Old Orchard, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

878
FXUS61 KGYX 140245
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1045 PM EDT Sun Apr 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves east tonight with a return to drier and
warmer conditions tomorrow as high pressure returns. A cold
front approaches from the west Tuesday, with an upper low
influencing conditions into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1045 PM Update...Minor update to capture the latest observed
trends. Skies have started to clear across western NH with
lingering showers across eastern zones expected to diminish over
the next hour or two.

650 PM Update...Have performed a refresh of PoPs, T/Tds, and sky
cover based on latest observations and hi res guidance which did
not result in any significant changes in the going forecast
through tonight. Forcing for ascent is waning over the area
with a north to south axis of light rain aligned along the
NH/ME border towards central Maine and snow occuring in the
mountains. This axis of precipitation will diminish over the
next couple of hours with some clearing skies over NH.

Previously...

Center of low pressure can be seen swirling into the Gulf of
Maine this afternoon. Regional radar in New England is picking
up on widespread rain along the coast, pushing across the
interior of Maine. Through the morning and afternoon, forcing
was enough given thermal profiles to force some ice pellets and
snow to mix in across the interior. With surface temps warming,
any frozen precip should be regulated to the higher terrain for
remainder of the evening.

The continuous shield of precip will tend to scatter out as
forcing wanes and the low center pulls northeast. Showers exit
west to east around midnight. While clouds will thin to the
west, NW winds should be enough to prevent decoupling. As a
result, temps largely remain in the mid to upper 30s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Some clouds remain across Maine Monday morning, but thinning is
expected through the morning. Strong April sun and warmer west
winds rapidly warm temps in the morning across NH and west ME.
It will be a good drying day with large dewpoint depressions and
a breeze. Highs rise into the mid 60s across southern NH, with
upper 50s making it to the Kennebec Valley. If background winds
aren`t too strong, a weak seabreeze may attempt to push onshore
along the York and NH seacoast.

High clouds may begin to infiltrate into the evening ahead of
the next disturbance. Low pressure moving into Quebec will pass
an occluded front across central and northern New England
overnight. This should develop some scattered showers overnight
into the early morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1045 PM Update...No major changes in the extended with the
latest NBM guidance. An upper low will be slowly exiting into
the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday with mainly upslope rain and
mountain snow showers into Thursday morning.

Previously...

Upper low will be centered just south of James Bay to start Tuesday
morning with associated cold front still west of the region. Out
ahead of the front, expecting light rain showers and/or drizzle to
be around Tuesday morning, but coverage of showers will increase
through the afternoon as the cold front begins to push through the
area and synoptic scale lift increases. There has been more of a
trend in the models in showing the 500mb wave responsible in sending
the cold front through taking on a negative tilt, creating a region
of strong diffluence and a secondary low developing over western ME.
There has resulted in an upward trend in QPF and PoPs, especially
over in western ME. Still could see a couple of storms with small
hail out of this system as well, mainly across NH, but heavy
downpours are possible across most of the region. Rain showers will
diminish from west to east during the afternoon and evening, and
it`s possible northern areas may see a brief period of snow mix in
Tuesday evening. Otherwise, there will be a continued chance of rain
and snow showers in the mountains through Tuesday night.


The low pressure system lifts into the Canadian Maritimes on
Wednesday and more or less stays put there until late week. This
puts the area under broad cyclonic flow with breezy conditions
thanks to good mixing and steep low-level lapse rates. Waves
rotating around the upper low and low-level upslope flow will lead
to rounds of rain or snow showers in the mountains while areas
downwind have a lower chance...but still around 20-30% on Wednesday
and around 20% on Thursday as Froude numbers do come up somewhat in
the afternoon. Temperatures will be mostly in the mid 40s to lower
50s for highs, except a bit cooler in the mountains.

The upper low slowly moves east on Friday as high pressure begins to
build into New England with temperatures also trending upward and
winds not as breezy. The next low pressure will quickly follow
though, but it does look the daytime hours stay dry. High
temperatures should be back into the 50s for most with some low 60s
across southern NH.

Although the details of the track and timing of the next low
pressure system are a still a bit in question, there is good
agreement among the ensembles of the next chance at widespread
precipitation over the weekend. The ECWMF continues to be the
more progressive with early start and end times while the GFS is
in the slower camp, but there is more agreement for the higher
precip chances Friday night into Saturday with decreasing PoPs
going into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread IFR has struggled to develop today,
with MVFR ceilings observed for the most part. This should
continue into the evening hours before improving to VFR by
Monday morning. RA this afternoon will trend to SHRA, exiting
east before midnight.

Long Term...An approaching front brings MVFR to IFR ceilings
and mostly rain showers on Tuesday with improvement from west to
east through the afternoon and evening. Mostly VFR Wednesday
through Friday with a low chance of rain showers downwind of the
mountains on Wednesday. The exception will be at HIE, where the
potential for MVFR ceilings and rain or snow showers may
continue through at least Thursday, and possibly into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue tonight through Monday
morning as low pressure crosses the Gulf of Maine. North winds
will continue to gust up to 30 kt, with just a few gusts above
25kt for the bays. Winds flip onshore Monday evening after the
chance for a weak seabreeze Mon afternoon.

Long Term...Flow becomes southerly Tuesday as a cold front
approaches the waters. The front crosses later in the day, and
then W to SW winds likely increase to SCA levels Tuesday night
as low pressure lifts into the Canadian Maritimes. SCA
conditions will probably continue through Wednesday and Thursday
as the low stay across the Maritimes, but high pressure may
provide a period of improvement Friday and maybe into Saturday,
depending on how the speed and track of the next front and low
pressure that approach the region sometime next weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Combs/Schroeter