Pittsfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXUS63 KDTX 102005
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
305 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions will accompany a cold front Monday afternoon
  with wind gusts 30 to 40 MPH

- Short-lived cooler/seasonable airmass Monday evening-Tuesday,
  followed by above average temperatures once again for the rest
  of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A pair of compact mid level waves will impact the Great Lakes during
the next 24 to 36 hours. The upper low over Wisconsin will lift
across the Straits region this evening before ejecting northeast of
the region later tonight. A brief interval of mid level subsidence
resulting from short wave ridging overnight will be followed by the
next wave. This short wave, currently over southern Saskatchewan, is
forecast to deepen as it tracks into Lake Superior Monday morning
before heading toward southern Quebec/nrn New England Monday night.

There will be strong adjustments in the mid level mass fields across
northern Lower Mi and Lake Huron late this afternoon/evening in
advance of this lead wave along with respectable mid level positive
PV advection. The mid level cold pool within the upper low (with
500mb temps down to -25C) will steepen mid level lapse rates. This
southern edge of this cold pool will traverse the northern portions
of the forecast area this evening. Model soundings indicate this
will steepen convective cloud depths to support showers. Given
equilibrium levels nearing -20C in the north (mainly along/north of I-
69), can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm. The coverage and
intensity of convective showers this evening will decrease farther
south toward metro Detroit and the Ohio border. This will be the
result of a more shallow convective layer and much drier air in the
mid levels. Low level cold air advection following the associated
sfc cold front will rapidly steepen low level lapse rates this
evening. This will result in breezy conditions given a solid core of
30-35 knots in the low levels. Model soundings do hint at a
potential near surface stable layer which may keep peak gusts around
30 MPH.

Mid level subsidence will overspread Se Mi overnight and persist
into Monday. Model soundings indicate ample low level moisture
remaining trapped under a deep inversion through at least early
Monday afternoon. Overall, the low level cold air advection will
remain weak allowing daytime highs to bounce back into the 50s under
steepening low level lapse rates. The bulk of the dynamics
associated with the wave set to move across the nrn lakes on Monday
will be focused well north of the forecast area, while extremely
dry mid level air rotates into Lower Mi within the base of the upper
wave. This will ensure a dry forecast along the late
afternoon/evening cold front. This front will have a much stronger
push of cold air as this upper wave is able to drive colder Canadian
air a little farther south. Steepening post frontal low level lapse
rates and a respectable low level wind field will place 35 to 40
knot winds within the top of the mixed layer late Mon
afternoon/evening. Based on available probabilistic guidance, peak
wind gusts in the 35 to 45 MPH range are most likely, just below
wind advisory criteria.

The flow across NOAM  will remain progressive through the end of the
week. Mid level ridging, sfc high pressure and dry air will dominate
conditions Tues into Wednesday. The next mid level wave will then
deliver a chance rain in the Wed night/Thursday time frame.

&&

.MARINE...

A diffuse area of low pressure will continue to track from northern
lower Michigan into the continental northeast this evening into
early tomorrow morning. A weak cold front will move over the state
in the wake of the departing low pressure system which will bring
renewed shower chances and will enhance mixing depths, increasing
wind speeds. Small Craft Advisories go into effect this evening for
all nearshore zones in response to the breezy conditions.

A secondary low pressure system will then drop in from western
Ontario into the northern Great Lakes tomorrow, bringing in even
cooler air while boosting over lake instability. This will continue
to increase wind speed and gust potential while wind direction veers
from west to north-northwest. Gusts to gales will be likely across
the greater portion of Lake Huron and into the Saginaw Bay Monday
morning into early Tuesday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect for
these aforementioned locations. This shift in wind direction will
also rapidly increase wave heights along the outer Saginaw Bay and
lake Huron shoreline through Tuesday. High pressure will then build
in Tuesday afternoon which will quickly bring light winds and dry
weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

AVIATION...

Abundant low level moisture currently over southeast Michigan, with
borderline IFR/LIFR cigs. Increasing mixing depths and surface wind
speeds ahead of a cold front late this afternoon/early this evening
should allow for improvement in cigs into MVFR, but scattered-
numerous convective showers likely to develop along the surface
convergence zone, with timing generally in the 21-2z time frame. A
weak thunderstorm not out of the question across MBS/FNT, closest to
the mid level cold core.

Post frontal cold westerly flow tonight into Monday expected to
maintain MVFR cigs, with perhaps the southern taf sites having a
brief period of scattered low clouds behind the front, and then
filling back in overnight. As colder air continues to make better
inroads and low level lapse rates steepen, increased mixing should
allow for some wind gusts aoa 30 knots tomorrow as winds also veer
around to the northwest during the late afternoon hours.

For DTW...Confidence in heavier showers late this afternoon has
diminished a bit (expected north of the terminal), but still
possible and went with a prob30. Gusty westerly winds tomorrow, with
gust around 30 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft into early evening, then
   medium.

*  Medium confidence in westerly crosswind threshold being met
   tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     LHZ442-443.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ361>363-
     421-422-441-462.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....SF


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