Bel Air South, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS61 KLWX 101959
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
259 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the area through tonight as low
pressure moves from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and
southeastern Canada. A trailing cold front will cross the region
Monday, then a secondary dry cold front will cross the area
Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the middle of the week
before another frontal system crosses Thursday into Friday. High
pressure returns by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes and into New
England tonight. A warm front is to our north and a cold front
is to our west making its way southeastward slowly tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers will gradually fill in on radar
from west to east as the front gets closer to us. Rain amounts
should average one tenth to one quarter of an inch tonight with
higher amounts in the northwest in areas closer to the front.
Temperatures have reach the lower 60s in many places behind the
warm front and in areas where some sun was able to peek through
the clouds. Expect temperatures to fall only into the 50s and
maybe upper 40s tonight as there will be showers around as well
as cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
With the cold front sagging slowly across our region during the
day Monday, additional light to moderate showers are expected
along it, primarily through midday. Additional rain amounts of
one-tenth to one quarter of an inch possible with additional one
half inch in the northwest zones. Clearing skies expected behind
the passing front later on Monday. With a downsloping airflow
off of the higher terrain on Monday with building high to our
west and northwest, Monday`s high temperatures will be warmer
than this afternoon`s highs. Temperatures could top out in the
lower to middle 70s east of I-81 and south of I-70. Elsewhere to
the west and north will be mainly 60s. More seasonable
temperatures Monday night and Tuesday with dry conditions
expected on Tuesday. Tuesday will be a more windier day behind a
secondary cold front. With dry conditions and little rainfall
from the previous two days, we may have to revisit the fire
weather threat on Tuesday. Please see the Fire Weather section
below.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian high pressure settles in during the middle portion of
the week supporting fair weather and cooler than normal
temperatures. An upper level low over the upper Midwest drops
down into the area Thursday. Energy with this system will be
shearing off and getting absorbed into large upper level trough
over the NW Atlantic. Light showers are possible with this
system Thu-Thu evening. Then, mid-upper level ridging builds for
the end of the week leading to a warming trend and fair
weather.

 &&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered rain showers passing through the terminals late this
afternoon, tonight and through midday Monday. We don`t
anticipate any significant reduction in visbis and cigs...should
be VFR conditions throughout the period. Winds southwest this
afternoon becoming northwest and breezy tonight and Monday.
Tuesday will be windier with a cold surge from a secondary
front.

No sig wx is expected Wed. Rain is possible again by the end of
the day Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA through early Tuesday morning. Additional SCA conditions may
be warranted thereafter with a low possibility of encountering
Gale force winds from around Tuesday morning through the day
Tuesday.

No marine hazards expected the middle of next week/next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday will be the windiest day of this week and dewpoints
will be on the downward trend, which may cause some renewd fire
wx concerns. However, cool temperatures may offset somewhat the
fire wx threat. The biggest fire threat will be at the higher
elevations where a tongue of very dry air aloft (~5kft) will
likely mix down toward the lower elevations.

Wednesday will be the day with the largest dewpoint depressions
this week, but winds will be on the downward trend as high
pressure will be settling in.

Next Saturday is shaping up to be breezy and dry.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record dry spell continues across the Mid-Atlantic. Below is
a list of the longest stretches of consecutive days with no
measurable precipitation observed. This will end this evening as
rain is expected at all of the climate sites.

Due to anticipated rain associated with a frontal system, this
streak will likely end today.

.SITE..DCA, BWI, IAD, MRB have set records for longest dry days...
.DCA...Current stretch: 38 days (ending 2024-11-09)
       Previous record: 34 days (ending 2007-10-18)
.BWI...Current stretch: 38 days (ending 2024-11-09)
       Previous record: 32 days (ending 1963-10-31)
.IAD...Current stretch: 38 days (ending 2024-11-09)
       Previous record: 32 days (ending 1963-10-31)
.MRB...Current stretch: 33 days (ending 2024-11-09)
       Previous record: 30 days (ending 1988-07-09)

.NAK...Current stretch: 33 days (ending 2024-11-09) - tied for 2nd
       Record: 34 days (ending 2001-11-19)
.HGR...Current stretch: 27 days (ending 2024-11-09) - tied for 6th
       Record: 32 days (ending 1913-11-13)
.CHO...Current stretch: 35 days (ended 2024-11-06) - ranked 3rd
       Record: 43 days (ending 2000-11-08)
 CHO observed 0.03 inches of rain on Nov 07, ending the streak


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ530-531-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ535-536-538.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ535-
     538.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
FIRE WEATHER...LFR
CLIMATE...LFR