Bel Air South, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

829
FXUS61 KLWX 101415
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
1015 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area later today. High pressure
will build across the area Wednesday through Friday with above
normal temperatures expected. Next chance of arrives with a
slow moving front for the weekend ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current surface and satellite analysis shows clear dry advection
from the west this morning, with continued moist flow along a
frontal boundary generally along/east of I-95. Most of the area
remains dry today as a result, as the early morning shower
activity has pushed off towards the east. North to northwest
flow will keep most areas dry today. However, where that front
still hasn`t advanced completely out of the region, there may be
a few showers/storms across southern Maryland later this
afternoon. This should quickly dissipate or exit the area by
8 PM this evening, or perhaps even sooner than that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu with
dry conditions expected. Temperatures turn hotter on Thursday as
southwest winds develop and 925 and 850 mb temps rise to 25C/18C
respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is expected to weaken on Friday to allow for low
pressure to form on the leeside of the Appalachians. This low, along
with a backdoor cold front approaching from the north, will spawn
shower and thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon and could linger
through Friday night and much of the day Saturday. The backdoor
front appears to stall across the heart of our region Saturday,
Saturday night and into most of Sunday. There could be some north
and south oscillation of this front; nonetheless, next weekend looks
active and west for much of our region. There is a hint of an area
of high pressure that could develop over New England and build south
along the East US Coast late Sunday and Sunday night. Should this
happen, this would push a lot of our shower and thunderstorm chances
into the western half of our region late Sunday, Sunday night and
into Monday. Although it doesn`t look like it is going to be a dry
Monday, early next week, it seems that the convection coverage could
be less and hopefully less intense.

High temperatures on Friday appear to be quite warm with many
places hitting or exceeding the 90 degree mark, especially east
of the Blue Ridge. This would be prior to developing convection
Friday afternoon. Lows Friday night should get into the middle
60s. Highs on Saturday through Monday will be cooler due to
cloud cover and multiple rounds of convection. Still,
temperatures will be near seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR cigs are starting to scour out at BWI, but are holding firm
at MTN this morning. Over the next few hours, this will quickly
mix out as dry advection pushes in within N to NW flow. Light
winds will shift to a WNW direction later today after frontal
passage with speeds up to 10 kt.

VFR conditions possible at all terminals Friday morning, before
introducing an MVFR or IFR possibility due to heavy or widespread
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and continuing through
Saturday night. Winds light and variable through the period. Winds
may be more north to northeasterly at locations to the north of the
backdoor front, while south to southeasterly winds expected at
locations to the south of the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Isolated to widely scattered t-storms are expected this
afternoon, mainly south of Cobb Island and Drum Point SMWs may
be required. Storms should exit the waters by 00Z Wed.

Any marine hazards Friday afternoon through Saturday night
would likely be in response to showers and thunderstorms that
develop along and ahead of a cold front/stationary front through the
period. These hazards would be Special Marine Warnings or Marine
Weather Statements at best. Winds generally northerly in direction
to the north of the front. Winds southerly to the south of the front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A few sites remain elevated this morning, but WNW flow should
quickly drop tidal anomalies throughout the day today, with no
coastal flooidng issues anticipated.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/CJL/EST
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/CJL
MARINE...LFR/KLW/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL