Farmington Hills, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

523
FXUS63 KDTX 130458
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1158 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler conditions today.

- Average to above average temperatures for the balance of the week.

- Next chance of rain will come Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure anchored over the region will maintain a low level
east to southeast flow this taf period. The underlying environment
remains quite dry, but there remains some potential for weak
moisture flux off lake Erie to result in lower stratus development
this morning. Forecast will maintain a lower end mention at this
stage until satellite trends offer greater confidence of occurrence.
Daytime heating will effectively mix and dry the environment,
affording a mainly clear sky Wednesday. Wind aoa 10 knots from the
southeast Wednesday. VFR conditions hold Wednesday night as high
clouds thicken in advance of an approaching low pressure system.

For DTW...Potential exists for a band of MVFR cloud from Lake Erie
to expand the airspace during the early morning hours, then lift
northward around sunrise/12Z Wednesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft late tonight and early
  Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

DISCUSSION...

Steady isentropic downglide through the day has resulted in a rising
MSLP field with the surface high now centered just north of Lake
Huron. Cooler and drier air has filtered in on the northeasterly
flow which has temperatures now reading roughly 10 degrees lower
than this time yesterday. Most lake clouds have cleared out with
plenty of sunshine that will lead us into a mostly clear night.
There may be some Lake Erie clouds around overnight as flow shifts
more east to southeasterly late, but otherwise favorable radiating
conditions will result in low temps mainly in the 20s (away from
Metro Detroit and areas downwind of the lakes which will stay in the
mid 30s).

High pressure retains influence heading into Wednesday with quiet
and mild weather, but high clouds will gradually increase through
the day after the upper ridge axis passes east. Low pressure
emerging over the High Plains this afternoon will migrate across the
Midwest tomorrow and begin to pick up a plume of deep Gulf moisture.
This will be transported northward into the Great Lakes along the
system`s warm advective wing with models honing in on deep
saturation and lift arriving after midnight tomorrow night. The nose
of the 40 kt southerly LLJ will position directly into southern
Lower MI with system relative flow oriented perpendicular to
isentropes highlighting efficient ascent, boosted even more by
dynamic support aloft as jet exit forcing slides overhead. With
PWATs nearing 1 inch this system is forecast to bring widespread
rainfall of a quarter to half inch of rainfall mainly during the
morning hours Thursday.

Dry slot arrival and departure of the LLJ will bring a reduction in
rainfall rates and coverage by the afternoon, but additional
scattered showers will carry into the evening as the center of the
upper low tracks overhead. Cold advection behind the occluded system
will be relatively weak and do not anticipate a significant cool-
down for the late week. Friday looks slightly unsettled as an
inverted trough is slow to depart, and there may be a few sprinkles
or drizzle around early. Otherwise an elongated area of high
pressure will quickly expand over the Great Lakes this weekend with
benign weather likely. Temperatures through the period will hover
near or above normal with highs mainly in the 50s.

MARINE...

High pressure (1032 MB) over northern Ontario this afternoon with
the ridge axis extending south through the Central Great Lakes has
allowed wind speeds to diminish around 15 knots or less, and small
craft advisories will be allowed to expire. However, the lighter
winds and low waves will be short lived, as return southeast-south
flow develops tonight and wind gusts peak out in the 20 to 25 knot
range tomorrow into Thursday ahead of low pressure system tracking
in from the Midwest. As such, another round of small craft
advisories will be issued as waves exceed 4 feet over the southern
lake Huron basin. Showers will develop Wednesday night and continue
on Thursday, with winds diminishing late in the day as the low
arrives. This low looks to be in a weakening process, thus wind
speeds behind this system are expected to be light as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the region on Friday and into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY...

A warm front and low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall
to the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Upwards of one half
inch of rain may fall in some locations with this system, mainly
during the morning hours Thursday. Flooding concerns are not
anticipated from this rainfall.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday for
     LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.