Salisbury, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

161
FXUS61 KAKQ 231923
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
223 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and cold temperatures continue this evening and into
tonight, with strong high pressure over the region. Weak low
pressure off the southeast coast brings light precipitation to
southern portions of the area Tuesday. Temperatures warm back to
near normal by the middle of the week, with milder weather and
a more unsettled pattern late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry conditions continue through this evening.

- Ice potential has decreased late tonight into Tuesday morning.

This afternoon, ~1038 mb high pressure is centered over the New
England states and extends down into the Mid Atlantic. A weak
disturbance is located well NW of the area over the upper Midwest,
and another weak disturbance is beginning to develop off the
northern FL coast.

Plentiful sunshine over the area this afternoon with strong, Arctic
high pressure in control. Winds are calm to light and variable
areawide due to the placement of the high. It is another chilly
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s north to the
lower 40s southeast. Temperatures climb a few more degrees, with
highs ranging from the mid 30s north/northwest to the low to mid 40s
across the southeast. Temperatures will again drop off very quickly
after sunset with very dry air/mainly clear skies over the area.
Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 20s inland to
around 30 closer to the coast and across the southeast.

Weak low pressure develops off the GA/SC coast later tonight into
Tuesday morning and gradually lifts north before sliding out to see
near the NC/SC border later Tuesday afternoon. Light moisture
spreads into far SE portions of the area early Tuesday morning in
advance of the weak low. Pretty much every main model/CAM have
trended slightly further south with the low, bringing less moisture
up into the local area. Very dry air right at and above the surface
will also help to limit precipitation potential, especially further
NW. As a result, the freezing rain/icing trend has diminished from
the previous forecast with little to no ice accumulation now
expected. There is still a brief window for at least a slight chance
of freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle, mainly across interior
northeast NC, southern south-central VA, and into portions of the
western Tidewater, from approximately 5-8 AM. Again, this is not
expected to accumulate, but one should still be mindful of untreated
bridges, roadways, and elevated surfaces, especially if the the
precipitation comes in slightly heavier than forecast. Any freezing
rain threat comes to an end by 8 AM at the latest as temperatures
warm above freezing. Light rain showers will then be focused mainly
across northeast NC into far southeastern VA, with the highest
chances closer to the Albemarle Sound Tuesday morning into early
afternoon, before the better rain chances shift to the east and come
to an end. Total QPF from this system will be minimal, with up to
0.10" possible along the Albemarle Sound. Skies become partly to
mostly sunny during the second half of the day, with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s (around 50 across the SW).

In addition to the weak coastal low, a weak disturbance will be
passing well to our north tonight into Tuesday AM. This will mainly
bring an increase in cloud cover across the northern half of the
forecast area, but cannot rule out a brief period of wintry mix
across mainly far northern portions of the MD Eastern Shore Tuesday
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather for Christmas day and Christmas night.

By Christmas day high pressure will move just north of the area
bringing back drier weather conditions. With the high located to the
north temperatures will be slightly below seasonal highs with
temperatures rising in the middle 40s inland and upper 40s along the
coast. Overnight, lows will plummet into the upper 20s and lower 30s
under partly cloudy skies. High pressure will continue to linger
over New England Thursday keeping temperatures relatively the same
across the region with highs in the middle to upper 40s and lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonable temperatures will make a return through the forecast
period.

- Multiple frontal systems will pass through the area bringing
chances of rain.

Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a potent ridge remaining
in control through Friday into Saturday. The high pressure over New
England will keep the region dry under mostly clear skies.
Temperatures will begin to rise with the upper level ridge support
and highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and middle
50s across the southeast for Friday. Lows for Friday will only drop
into  lower 30s inland and middle to upper 30s along the coast. As
Saturday approaches there is some disagreement in the ensembles. The
CMC has a weaker low pressure system tracking across the the Great
Plains while the GEFS has a stronger system. The strength of this
system will determine if it can weaken the ridge and allow rain to
return to the region. Even though there is disagreement in strength
there is a decent agreement that there could potentially be some
isolated showers along a warm front late Saturday. However, at this
time PoPs for Saturday remain between 15-25%. Highs for Saturday
will be in the middle  to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. By the end of the weekend and early next week the
ensembles continue to hint on a negatively titled trough digging
in across the Ohio River Valley. This trough will bring in a
potential low pressure system that will bring in a decent chance of
widespread rain showers across the CWA. Will note that there is a
disagreement in the strength of the trough. With this disagreement
Pops have been capped off at 40% until there is better agreement
within the ensembles.  Highs for both Sunday and Monday will be in
the middle to upper 50s. Lows for Sunday are in the lower to middle
40s while Mondays lows will be in the middle to upper 30s.

The latest ensemble guidance continues to show an potent ridge
building in across the central United States and a strong upper
level trough digging in just off the coast. Strong high pressure
then builds into the region Sunday night into Monday. Lows
potentially drop into the mid teens to lower 20s by Monday morning.
Winds late Monday will begin to shift to the southeast as the high
pressure moves off the coast. However, temperatures will only warm
into the middle 30s to lower 40s across the area. Cold morning lows
in the upper teens to mid 20s are still possible Tuesday, but will
be dependent on how much cloud cover arrives with warming
temperatures aloft. Highs moderate into the mid 40s NW to lower 50s
SE Tuesday with increasing clouds likely. By Christmas day latest
ensemble guidance shows a weak shortwave moving across the are
possibly giving way to a weak system allowing for chances of rain
across the CWA. At this time Pops remain between 20-25% as there is
some disagreement with the timing and strength of the system with
models. In terms of what precipitation will fall it will mostly be
rain showers as temperatures stay above freezing throughout the day.
Highs for christmas will be in the lower to middle 40s inland and
upper 40s and lower 50s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions are expected at all of the TAF sites through the
18z/23 forecast period.

SKC conditions at all sites this afternoon with light and
variable winds due to high pressure being centered over the
area. Clouds thicken later tonight across the northern and
southern TAF sites as two disturbances approach the area.
Moisture increases late in the night into early Tuesday AM,
leading to the potential for some light rain at ECG around ~12z
Tuesday. The low-end rain chances spread further north during
the morning hours, potentially impacting ORF and PHF (~20%
chance). There is the potential for some light freezing
rain/rain mix at the onset of the precipitation early Tuesday
AM, but this is expected to be further inland and away from any
TAF sites.

Outlook: There is a low potential for MVFR CIGs to build into
ECG early Tuesday afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected to prevail Tuesday through much of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Weak low pressure develops offshore and south/southeast of the
area Tuesday, bringing some potential for elevated winds and seas
over the southern coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

N-NE winds are 5-10 kt across the local waters this afternoon as
high pressure settles over the area. To our south and southeast,
weak low pressure is taking shape just offshore of NC along an
inverted coastal trough. Seas are running 2-3 ft, highest in
the southern waters, while waves in Chesapeake Bay are 1-2 ft or
less. Light winds are expected through tonight as the flow
shifts southerly and then briefly westerly around sunrise
Tuesday. Another area of (weak) low pressure develops later
Tuesday, tracking E-NE south of the area Wednesday. While direct
impacts are unlikely from this low here, the gradient should
tighten sufficiently for N-NNE winds to increase to 10-18 kt on
the coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday...perhaps up to
20 kt S of the Cape Charles. Local wind probs for sustained
winds >18 kt are 70-90% in these areas with only 20-30% in the
Chesapeake Bay. Still, winds are largely forecast to remain sub-
SCA. The other aspect to keep an eye on will be the building
seas with the NNE flow. For now, seas are forecast to build to
3-5 ft S of Cape Charles and 3-4 ft further N. Marginal SCAs may
eventually be required for these seas. Waves in the bay also
potentially increase to 2-3 ft. Winds remain NNE for most of
the week, but subside to 10-15 kt beyond Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW