Dearborn, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

054
FXUS63 KDTX 282343
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
743 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers continue through the evening hours north of I-69.

- Spotty showers are possible Thursday with a chance for isolated
  thunderstorms late in the day Friday.

- Seasonable cool and dry this weekend before a notable warm-up
  ensues next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

A band of showers is lifting northward across the region this
evening on the lead edge of an upper level trough axis. A pool of
moisture immediately south of the line is supportive of some lower
CIGs/VSBYs and drizzle for a few hours but conditions a bit further
south and west over Chicago and central IN are much improved. So
could be a fine line across southern TAF sites of MVFR to VFR.
Models continue to advertise widespread IFR conditions tonight but
with them over advertising for hours already, will go with mostly
low MVFR until there are better signs in the obs. Axis of moisture
will pivot across Mid MI tonight before pealing off to the east
Thursday so will keep longer mention of MVFR/IFR conditions across
those locations. Diurnal heating will lift CIGs Thursday with some
hires models producing some afternoon showers with the lingering
moisture. Something to watch moving forward.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected today and
tonight.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 through Thursday morning.
  Moderate Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025

DISCUSSION...

An elongated closed off mid/upper low will linger across the Midwest
and Great Lakes region as southern stream occluded low pressure
lifts north across western Lake Erie to Georgian Bay today and
tonight. Stronger deformation forcing amidst these two features is
bringing the increased shower potential this afternoon into tonight.
Activity today will become more focused along the I-69 corridor and
points north this evening and tonight as better forcing rolls north
into this region with time. Lack of any instability will keep mention
of thunder out of the forecast. Overall coverage expected to wane
over time tonight across the north with predominately dry conditions
south of I-69. Average rainfall amounts by 8 am tomorrow morning are
expected to remain light to around a quarter inch or less for most of
southeast Michigan. The abundance of cloud cover this afternoon will
help keep temperatures in 60s this afternoon and limit the nocturnal
swing with temperatures tonight holding mainly in the 50s.

Cool cyclonic flow hanging over the region tomorrow will again bring
another day largely in the 60s. There will be sufficient moisture
available in the boundary layer as lower level winds become
northwesterly to support low PoP scattered showers during the
afternoon during peak heating with increased low level lapse rates.
Coincidentally, there will be an attempt for clouds to begin to break
up during the afternoon into the evening as a period of subsidence
ensues amidst any weak showers that are able to develop.

A weak cold front will drop south associated with a Hudson Bay low
as broader troughing encompasses the northeast CONUS. The front along
with additional PV advection will provide enough support for another
round of ran chances Friday into Friday night. Thunder will be
possible given improved instability and mid level lapse rates. Ahead
of the front will be supply of warm air advection, which will help
draw temperatures upward into the 70s for Friday afternoon.

Troughing continues over the northeast CONUS and Great Lakes, but a
surface high pressure will build into the region during the weekend
resulting in dry conditions as lower level winds become north-
northwest. Post frontal airmass will bring temperatures back down
into the 60s to low 70s for the weekend. An expected strong warm up
arrives early next week with southwest return flow drive strong warm
advection into southeast Michigan. Temperatures by Monday will push
into the upper 70s to low 80s by Monday and well into the 80s for
Tuesday and Wednesday under a long wave ridge. With the warm air
will also come increased instability and the associated
increased chance for thunderstorms.

MARINE...

A weak low pressure system will continue to advance across the Great
Lakes region this afternoon and will slowly track eastward through
Thursday.  Easterly flow through the evening will shift and become
northwesterly/westerly while wind speeds generally remain under 20
knots. Numerous showers will also continue to impact the area during
this time with waves in the nearshore waters not increasing above 4
feet.  Westerly winds will prevail and increase later Thursday into
Friday as a cold front begins to shift southward across the Great
Lakes.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......SS


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.