mid-level lapse rates aoa 6 C/km, bringing continued
chances for elevated convection.

SBCAPE rapidly rises through the daylight hours where there will be
multiple possible mechanisms for CI. Development along the
aforementioned front (which is projected to stall out generally
north of I-69) or upscale growth from upstream renewed development
sourcing from residual outflows or convergence along the land/lake
interface over Lake Michigan look to be the main mechanisms for any
early development. Free convection within the warm sector is also a
possible under this unstable airmass. As such, scattered to numerous
development will be likely and with CAPE building to 1,000-1,500
J/kg and 1-6 km shear ranging between 20-30 knots (stronger closer
to the front), organized updrafts will be supported. This brings the
chance for strong to severe thunderstorm development as early as
this afternoon, with initial threats favoring damaging wind gusts
from wet microbursts potential. A tornado cannot be ruled out given
any streamwise enhancement with the frontal boundary, and storm
relative hodographs do show streamwise vorticity through 3km, but
the magnitude of the shear is modest at best.

Severe weather coverage and threat potential will increase through
the evening hours with attention turning to a low pressure system
and convectively enhanced potent shortwave with a fast translation
speed that is projected to pivot right across Michigan in the later
afternoon and evening hours. There will likely be ongoing activity
across Illinois and Indiana that will pivot into the cwa where
strong thermodynamic and kinematics enhance the severe weather
threat. A strong low-level jet will nose into SE MI just downstream
of the wave with flow subtly backing aloft, greatly elongating the 1-
3 km shear vectors. An MCS/MCV with some embedded quasi-linear
structures will be likely where severe threats then pivot to
damaging wind gusts of 60-70+ mph, owing to any bowing segments
within the line. Embedded mesovorticies leading to tornadogenesis,
particularly where any bowing further enhances the streamwise
vorticity which is already favorable, is also possible.
Additionally, the front will again act as another spot for
tornadogenesis where backed surface winds along the boundary lead to
local enhancements to 0-1km SRH and streamwise vorticity ingestion.
Hail to an inch will be a secondary hazard with convection today,
but is less favorable due to the warm and humid conditions but
cannot be ruled out given any vigorous updraft or meso production.

Last, all thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours
leading to localized flooding concerns. Deformation northwest of the
low brings higher potential for prolonged rainfall totals. Please
see the hydrology section for additional flooding information.

The severe thunderstorm threat will end late tonight as
the system exits and instability wanes, but lingering precipitation
will be likely through the morning hours with the continued
advection of wrap around moisture. A shortwave trough pivots over
Michigan tomorrow afternoon, bringing renewed chances for showers
and thunderstorms with modest deep layer shear around 20 knots with
CAPE values building towards 1000 J/kg. Overall lack of forcing may
inhibit coverage potential. Saturday has the potential to be mainly
dry, pending the track of a shortwave with is expected to path over
northern Michigan at this time. The main story for next week will be
the ridge of high pressure that sets up across the eastern US and
Great Lakes which advects and hold 850mb temperatures up to 22C
across the state. This will be an extremely high confidence setup to
see well above normal temperatures that will challenge if not exceed
the 90 degree mark for several days this weekend into early next
week, pending storm chances. Heat indices may challenge 100F with
dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s.

MARINE...

A strong low lifts into the region today providing several rounds of
thunderstorms. Some of these storms could necessitate Special Marine
Warnings for locally higher winds and waves, in addition to an
isolated large hail and waterspout threat. Non-thunderstom gusts
should largely hold below Small Craft Advisory criteria amidst
veering ESE flow. Active pattern continues through the end of the
week as the system`s cold front stalls across the region Thursday.
Gradient winds strengthen, especially over Lake Huron, in the wake
of the low with northwest flow up to 20 knots. Another weak low is
expected heading into the weekend offering more showers and storms.

HYDROLOGY...

Gulf moisture feed pushes PW values near daily records (at or above
1.75") and offers heavy rain/flooding potential with storms today.
With this very warm/humid airmass, forecast soundings show warm
cloud depths of 12-15kft throughout the day increasing precip
efficiency with both any preceding showers/storms along the warm
front daytime today as well as convection with the low itself late
day.

Model guidance continues to show some support for training
convection during the day along the warm frontal boundary before the
arrival of the low which could boost overall QPF. Average rainfall
totals over the course of Wednesday will be 0.75-1.50 inches with
locally higher totals (1.5-3+") likely.

The Tri-Cities to northern Thumb will be most likely to see a larger
areal footprint of these higher end totals given both the
aforementioned thunderstorm training, but also noting any
deformation with the low pressure system and longer lasting rainfall
potential into the early morning hours. Being said, all strong
thunderstorms have the potential to rapidly produce a quick 1-2" of
accumulation in a short window, leading to localized flooding
potential for all locations across SE MI.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....TF
UPDATE.......BT
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....AM


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