Old Town, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

668
FXUS61 KCAR 221149 CCA
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
649 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain south of the area today then build across
the region on Tuesday. Low pressure will slide south of the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will return Wednesday
night into Thursday. Low pressure will track south of the area
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645AM Update: Updated marine hazards to downgrade the Gale Warning
to a Small Craft Advisory.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure to the southwest combined with lower pressure over
the Maritimes will maintain a cold gusty northwesterly wind today
under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs only from the mid teens
north to the mid 20s near the coast combined with winds gusting
over 25 mph will result in wind chills from near zero north to
around 10 Downeast.

Tonight will be mostly clear with diminishing winds as high pressure
nudges in from the west. Lows will range from near zero north to
around 10 Downeast.

High pressure will remain across the north on Tuesday. The day will
begin mostly sunny, then clouds will increase from southwest to
northeast ahead of a narrow and shallow low pressure system sliding
east from the Midwest. By the end of the day Tuesday the sky will be
partly to mostly cloudy north and mostly cloudy south. A bit of
light snow may begin to push into southwestern areas late in the
day. Tuesday will remain very cold with highs from the low mid teens
north to around 30 near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
1) Potential for moderate snow accumulation Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning near Penobscot Bay area

Key Message 1...

Upr level jet streak currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest
will move thru the srn Canadian Prairie Provinces with sfc low
developing this afternoon to the lee of the Rockies. This low
forecast to move along the Ontario/Quebec border, south of James
Bay, on Tuesday evening. Trough of low pressure will extend from
parent low over Canada down thru New England to developing secondary
sfc low south of Cape Cod by 00z Wednesday.

This coastal low will intensify with parent low weakening Tuesday
night. At the same time high pressure will be located to our north
and east, keeping steady precip confined to our swrn zones. This
looks to be a classic Norlun event setting up with an inverted
instability trough producing a narrow convergence band of locally
heavy snow. At this time, guidance has been fairly consistent over
the past 3 to 4 model runs of setting the trof up over the mid-coast
region as opposed to our Downeast coast. Confidence remains too low
and amounts too uncertain to go with a Winter Storm Watch for
southern Penobscot and coastal Hancock counties at this time.
Confidence looks to be there for Winter Weather Advisories for swrn
zones but will let the next shift get a better look at things before
committing one way or the other.

Holiday travelers around the Penobscot Bay area should be prepared
for impactful wintry weather late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning!

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...
1) Snow showers across the north Christmas Day
2) Active weather pattern with possible storm early in the weekend and
again late in the weekend

Key Message 1...
Upr trof will be exiting to our east Wednesday night with the next H5
trof bringing another s/wv acrs the north on Christmas Day. This will
bring snow showers with possibly an inch of accumulation by afternoon.
Have bumped pops to high chance on Christmas Day for central and
northern areas.

Key Message 2...
Latest deterministic guidance has high pressure over CWA on Friday, as
does most of the ensemble guidance. Confidence is increasing that the
day after Christmas will be decent for post-holiday travel though it will
be cold, with highs in the teens over the north and low-mid 20s south.

There looks to be a system moving out of the northern/central Plains
toward the east coast. How this system will impact our CWA will ultimately
be determined by sfc hipres to our north. 00z GFS/EC keeps it south of
our region, while 00z CMC and EC AI brings precip into our wrn zones.
Given uncertainty have kept chc snow in early in the weekend.

Yet another system being advertised for late in the weekend into early
next week with upr low digging into the northeast and possibly closing
off late in the period. This may bring mixed precip back into the mix
but this is still a long way off.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with gusty
northwest winds today followed by diminishing winds tonight. VFR
conditions are expected Tuesday with a light N wind during the
morning becoming light E during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in snow all terminals. Possible
LIFR Downeast terminals in heavy snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. E 5-10kts becoming N 5-10kts in the afternoon.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR/MVFR Downeast, MVFR/IFR Aroostook
terminals in snow showers. NW 5kts becoming SW Thursday morning.
WNW 5-10kts Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR. N 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
An SCA for the intracoastal waters has been extended through early
this afternoon and will continue for the rest of the coastal
waters through this evening. Winds will diminish this evening and
be below SCA across the waters tonight into Tuesday. Seas up to 6
ft continue this morning, subsiding to 4 ft this evening then 2
ft late tonight into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds increase to small craft levels Tuesday
evening, remaining elevated on Wednesday. Cannot rule out gale
force gusts over the outer waters but this will depend on track
of surface low. Seas remain aoa 5ft over the outer waters
through Wednesday evening. Conditions during the latter half of
the period will remain near marginal SCA levels Thursday night
into Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB/MWS
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...MB/21
Marine...MB/21