York, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

307
FXUS61 KGYX 031530
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1030 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold start to the day despite the calendar having flipped
to meteorological spring. Once again high temperatures are
likely to remain in the 20s across most of the area. The cold is
short lived though as winds will become southerly Tuesday and
highs will climb into the 40s again. This will be ahead of a
large storm system affecting much of the eastern half of the
country. Warm temperatures, rain, and gusty winds are all
expected Wednesday into Thursday. Cooler conditions gradually
return late week and next weekend as conditions remain
unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM Update...Minor changes after loading in the latest
observations. Clear skies are helping us recover nicely after a
very cold start to the morning, but continued northwesterly flow
will cap our high temperatures in the 20s today.

550 AM Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends.

Previous discussion...Primary concern is very cold temps this
morning. There remains a bit of a northwesterly breeze and temps
have fallen into the double digits below zero across the far
northern zones. Pockets of ambient temps or wind chills around
20 below will remain possible thru the morning...and the Cold
Weather Advisory remains in effect.

Otherwise sunshine should allow for a modest rebound after the
cold start. Highs will top out in the 20s...around 10 degrees
warmer than yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Return flow begins tonight...and as usual it will be a race
between radiational cooling and developing southwesterly winds.
I have quickly dropped temps thru about midnight...after which
time readings level off and begin to creep up thru sunrise.

The warm up will be on Tue...with highs making it back into the
40s across large portions of the forecast area. In addition warm
air advection may lead to rain and snow showers late in the
day...especially near the surface boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11 PM update...01z NBM remains in agreement with the rest of
the ensemble suite in the long term with most attention being on
midweek system. Rain, snowmelt, some river rises, gusty winds,
wind shear, and convection still in the conversation along with
the possibility of a change to snow as the system departs.

Previously...

Overview...

High pressure moves out across the western Atlantic on Tuesday.
A strong low pressure center moves into the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, and through the Saint Lawrence Valley on Thursday. A
trough lingers across New England Friday and Saturday, then a
ridge of high pressure begins to builds more eastward by next
Sunday.

Details...

High pressure moves off the Eastern Seaboard on Tuesday,
setting up a broad southerly flow and moderating trend going
into the midweek. Temperatures will be on the rise on Tuesday,
with highs ranging from the mid 40s across southern areas, to
the mid 30s across the north.

An expansive and strengthening area of low pressure moves into
the Great Lakes on Wednesday. WAA associated with the system may
bring a brief period of light snow Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night across northern locations. Accumulations would remain
light, and temperatures would be expected to hold around
freezing through the overnight. As warmer air continues to move
in aloft, scattered light freezing rain showers are possible
after midnight through mid morning on Wednesday across the
interior and northern valleys. Precip is expected to remain
light and spotty through midday on Wednesday.

A more steady shield of precip is expected to arrive during the
afternoon hours on Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to have
warmed above freezing across the forecast area by this time,
leading to mainly rain in all locations. Some scattered pockets
of temps right around freezing may linger into the afternoon
hours, but otherwise the broad synoptic southerly flow is
expected to bring rain to the entire area. A lingering CAD is
likely to be more slow to erode than the NBM is currently
showing, as is frequently observed in these scenarios. For that
reason, GFS temperatures were blended into the forecast to bring
temps down across the mountains and foothills Wednesday through
midday Thursday. Even with the lingering cool conditions,
temperatures are still expected to be in the mid 30s. This still
means that precip falls as rain, but snowmelt would remain more
delayed than what the warmer guidance is suggesting.

The steadiest rain is expected to fall overnight Wednesday
night, with more scattered shower activity on Thursday. Overall
QPF amounts don`t look too impressive at this point, with mainly
0.5-1.0 inches of QPF expected in most spots. Some localized
higher amounts are likely across the higher terrain. Still, this
amounts of rain and melting snow has the potential to lead to
enough of a river rise to cause ice to break up and ice jams to
develop on some rivers. We`ll have to carefully watch QPF as
high res guidance brings the storm into a better focus, with
rainfall currently being the biggest determining factor into
whether or not the ice cover on the rivers will hold.

Much of the day on Thursday is spent in the warm sector of the
system, with showery conditions and warm temperatures. Temps
push into the mid 50s across southern New Hampshire, with a run
at 60 degrees not out of the question if a few more breaks of
sun work through. Elsewhere, highs are expected to mainly warm
into the upper 40s to low 50s, with low 40s reserved for areas
north of the mountains.

The cold front associated with the system moves through late in
the day on Thursday and into Thursday night. Colder air
returns, with lows dropping back into the teens and 20s
Thursday night across the area. Gusty and drier conditions are
expected for Friday as temps range from the low 20s to upper 30s
from north to south.

A broad trough remains across New England through at least
Saturday as the system deepens across the Canadian Maritimes. A
couple weak midlevel shortwaves likely rotate around this system
on Saturday, bringing the chance for some scattered rain and
snow showers at times through the day. A ridge tries to build in
from a high pressure center across the Central US, but the
trough influence may linger through the weekend with continued
chances for scattered rain and snow showers as temperatures
gradually trend cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread VFR conditions expected to prevail thru
Tue. Later in the day Tue some showers will be possible...and
local MVFR conditions may result. The best chances would be
along a HIE to AUG line and points north.

Long Term...VFR conditions prevail on Tuesday, with a gradual
lowering of ceilings Tuesday night to MVFR conditions. IFR to
LIFR conditions are then likely at all terminals Wednesday
through Wednesday night with low ceilings, fog, and periods of
rain likely. Gradually improvement is expected on Thursday with
scattered showers, with southern terminals mostly likely to
return to MVFR and VFR conditions. VFR then returns Thursday
night, with MVFR ceilings more likely at HIE with upslope
conditions. Northwesterly wind gusts to around 30kt are likely
on Friday, with VFR likely at most terminals, and MVFR more
likely at HIE. Similar conditions look to continue into the
weekend, with winds easing by Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas continue to diminish this morning
and I have cancelled the SCA. However breezy conditions and very
cold temps mean that moderate freezing spray remains likely thru
sunrise north of Cape Elizabeth. The Freezing Spray Advisory
remains in effect until that time. Starting tonight into Tue
winds will flip around to southerly and start to increase into
Tue night.

Long Term...A deepening low pressure system tracks west of the
waters Wednesday through Thursday. Southerly gales are possible
with this system from late Wednesday through early Thursday.
Westerly gales are then possible on Friday as the low deepens
across Atlantic Canada. The low then only slowly moves away next
weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Baron/Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Clair/Ekster