Wheaton, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

845
FXUS61 KLWX 140900
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong, reinforcing cold front will move through the area
tonight. High pressure will briefly build toward the area
tomorrow, before a clipper system approaches from the northwest
on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back in for
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery over the
Western Great Lakes early this morning will approach the area
from the northwest during the day today, before passing
overhead tonight. Skies are currently clear across much of the
area, and should remain clear through much of the morning.
However, clouds will be on the increase through the afternoon
as the aforementioned shortwave disturbance tracks toward the
area. This system will be moisture starved in nature, but the
combination of synoptic scale ascent and upslope flow will be
enough to produce snow showers this afternoon into tonight in
the Alleghenies. Around 2-3 inches of very light, fluffy snow is
expected by late tonight. Winds will also be gusty out of the
west, which could lead to blowing snow at times. Further east, a
few passing flurries can`t be ruled out this afternoon, but
conditions should remain predominantly dry.

Steady cold advection has been ongoing all night, causing
temperatures to drop into the 20s and lower 30s. Temperatures
shouldn`t increase much today, with high temperatures in the
upper 20s to mid 30s for most (teens in the mountains).
Northwesterly winds will make it feel even colder, with wind
chills in the teens and 20s (single digits above/below zero in
the mountains). A strong, reinforcing cold front will move
through in the wake of the departing shortwave overnight. This
will lead to an uptick in winds, and cause temperatures to drop
back into the teens tonight (single digits mountains). Wind
chills will reach -10 to -20 in the Alleghenies and along the
Blue Ridge, where Cold Weather Advisories are in effect tonight.
Wind chills are expected to bottom out around 0 to 5 across the
lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build to our southwest tomorrow, leading to
decreased snow shower activity in the mountains, and completely
dry conditions further east. It will remain cold and windy, with
high temperatures only in the 20s to lower 30s at lower
elevations, and teens in the mountains.

A clipper system embedded in northwesterly flow aloft will
track toward the area on Thursday. This system will have
slightly more moisture to work with, and should produce a
period of snow showers in the mountains Thursday into Thursday
night. Some locally heavier bursts of snow may be possible at
times, and a general 3-6 inches of snow appears likely in the
Alleghenies, with locally higher totals possible. Flurries will
once again be possible to the east of the mountains, and there
may be a small chance for some steadier snow showers to spread
further east and produce a quick coating of snow. Locations
between the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge (I-81 corridor), as well
as northern Maryland should have the best chance (east of the
Alleghenies) to experience a brief snow shower Thursday
afternoon. It will be yet another cold day, with mostly cloudy
skies and high temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s at lower
elevations and 20s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For Friday and into the weekend, broad troughing is expected over
the CONUS with ridging in place off the West Coast. Guidance is in
agreement on the broad upper trough generally digging southward in
the west/central CONUS, but otherwise, solutions begin to vary
significantly between the major ensembles regarding smaller
features. At this time, the features of most concern appear to be a
possible shortwave digging into the southwest US before being swept
into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic around Saturday, and the strength
and position of the upper low over east/central Canada and any
embedded shortwaves Sunday/Monday. These two time periods appear to
be the most likely shots for precip in the extended (east of the
mountains).

As the upper trough digs south, our area will be squarely in W/SW
flow aloft as Arctic area descends into the Plains. As a result,
increasingly colder temperatures are expected through the extended.
Friday starts near normal in the 40s, and Saturday is expected to be
a bit milder in the mid-upper 40s with southerly flow ahead of an
approaching cold front. Confidence is increasing for most of the
area seeing at least some precip Saturday, likely in the form of
rain given the temperatures.

For Sunday/Monday, temperatures are expected to drop behind the cold
front, with highs in the 30s-low 40s Sunday and 20s-30s Monday (and
likely colder in the mountains. If features align well for favorable
forcing and moisture, wintry precip is possible in this time frame.
There are still many unknowns this far out, but we will continue to
monitor the potential for an impactful winter system.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. Some flurries may
spill east of the mountains both this afternoon, and again on
Thursday, but steadier snow isn`t anticipated at this time.
Winds will be out of the northwest through Wednesday night.
Gusts are expected to reach around 20 knots during the day
today, 25-35 knots tonight, and then around 25-30 knots on
Wednesday. Winds will become southwesterly on Thursday.

VFR conditions are expected Friday with high pressure nearby.
Westerly winds turn SW and then S as high pressure to our south
slides east. Winds increase out of the south Saturday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Conditions may deteriorate with any
precipitation as the cold front moves through. Winds turn NW behind
the front Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue within northwesterly flow today. A
surge of stronger winds in northwesterly flow will occur tonight
behind a reinforcing cold front. Gale Warnings are in effect for
all waters tonight. SCAs will likely be needed Wednesday through
at least part of Wednesday night in continued northwesterly
flow. Winds finally decrease to sub-SCA levels out of the
southwest on Thursday, but could near low-end SCA levels over
the widest waters.

W/NW winds over the waters early Friday will gradually turn
southerly by Friday evening as high pressure passes to our south.
Winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front and may reach SCA
criteria late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Behind the cold
front Saturday night, winds turn NW and diminish.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Offshore flow behind a series of fronts will result in declining
water levels through mid week. The strongest negative surge will
take place tonight into Wednesday, when blowout conditions will
be possible. Water levels will return closer to normal by
Thursday as winds take a more southwesterly direction.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     MDZ008.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MDZ001.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Wednesday for MDZ001.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for MDZ501.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VAZ503.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Wednesday for VAZ503.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for VAZ504-507-508.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ501-
     505.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Wednesday for WVZ501-505.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for WVZ503-506.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ530>543.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...KJP/CAS
MARINE...KJP/CAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX