Bel Air South, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

503
FXUS61 KLWX 241906
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
206 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate into Monday. A quick moving cold
front will cross the area Monday night into early Tuesday with
brief high pressure returning midweek. An area of low pressure
will track north and east from the Tennessee River Valley and
bring widespread precipitation and colder temperatures toward
the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to dominate into Monday. The
relaxation of the pressure gradient has resulted in a decrease
in winds. Expect the winds to continue to decrease through the
afternoon/evening before becoming light and variable overnight.
Mostly clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to fall into
the low to mid 30s. Sheltered valley locations should fall into
the mid to upper 20s, especially in areas west of the
Alleghenies with a snowpack.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will persist through much of Monday as high
pressure exists off to the east and low pressure approaches from
the west. The low and it`s associated cold front will move
through late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Cloudcover will
increase through the day, but precipitation/rain chances do not
increase from west to east until Monday evening along the
Allegheny Front and later Monday night along the I-95 corridor.
Rainfall amounts will remain fairly light with this system with
most of the area outside the Alleghenies receiving less than a
tenth of inch.

Highs Monday will be above average, reaching into the right
around 60 for most (mid 60s central VA, 50s in mtns).

High pressure briefly builds back in behind the front Tuesday.
Not much of a cold front given the airmass behind the front and
rather zonal H5 pattern. Highs Tuesday are contingent upon how
quickly cloudcover exits associated with the front, however
there is the potential for some downsloping winds/compressional
warming resulting in highs a couple degrees higher than
currently forecast. Currently have 40s in the mountains with
near 60 most other places. Post-frontal winds will turn to the
west and northwest with gusts 20 to 30 mph Tuesday morning into
Tuesday afternoon. Winds will decrease fairly quickly Tuesday
night as high pressure builds overhead. Lows Tuesday night will
fall into the upper 20s and low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be overhead Wednesday morning but quickly
progress eastward in a fast zonal flow aloft. Clouds will increase
through the day with seasonable temperatures in the upper 40s to mid
50s.

Low pressure will advance toward the area from the southern Plains
Wednesday night. It now looks like precipitation will begin
overnight and continue into Thursday morning. With the preceding
airmass being relatively mild and a lack of diurnal cooling, most
areas will just see rain. The mountainous areas to the west will
need to be monitored however since dew points may start out in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. As another shortwave quickly follows, a
second area of low pressure will develop to the south Thursday. If
this moisture stays to the south, many areas will be drying out
Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, there is potential for more rain
Thursday night into Friday. The tracks of these lows will also have
some impact on Thursday`s temperatures (40s vs. 50s). Rainfall
amounts should be beneficial in nature.

Friday is forecast to dry out east of the mountains with a gusty
northwest wind and temperatures trending below normal. Meanwhile,
accumulating upslope snow will commence west of the Allegheny Front.
Confidence remains low on amounts this far out. There is some trend
in recent guidance that the best moisture advection off the lakes
will remain north of the area. Saturday has trended dry with brief
high pressure, but temperatures will run well below normal with some
lingering wind.

A shortwave will approach on Sunday as temperatures remain well
below normal. Most precipitation (snow) should remain focused on the
upslope side of the Appalachians, but there is some potential for
light rain or snow to the east as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at most terminals through Wednesday.

A brief period of sub-VFR conditions remain possible Monday
night into Tuesday as a quick moving cold front crosses the
region. The front will bring light to moderate showers to the
terminals leading to some cig/vsby restrictions at times. The
highest confidence for sub-VFR will be at terminals west of the
corridor (i.e KMRB, KHGR, and KFDK). Winds will turn to the
south Monday at 5 to 15 kts. Winds increase late Monday night
into Tuesday as the front passes. The front quickly exits
Tuesday morning into Tuesday midday allowing conditions to
improve. Post-frontal west to northwest winds will be the
biggest issue to aviation through sunset Tuesday with gusts of
20 to 30 kts expected. These values decrease Tuesday night into
Wednesday as high pressure builds overhead. No significant
weather is expected during this time.

No significant weather is forecast Wednesday with high pressure. The
next low pressure system will arrive Wednesday night with rain and
sub-VFR conditions. Depending on the track of a second area of low
pressure, there is some risk of rain and low ceilings through Friday
morning. Northwest winds may gust 20-30 kt behind the system on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have subsided across the waters and SCAs have been
cancelled. A few gusts to 10-15 kts remain possible over the
next hour or two, but given the relaxing pressure gradient and
influence of high pressure, the trend should continue to be
downward.

Winds turn to the south on Monday as high pressure pushes offshore.
Some southerly channeling may be noted of the middle and open waters
of the Chesapeake Bay ahead of an approaching cold front.
Currently favoring wind gusts around 15 kts over the open
waters, but will continue to monitor trends. The front may
bring a line of gusty showers across the waters late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning resulting in the potential for
SMWs.

Winds increase out of the west/northwest Tuesday morning into
Tuesday afternoon behind the front. SCA conditions are likely with
gusts upwards of 20 to 30 kts through at least sunset. SCAs could
continue into Tuesday night before dropping off Wednesday as high
pressure returns to the waters.

No significant weather is forecast Wednesday with high pressure. The
next low pressure system will arrive Wednesday night with rain and
sub-VFR conditions. Depending on the track of a second area of low
pressure, there is some risk of rain and low ceilings through Friday
morning. Northwest winds may gust 20-30 kt behind the system on
Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
     531-538.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CPB/EST
NEAR TERM...CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/CPB/EST
MARINE...ADS/CPB