Scarborough, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

888
FXUS61 KGYX 101359
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
959 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure persists through today. A cutoff low then stalls
south of New England on Friday through the weekend, bringing an
extended period of cool and unsettled weather conditions
beginning late tonight. The system then moves away by Monday
with a return to drier and warmer conditions early next week as
high pressure returns. A cold front is then possible during the
late Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:59am Update... No notable changes with this update as the
forecast remains on track. Updated temps a bit to account for
trends so far this morning, and worked in some of the latest
HRRR guidance to account for the seabreeze moving inland through
the rest of the day.

545 AM Update... Textbook radiational cooling conditions are
continuing across the region this morning with the First CT Lake
climate station in NH currently at 1 degree above zero. This is
the coldest low temperature for this date at that site since
1977. Cold temperatures will persist through the remainder of
the early morning before the April sun quickly warms us up
later today.

Previously...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this Thursday
morning shows a ribbon of high altitude clouds streaming from
from northwest to southeast over southern NH. There is
also some patchy clouds towards the Capital Region of ME. These
clouds are associated with a passing weak upper level wave.
Elsewhere, skies are mainly clear and this combined with the
light winds is allowing for strong radiational cooling. Current
readings range from the teens across the north and valleys to
the 20s elsewhere. Additional cooling can be expected through
sunrise, especially where skies remain clear.

Surface high pressure will cross over New England today ahead of
a trof of low pressure that will be traveling over the Ohio
River Valley. Initially, skies will be mainly clear through
this morning but cirrus will gradually increase during the
afternoon and evening. It will otherwise be a dry day with high
temperatures ranging from the 40s to lower 50s from north to
south. Similar to yesterday, afternoon mixing will allow for low
afternoon relative humidity. Light southwesterly winds will
become southerly by the afternoon but most gusts should remain
below 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure will begin to retreat to the northeast of the
region tonight as low pressure develops over the Northeast with
a secondary low near the Carolinas. This will allow for
increasing moisture/clouds over the area. Forcing for ascent
will also be on the increase as a series of h5 vort max cross
the region. This will likely result in rain and snow showers
after midnight, especially over southern NH as well as across
the far north and mountains. QPF will likely be less than a
tenth of an inch through the night though, and therefore snow
amounts will generally be an inch or less. Nevertheless, a few
locally slick spots cannot be ruled out for the morning commute
over the higher terrain of southwestern NH. Low temperatures
will range from the 20s to 30s from north to south.

Friday will feature mostly cloudy skies with a few widely
scattered rain and snow showers through the morning before
mainly dry conditions persist for the afternoon hours. Cool
northeasterly flow will limit high temperatures to the 40s in
most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Evening long term update...Very little change to the going
forecast this evening as most new guidance has shared little
additional insight to this weekend`s forecast.

Overview...

At the same time, low pressure moves up the east coast and
stalls south of New England, bringing an extended period of
unsettled and cool conditions for Friday night through the
weekend. The low then moves away by early next week, with warmer
and drier conditions returning with high pressure. A cold front
is then possible by the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe next
week.

Details...

The next band of precip moves in Friday night into Saturday,
and will be better organized than the first. Even so, it will
continue to weaken as it moves into the area, thwarted by the
high to our northeast.

With this progression, southern and coastal areas are most
likely to see the shower or light rain activity, while northern
areas stand the best chance to remain drier. The greatest chance
for POPs is likely during the day on Saturday, and then only
slowly lower into Saturday night. Lingering showers are most
likely along the coast during the day on Sunday, while northern
and interior locations trend drier. The low finally moves away
by Monday as high pressure moving in from the west brings more
progression to the pattern.

The other factor with this system will be the temperatures. An
extended period of cool northeasterly flow develops by Friday,
and linger through the weekend. Highs only top out in the low to
mid 40s in most areas on Saturday, with lows in the low to mid
30s. Some snow is possible with this system across the interior
and higher terrain, but chances have been dropping as POPs have
been trending downward. The airmass will be cool enough to
support some snow, but sufficient precip rates will be required
to achieve it. At this point the best chance looks confined to
the higher terrain, while heavier precip rates that don`t look
likely at this point will be required elsewhere.

The system moves away by Monday, with increasing sunshine and
warming temperatures as high pressure moves in from the west. A
return to the upper 50s and 60s looks likely for Monday and
Tuesday, and then a cold front is possible by later Tuesday and
into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions prevail today through 00Z this
evening. Some restrictions are then possible at KLEB, KHIE,
KCON, and KPSM after 04Z Friday due to lowering ceilings and
-RASN. Conditions then improve later Friday back to VFR. Light
 southwesterly winds this morning will become southerly by this
 afternoon at 10-15 kts. Light easterly flow is then expected
 tonight before becoming southeasterly on Friday. No LLWS is
 currently anticipated.

Long Term...MVFR to IFR conditions likely arrive
from south to north Friday night, with rain likely south, and
rain and snow possible across northern terminals. IFR conditions
likely linger through Saturday, with gradually more breaks of
MVFR ceilings from Saturday night through Sunday, especially
across the northern terminals. Conditions likely gradually
return to VFR from west to east Sunday through Sunday night.
Mainly VFR is then expected for Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria through
at least Friday as high pressure moves across the waters.

Long Term...High pressure settles across the Canadian Maritimes
Friday night, and persists through the weekend. At the same
time, low pressure stalls south of New England, possibly
bringing an extended period of SCA conditions in northeasterly
flow from late Friday night through Sunday. The low then moves
east by early next week as high pressure builds in from the
west.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Clair/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Clair/Ekster