Old Town, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

026
FXUS61 KCAR 231848
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
148 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach tonight from the west and then redevelop
off the coast on Wednesday with an inverted trough extending
northwest onto the Mid-Maine coast. High pressure will return
briefly Wednesday night. A cold front will cross the area
Thursday followed by high pressure Friday into Saturday. High
pressure exits Sunday and a strong low approaches Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message 1...
Snowfall this evening to Wednesday morning, with 3-8 inches of
snow over west/southwest portions of the area and lesser amounts
further east toward the New Brunswick border.

Key Message 1...
Clouds will continue to increase/thicken from west to east this
evening as snow develops as well. This system will feature a
vigorous upper low diving SE out of Quebec, with a low-level
inverted trough oriented SE/NW over western Maine stretching
into NW Gulf of Maine. These inverted troughs, also known as
Norluns, are notoriously difficult because they are capable of
producing locally heavy snowfall, but with widely varying
amounts over short distances. Also, models typically don`t latch
on to the location of the heaviest snow until very close in.
This event matches all these descriptions. The vast majority of
solutions now keep the heaviest axis of snow west of Penobscot
Bay and in Gray`s forecast area, so have just gone with
advisories for us with relatively lighter accumulations for us
than areas further west. Still, this will be an impactful system
thanks to the 3-8 inches of snow over southwest portions of the
area. The snow will be relatively low density/fluffy in nature,
and with E/NE winds 15-25 mph especially near the coast, there
could be some blowing snow especially for coastal Hancock. Added
patchy blowing snow to the forecast, but there`s a chance it
could be more than patchy, and we will need to monitor. Light
snow will probably make it to the New Brunswick border later
tonight, but totals fall off pretty good to just about 1-2
inches along the NB border, perhaps a bit less over far NE
Aroostook. For timing, onset is early-mid evening over western
portions of the area from Greenville to Bangor to Bar Harbor,
and after midnight toward the NB border. Snow ends from north to
south by mid-morning Wednesday over NE Maine, and by midday for
areas further southwest like Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor. While
advisories are in effect, there is about a 30-40 percent
probability of warning criteria (6 inches) for coastal Hancock
County and extreme SW Penobscot west of Bangor, and about a 30
percent chance of warning criteria (8 inches) for central
Piscataquis including Greenville. This is something we will need
to keep an eye on. Conditions improve dramatically toward
Wednesday afternoon, with partial clearing and subsiding winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...
1) Gusty northwest winds in combination with cold air coming
down from Canada will result in wind chills approaching -20F
north Thursday night

Key Message 1...
On Thursday, weak low pressure is expected to pass just to our
north and then redevelop over the Bay of Fundy which will bring
a cold front through our area during the day. Only light, fluffy
snowfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected with the highest totals
in eastern areas and the Downeast coast. On Thursday night, a
strong pressure gradient will set up between the departing low
and a high building in from the west. Blustery NW flow will
bring cold, arctic air down from Canada resulting in lows in
the single digits. Winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph
will result in dangerous wind chills between -10 and -20
degrees with the coldest conditions in the north. Cannot rule
out the possible need for a cold weather advisory Thursday
night, especially in the north. As the high builds in on Friday,
winds will be on a decreasing trend but with cold air persisting
wind chills are likely to still reach the negative single
digits over the north and near zero further south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages
1) Cold Friday night - Saturday night
2) Potential significant winter storm late weekend into early
next week

Key Message 1...
High pressure will be overhead Friday night keeping the cold air
in place. The lack of a strong pressure gradient should keep
winds light and thus are not concerned about winds chills but
temperatures are still expected to dip into the negative single
digits over the north and remain in the positive single digits
further south. Will have to watch sky cover trends carefully as
if clouds remain clear of the area this may allow for some
significant radiational cooling. Currently thinking the best
chance for strong radiational cooling will be Saturday night as
low pressure will be passing to the south Friday night which may
result in high clouds overhead.

Key Message 2...
A significant winter storm is possible late this weekend into
early next week. Models are in good agreement over the existence
of a system during this timeframe that will move in from over
the Great Lakes region and then possibly redevelop off the New
England coast. Most solutions show a snow event for us and thus
keeping the forecast as all snow except for the immediate
coast. However, there is still disagreement over precip types
depending on when, where, and how readily low redevelopment
occurs. Additionally, models are still uncertain about timing
with some solutions bringing precipitation in Sunday afternoon
with others holding off until later Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Low VFR cigs this afternoon BHB/BGR, with easily VFR
and mostly clear skies further NE. For tonight, cigs lower and
snow develops from SW to NE. The worst conditions tonight will
be GNR/BGR/BHB, with somewhat better conditions further NE
toward Aroostook. For BHB/BGR, expect MVFR developing by 3z,
with possibly IFR late in the night and early Wednesday morning,
with the highest likelihood at BHB. E/NE winds will increase at
BHB/BGR and become 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Further NE
toward HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE, MVFR cigs and vsby in light snow will
likely develop after roughly 6z. Winds will be lighter at
Aroostook terminals at around 5 kts. All areas improve during
the day Wednesday, with Aroostook terminals improving to VFR
first by 14z, and Downeast terminals like BHB/BGR improving to
VFR roughly 18z. Winds ease midday into the afternoon for
BHB/BGR.


SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR though Downeast terminals
may see MVFR early. Northern terminals diminishing toward MVFR late
in light -shsn. Light S/SW wind late.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR in light snow showers all terminals.
Greatest chance for IFR at northern terminals. Light SW
becoming NW 10-15kts in the afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR. NW 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts.

Friday night-Saturday night...VFR. NNW 5kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Gales expected tonight with a gale warning in effect. Probability
of the easterly gales is near 100 percent for western waters
around and south of Bar Harbor, but probably drops to around 50
percent east/southeast of Jonesport. Winds ease in the afternoon
and shift from east to north. Seas top out around 9 feet late
tonight.


SHORT TERM:
Seas decreasing below SCA criteria Wednesday night with winds
below criteria. Winds increase to gales by Thursday evening on
all waters. Winds decrease below gales Friday and below SCA
criteria Friday night. Winds and seas below SCA criteria
Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Wednesday for MEZ010-015-016-031-029.
MARINE...Gale Watch from midnight EST tonight through Wednesday
afternoon for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...TF
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...TF/SM
Marine...TF/SM