Waterville, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

785
FXUS61 KGYX 310846
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
346 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions will prevail today with above normal
temperatures. Low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley
tonight and tracks across New England Wednesday bringing rain
south of the mountains and accumulating snow in the mountains.
There will be period of gusty winds, 35-40 mph, in the wake of
this system Thursday. Gusty winds will continue into Friday with
temperatures dropping below normal over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
Areas of clear skies across interior western Maine into eastern
NH have allowed temperatures to drop into the low 30s resulting
in the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces. An special
weather statement has been issued through 8 AM for areas where
temperatures and lingering moisture have allowed for black ice.

High pressure builds in from the southwest today leading to
partly to mostly sunny skies. There is little in the way of cold
air behind the front that crossed yesterday and temperatures
will rise into the upper 30s across the north and upper 40s
across the south. Clouds will increase across western NH late
this afternoon as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Some radiational cooling is expected across northern and eastern
zones this evening before skies turn mostly cloudy from the
approaching low pressure system. This will allow for lows to
drop into the upper 20s to low 30s in these zones while lows
across southern NH and coastal Maine will be in the mid 30s.

The initial low pressure system will be centered near Lake Erie
around midnight tonight with the leading edge of rain nosing
into southern NH. Strong forcing for ascent from low level
frontogenesis will lift NE across the forecast area through
Wednesday morning with moderate rain overspreading the southern
half of the forecast area by day break. This initial Fgen
forcing will lead to moderate to locally heavy wet snow to
develop in the higher elevations of central NH into the White
Mountains around day break with wet bulb zero heights
fluctuating between 2500 feet and 4000 feet. Hi res models
suggest this initial burst of snow across central NH into the
White Mountains and then the mountains of western Maine could
approach 1-2 inches an hour for a couple of hours Wednesday
morning. Confidence is high that elevations at or above 3000
feet will likely see several inches of snow Wednesday morning
while uncertainty lies in whether these snow fall rates can
overcome marginal temperatures at lower elevations.

Most model solutions are in agreement that a vort max pivoting
over southern New England will generate a secondary low that
deepens in the Gulf of Maine through the day Wednesday. The
surface low center is forecast to track offshore of the SW Maine
coastline before moving slightly inland over Downeast Maine
Wednesday evening while H7 low tracks across northern NH into
the St Lawrence Valley. This low will allow for precipitation to
continue across much of the area into Wednesday afternoon with
rain south of the mountains and snow from the White Mountains
and points northeastward. Rain will transition to showers south
of the mountains Wednesday afternoon while elevation dependent
snow continues across the north. High temperatures on Wednesday
will range from the mid 30s across northern valleys to the mid
40s across the south. The strengthening low pressure system will
also bring gusty northeast winds with peak wind gusts around 35
mph along the coast and 25 mph across the interior. Tides are
not at their astronomical peak but will have to watch the high
tide late Wednesday morning with current tide and surge
forecast of 11.7 feet. This forecast is 0.3 feet below minor
flood stage at Portland.

The low pressure system will slow down Wednesday evening and
will linger over New Brunswick, Canada through Wednesday night.
This will allow for snow to continue in the mountains and colder
air to work in from the northwest. As colder air works into the
system thermal profiles will support snow down to the lower
elevations and into western NH. The current snow forecast calls
for 6-8 inches above 2500 feet with higher amounts across the
higher summits of the White Mountains. Northern areas below 2500
are forecast to receive 2-5 inches while this is an area of
greater uncertainty due to snowfall rates and how quickly
colder air arrives Wednesday evening. South of the mountains
will be all rain with QPF around 0.75 to 1.25 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long Term Update: Only bump to the extended here was to
continue increasing winds for Thursday into Friday. Even lower
range of NBM gust values are well into the 30 to 40 mph range
Thursday, and the area will be well poised to gust above that
given cooler and unstable WNW flow. Lower jet will be the
instigator, slowly pushing north on the heels of the gradually
stacking low. Thursday morning the 50kt jet will be over
southern NH, and by evening towards central ME. Between these,
strongest gusts should occur. Given the mixing, tight pressure
gradient, and cooler air aloft, believe a forecast suggesting
gusts 40 to 45 mph with a period of 50 mph gusts fits well at
this time. Gusts should decrease into the overnight, but could
see gusts above 30 mph continuing through Friday morning.

Pattern Overview: Flow becomes more zonal for the latter part
of the week as the region remains under the influence of an
upper low, but with little in the way of forcing and moisture
the only sensible weather may just be increased cloud cover.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* Temperatures trend colder through the weekend.

Details:

Thursday: By Thursday morning any showers will be isolated to
the mountains, being sustained by upslope flow. Froude numbers
from the NAM and GFS suggest some of these could escape into the
foothills, but with a much drier airmass moving into the area,
the confidence in anything reaching the ground is low. High
pressure will be building quickly across the Eastern US, and
with low pressure slow to exit the Northeast this puts our area
under a tight pressure gradient. Ensembles are already showing
very high confidence in wind gusts of at least 35-40 mph
Thursday afternoon and evening. Trends will have to watched
closely as the Euro ensemble has been pretty consistent with
gusts approaching advisory criteria, but the GFS is a little
less bullish.

Friday-Monday: Winds subside a bit heading into Friday, but
with low pressure taking its time, and maybe even slightly
retrograding, a tight PGF lingers and we could again see wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph during the day Friday. Cooler and
drier air will then be entering on strong northwesterly flow,
continuing through the weekend. Low temperatures on Friday look
to be generally in the teens, with some low 20s holding on along
the coast. Over the weekend low temperatures likely end up in
the low teens south of the mountains and low single digits to
the north. Another potentially wintry system approaches the area
on Monday, but at this time it looks like the cold shot could
be too strong and keep anything significant south of the region.
At this time range there is plenty that could change, so we
will be keeping a close eye on it.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR today. Clouds thicken and lower from SW
to NE after 00Z this evening with rain overspreading much of the
region after 06Z. Low cigs and rain will likely bring periods of
IFR by Wednesday morning. KHIE is the only TAF site that will
see rain mixing with and changing to snow Wednesday afternoon.
IFR is likely through Wednesday evening while some improving
conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon at KMHT, KCON, KPSM
and KPWM. Conditions likely lower to IFR for all TAF sites
Wednesday night.


Long Term...HIE likely keeps some restrictions through
Thursday, but after that VFR will prevail areawide through
Saturday. Wind gusts are expected to be in excess of 20 kts
beginning early Thursday morning and continuing through the day
Friday. Peak wind gusts will be on Thursday afternoon and will
likely be exceeding 34 kts at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SW winds gusting to around 25 kts and seas greater
than 5 feet will continue SCA conditions through today. Winds
and seas drop below SCA thresholds tonight before low pressure
approaches from the SW Wednesday morning. This system will bring
the threat for easterly Gales Wednesday morning. Winds shift out
of the west Wednesday evening with these winds reaching Gale
force by Thursday morning.

Long Term...Gales will likely continue Thursday into Friday.
Wind gusts likely won`t subside below 25 kts until Saturday.
Seas will be building to 6-9 ft, again not falling below 5 ft
until Saturday. Light freezing spray may also become a threat
Saturday night through the weekend as very cold air makes it
offshore.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon for
     ANZ150>154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ151-
     153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Baron/Cornwell