Farmington Hills, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

499
FXUS63 KDTX 151939
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
339 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend occurs through the first half of the week
  with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

- Warm and increasingly humid conditions support thunderstorm chances
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- There is a chance for severe weather and heavy rainfall Wednesday
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Seasonable conditions persist into the evening with highs generally
in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees in the Detroit Metro Area.
Exception to these temperature trends is around the Saginaw Valley
and Thumb regions where a thin cloud deck held on through early
afternoon to tamper daytime highs by a few degrees.

Broad upper level ridging takes control for the next few days, with
the existing deformation axis eroding in its favor. The pattern
shifts gradually to warmer and more humid conditions by mid-week,
specifically as a train of shortwaves draw this airmass from the
Mississippi River Valley into SE Michigan. Highs in the low 80s are
expected Monday before 850 mb temperatures warm into the mid teens
Tuesday and the upper teens Wednesday, equating to daytime highs at
least in the upper 80s. A handful of LREF ensemble members project
some urban areas could reach 90 degrees either day, but the
temperature forecast will be highly sensitive to any convective
cloud debris. This warmer airmass will be accompanied by return flow
from the Gulf to push dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s, creating
muggy conditions and priming the boundary layer for destabilization
during peak heating each day.

Monday looks to remain mostly dry with a remnant subsidence
inversion around 15.0 kft agl that caps convective prospects.
Surface pressure falls then commence late Monday night-Tuesday as a
progressive northern stream shortwave attempts to phase with a
slower cutoff low drifting toward the Ohio Valley. The latest 12z
model suite keeps the two systems separate, which shears morning
moisture transport to the south and east of the state line and
effectively limits precipitation chances. The lagging surface trough
then tracks through Tue afternoon-evening and takes of advantage of
building surface-based instability. Lackluster wind shear will
inhibit organized convection, although dry air entrainment may
enhance downdrafts on an isolated basis to support gusty winds of
40+ mph in any storms.

Potential for organized convection increases Wednesday as strong
synoptic forcing and wind shear overspread the Great Lakes. The
caveat to this is how buoyancy evolves throughout the day Wednesday,
as the Tuesday night wave looks to fully clear out existing
instability. This is further complicated by possible MCS development
Wednesday morning, with MCSs being notorious for disrupting theta-e
transport. So while the global/regional models look fairly
straightforward for Wednesday as of now, these types of setups can
be tricky with all of the convective influence and mesoscale
boundaries that can emerge. For now, this system passes the eye test
for both a severe weather and heavy rainfall threat for the
Wednesday afternoon-evening period. This is corrobated by national
guidance, with a 15% outlook region from SPC and Marginal Excessive
Rainfall outlook from WPC.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over eastern Canada maintains favorable marine
conditions through this evening before drifting east across New
England tonight. Light wind organizes out of the southeast on Monday
but remnant ridging maintains dry and stable conditions. A warm
front lifts into the Great Lakes on Tuesday which ushers in a warmer
and more unstable air mass on moderate south wind. Showers and
thunderstorms increase in likelihood by late in the day. An
unsettled pattern persists through the rest of the week as a series
of low pressure systems track through the region - showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

AVIATION...

Light northeast winds this afternoon with mid clouds over northern
sites dissipating toward evening. Mostly clear skies tonight into
Monday. However, low level winds shifting to the east-southeast will
attempt to usher in some low level moisture currently over the
Eastern Great Lakes. There is a low chance for high MVFR/low VFR
cloud deck developing Monday morning, mainly over southern the taf
sites.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected through this TAF
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......TF
AVIATION.....SF


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.