Canton, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

670
FXUS63 KDTX 141113
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
613 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An arctic front brings snow showers and plummeting temperatures to
SE Michigan today. Snowfall accumulations generally hold below an
inch today.

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Huron and Sanilac Counties
as lake effect banding may produce snow accumulations over 6 inches.

- Much colder late this week and into next weekend. Thursday morning
wind chills reach negative single digits for most areas.

- Periodic chances for snow will exist Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Arctic front on pace to sweep southeast across the area between 12z
and 15z this morning. Some pockets of drizzle or very light rain
will precede the frontal passage. Wind shift from southwest to
northwest with an increase magnitude and gustiness as much colder
air floods through the rest of the day. Ascent within the immediate
wake of this front may afford some narrow higher intensity bands of
snow showers, offering brief disruption of visibility to IFR/MVFR. A
secondary period for a greater coverage of snow showers tied to the
trailing mid level during the mid-late afternoon period. There
remains potential for some form of light snow shower or flurries to
linger beyond 00z, as the cloud layer remains in a favorable
environment for snow growth. Despite the drying arctic profile,
forecast will maintain a high degree of low cloud tonight at this
stage.

For DTW... Strong cold front brings a wind shift to northwest near
15z, with a window for brief higher intensity snow showers late
morning. Additional snow shower potential during the late day
period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for cigs aob 5000 feet today. Medium tonight.

* High for snow as precipitation type through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

DISCUSSION...

Strong arctic front is making inroads across northern Michigan at
issuance, and will dive south across lower Michigan through the
morning. Notable drop in temperature and dewpoint behind the front,
with temperature readings over northern lower MI in the upper 20s
compared to upper 30s locally. Radar echoes upstream show scattered
snow showers behind the fropa as hydrometeors attempt to overcome
the dry arctic airmass. Moisture quality will be a concern
throughout the day, with only the lowest 10.0 kft agl or so staying
saturated. Highest rates for the daytime hours have started to trend
more toward the afternoon-early evening hours with the mid level
wave rather than the morning frontal passage. Overall, a quick
dusting to inch of accumulation is possible by sunset and could lead
to some slick conditions for the evening commute as temperatures
fall into the upper teens this evening. Breezy northwest flow also
develops post-front, with gusts around 30 mph today and tonight.

The mid level wave closes off as it drifts into Lake Huron tonight,
stalling its eastward progress until Thursday morning. Latest model
trends hold on to the wrap around moisture plume longer than
previous indications, keeping snow showers in play across all of SE
Michigan until the moisture plume vacates Thursday morning.
Additional minor accumulations remain possible overnight for the
broader SE Michigan footprint, before tapering off Thursday morning.
Exception to this is the Thumb region, which remains in contention
for warning-level snowfall amounts by Thursday morning. Textbook
lake effect convergence banding emerges on the backside of the low,
connecting with moisture flux off of Lake Huron to bring a narrow
swath of 6+ inch potential to Huron/Sanilac Counties. A Winter Storm
Watch remains in effect as a result. There are a couple of factors
that make this particular event capable of warning-level snowfall:
1. cold thermal profiles are conducive for efficient microphysics
and high snow ratios, and 2. additional forcing (aside from pure
convergence) as vorticity lobes pivot around the low. Strong
consideration was given to upgrading the Winter Storm Watch, but the
scenario where this band is directed offshore is still a real
possibility. Opted to keep the watch in tact to allow a better look
at observations through the day.

Snow tapers off gradually from interior portions of the state to the
shoreline as subsidence takes hold. The main story Thursday will be
much colder temperatures, with sub-zero wind chills expected to
start the day. Temperatures moderate only into the upper teens to
low 20s which is a big difference from the mid-40s we saw yesterday.
This is followed by quick turnaround to another round of
accumulating snowfall Friday as a clipper system impacts SE
Michigan. This system exhibits more synoptic support, with the main
area of snow being tied to a deep layer of moist isentropic
ascent/warm advection that arrives Friday morning. Thermal profiles
at the start of the event feature a roughly 10.0 kft isothermal
layer that falls right within the dendritic growth zone, although
this changes through the event as differential thermal advection
makes profiles much more convective. Attm, conditions look to stay
sub-advisory Friday with accumulations of 1-3 inches expected.

Cold and snowy conditions then persist this weekend into early next
week as deep longwave troughing remains nearly stationary east of
the Rockies. Relentless flux of clipper systems out of Alaska follow
almost identical paths as they carve southeast into the Great Lakes.
Highest confidence item with these systems is several reinforcing
shots of arctic air, with the coldest temperatures expected early
next week with potential for wind chills to drop below zero degrees.
There is also high confidence in periods of accumulating snow
through the weekend-early next week, but with uncertainty in timing
and magnitude of each system. The resident arctic airmass keeps the
highly efficient dendritic growth zone within reach, meaning any of
these systems could grind out a few inches of accumulation even in
low QPF scenarios. This pattern continues through the entire long
term period.

MARINE...

An arctic cold front drops across the central Great Lakes this
morning with wind direction veering to NW and N through the day.
Wind becomes gusty to around 25 to 30 knots with isolated gusts to
35 knot gales possible at times through tonight. There remains less
than a 30% probability for prolonged gales and no headlines are
anticipated. The gusty wind and inbound arctic air bring increasing
coverage of snow squalls and heavy freezing spray to Lake Huron, and
a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect. Winds speeds
steadily decrease Thursday with a passing surface ridge axis, then
flip southerly by Friday ahead of the next clipper system. This
system stalls in the vicinity through Saturday, producing additional
snow showers as more arctic air arrives to the region.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from 3 PM EST this afternoon through Thursday
     morning for MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ361-362.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......TF

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