Salisbury, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

508
FXUS61 KAKQ 232005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
305 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild conditions prevail through Wednesday. A backdoor
cold front slides across the area later Christmas Day, and will
bring cool and damp temperatures by Friday. The weekend turns
warmer ahead of the next cold front approaching from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Clearing and not as cool tonight. Lows in the upper 30s to
  near 40 north, low to mid 40s central and south.

- Mild and dry Wednesday, remaining mild but with a chance for
  showers Christmas Day.

Latest surface analysis shows 1032mb high pressure offshore of the
mid-Atlantic coast, ridging back across the southeast CONUS. To the
north, with ~1010mb sfc low pressure continues to cross the upper
Great Lakes into southern Ontario. The associated warm front
lifted through the region earlier in the day, bringing some
showers to the region this morning. Temperatures have warmed
largely as expected in clearing behind the system. 19z Temps
have warmed into the mid to upper 50s across the piedmont and
I-95 corridor as of this writing, with cooler mid 40s to low 50s
across the Hampton Roads area and the eastern shore, where
clearing has been a bit slower in coming. Breezy and milder for
the rest of the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s
inland and low to mid 50s at the coast still looking good, under
a gradually clearing sky.

The low slides into Quebec tonight, with the weak trailing cold
front crossing into the local area late tonight. Not as cool
tonight ahead of the front, with lows ranging from the mid/upper
30s N to the mid 40s S under a mostly clear sky.

Mainly sunny tomorrow, as high pressure builds into the region
from the Ohio Valley. While the CAA is comprised of more drier
air than colder air, especially with downslope flow aloft, NNE
low-level flow nonetheless bring a modest cool down. Forecast
highs in the upper 40s to low 50s north, upper 50s to near 60
central and south. Mainly clear/sunny to begin the day, with
increasing afternoon clouds with WAA aloft ahead of the next
system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Increasing clouds Wednesday night with a few showers possible
  Christmas morning.

- Remaining mild Thursday, but turning colder Thursday night.

Increasing evening clouds, but otherwise a pleasant Christmas
Eve with lows mainly in the 40s. Another weak clipper low slides
across the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic early Thursday
morning. Increasing, but relatively shallow overrunning
moisture will result in clouds and a chc of showers, with a
backdoor frontal boundary likely serving as the focus for
showers. There is a low chance that a few wet snowflakes could
mix in briefly initially north of I-64 with wetbulbing effects.
However, given the dry antecedent conditions and slightly slower
timing, would expect little more than some light rain showers
or sprinkles Christmas Day. QPF through 00z Friday remains less
than 0.10".

Behind the system, 1032+mb high pressure trailing the system
will shunt the front south through the region Thursday
afternoon and night. The exact timing of the backdoor cold front
ultimately be crucial in determining if we ultimately see
falling temperatures for the northern half of the area or if
temperatures hold until Thursday evening. As of now, have
followed closely to ECENS/GEFS blend that pushes the front
through Thursday night, with a mild, mostly cloudy Christmas Day
in the warm sector. Highs Thursday in the upper 40s to low 50s
northern neck/eastern shore, with upper 50s to lower 60s
elsewhere, except low to mid 60s far SW. Mostly cloudy and
colder Thu night with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s NE to the
upper 30s to low 40s S/SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and damp Friday, then slowly turning milder this weekend.

- A strong cold front crosses the area late in the weekend. A
  few showers are possible with this frontal passage, followed
  by markedly colder conditions for the middle of next week.

An anomalously strong upper ridge is still expected to persist
and even strengthen across the central CONUS late in the week
into the weekend. However, with another strong ridge forecast
to amplify upstream in the vicinity of Greenland, an upper
level trough is now forecast by all models to become rather
strong over northern New England and Atlantic Canada in between
the 2 ridges. This a somewhat typical result of the negative
phase of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), which will make
for a high likelihood of a backdoor cold front stalling and
becoming quiasi-stationary just S of the region Friday into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. The NBM continues to
(finally) catch up to the trend that global deterministic and
ensemble guidance has been showing for the few model cycles.
While the brunt of the polar airmass is directed toward the
northern mid-Atlantic and northeast, with the front through the
area and high pressure ridging down the eastern seaboard, Friday
is increasingly looking to be chilly and damp with light rain
showers highs generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s north,
with lower 50s possible over the far south.

There are even some ensemble members showing 30-50% probs for
~1" of snow on the MD eastern shore Friday, though with lighter
precipitation rates/weak forcing anticipated, have maintained
forecast as predominately rain with this forecast cycle, though
a slight chance snow mention has been included for the eastern
shore. The surface high and backdoor front will be slow to
retreat to the NE Saturday, so clouds and cooler temperatures
are likely to linger through Saturday over at least the northern
neck and eastern shore, and have undercut temperatures a bit
north of I-64.

The longwave pattern undergoes a rather quick transition Sunday
as the upper ridge shifts to the east coast and amplifies.
Meanwhile, a trough develops in vicinity of the Great Lakes.
This trough then digs SE and deepens as it remains in vicinity
of the East Coast early next week. A strong cold front will
precede the upper trough and cross the region Sunday night.
We`ll have a warm day ahead of the cold front Sunday (well into
the 60s with some lower 70s possible SE), with another chance
for widespread precipitation coming with the frontal passage
Sunday evening. Behind the front, strong cold advection later
Sunday night and Monday allow for plummeting temperatures, with
the incoming (dry) cP airmass dropping temperatures from above
normal this weekend to below normal. The exact timing remains
less than certain at this time range, but with thicknesses
holding up, it is looking increasingly likely that below normal
temperatures return Monday afternoon/night, with those cold
temperatures looking to persist into the beginning of 2026.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the
18z/23 TAF period. Some LLWS has been included for a 3-5 hr
period this aftn at PHF/ORF/ECG where the low level jet brings
WSW winds to 45-50 kt. Otherwise, winds diminish through the
late aftn into the evening gradually clearing sky. Dry tonight
with light W-SW winds shifting to the N-NW overnight.

Outlook: High pressure rebuilds into the area on Wednesday, with
continued VFR conditions expected. A frontal boundary and fast
moving low pressure system will bring a low end chc for showers
Christmas Day, with SBY having the highest chc for flight
restrictions. Additional short-lived flight restrictions are
possible late Friday afternoon into early Saturday as onshore
flow develops.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for the
coastal waters Wednesday.

- More widespread SCA conditions are expected behind a cold front
Thursday night.

Gusty SW winds are occuring over the local waters this afternoon,
particularly across the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay.
However, winds have been decreasing quickly and have cancelled all
SCAs for today. There will likely be a pronounced lull in the winds
tonight, as the direction becomes westerly. Winds ramp up again
Wednesday morning and become northerly behind another frontal
boundary. While this is technically a "cold" front, models
depict very little, if any, cold advection, with most of the
wind driven by a tightened pressure gradient and then ~5mb/6h
pressure rises late Wednesday morning. Model guidance suggests
winds will be highest on the coastal waters, with lower
confidence in reaching SCA criteria on the bay. Regardless, this
will be a rather brief event and winds should diminish again
Wednesday evening. SCAs have been issued for the coastal waters
and Currituck Sound, but will hold off for the Chesapeake Bay
due to lower confidence and probabilities. They may need to be
added with future updates if modeled winds trend upward.

High pressure settles over the eastern CONUS Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing much lighter winds. Another disturbance and cold
front dive southeastward toward the area later Christmas Day and SW
winds could briefly approach SCA thresholds in the late afternoon
and evening. Behind the front, northerly winds increase to 15-25 kt
and SCAs are becoming increasingly likely for most of the local
waters. Lingering NE winds of 10-15 kt prevail into Friday.
Generally benign marine conditions are then favored Friday night
through the weekend.

Seas generally stay 3-4 ft through Wednesday, but could near 5 ft if
winds overperform the current forecast. 4-6 ft seas (locally higher)
are expected Thursday night through Friday morning. Forecasted waves
in the Chesapeake Bay average 1-2 ft, but briefly increase to 2-4 ft
Wednesday and again Thursday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ633-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...KMC