Old Orchard, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

997
FXUS61 KGYX 220604 RRA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...Resent.
National Weather Service Gray ME
104 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A white Christmas is looking more likely for much of the area
as a system moving through Tuesday into Wednesday brings the
potential for accumulating snowfall, likely impacting some of
the late holiday travelers. Somewhat quieter and seasonable
weather then returns for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Another system is then possible towards the end of this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A cold day remains on tap for today but it will be breezy which
will aid in producing wind chill values in the teens by early
afternoon despite ample sunshine. No high impact weather
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure approaches tonight, flattening the upper ridge as
it comes. In the late night hours we will see at least some low
light snow chances return to New Hampshire before increasing and
spreading east on Tuesday. There are still details that need to
be worked out with this system. Several members of the ensemble
suite produce a relatively straight forward ribbon of snow that
traverses the forecast area. Other ensemble and deterministic
members pop weak low pressure just off the coast which should
enhance snowfall rates with fairly high ratios somewhere on the
coastal plain and potentially into central ME. The ECMWF has
been a supporter of this idea. This would allow for a few-zone
area of enhanced snowfall totals. Will continue to monitor this
potential. The main takeaway though is that snow will gradually
overspread the area from southwest to northeast on Tuesday
before arriving towards the Mid-Coast by early evening with
deteriorating travel conditions likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

-Accumulating snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will
 likely bring holiday travel impacts.

-Dry and cold weather Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before
 additional snow chances arrive late week.

Discussion:

Surface low pressure will cross from northwest to southeast on
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, while undergoing some
redevelopment once it moves over the western Gulf of ME. This
redevelopment combined with a potential inverted trof will
likely allow for steady period of light to moderate snowfall
across the coastal plain of western ME with light snowfall
elsewhere. Latest deterministic and ensemble based guidance
continues to favor areas from roughly Portland and points
eastward in having the highest probabilities of QPF of at least
0.50", which combined with SLRs of 12-15:1 would approach local
warning level thresholds. Given the latest forecast and the fact
that this will occur 2 days before the Christmas Holiday, I
went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for Cumberland
County and points east to Waldo County in southwestern ME.
Advisory level snowfall is likely for much of western ME south
of the mountains along with portions of central NH and possibly
extending down towards the Sea Coast of NH but will wait on
issuing headlines for these regions for now. Holiday travel
impacts are likely Tuesday evening into part of Wednesday.

Snow will end by Wednesday afternoon as low pressure drifts well
offshore. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be into the teens
with high temperatures on Wednesday into the 30s. Canadian high
pressure will then build over New England Wednesday night into
Christmas Day, resulting in cold temperatures but dry weather.
There is increasing confidence for another potentially impactful
winter storm Friday night into Saturday with temperature
profiles currently supporting primarily a snow event once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through tonight,
with the possible exception being at KHIE due to the potential
for some MVFR ceilings and scattered snow showers. Snow chances
and MVFR ceilings will then be on the increase Tuesday as the
next clipper approaches. West winds will generally prevail in 10
to 15 kt range, gusting to 25 kts.

Long Term... SN will bring IFR-LIFR restrictions Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning before conditions gradually improve later
Wednesday. Mainly VFR is then expected Wednesday night through
Thursday with W-NW flow. Another system may bring additional SN
and flight restrictions towards late Fri into Sat, although
significant uncertainty remains at this time range.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...West to northwest gales are expected through early
this morning outside of the bays before slowly diminishing.
Seas of 6 to 10 ft are expected outside of the bays with 1 to 4
ft waves in the bays.

Long Term...Northerly gales are possible on Wed as low pressure
departs to the east. Seas of 4-7 ft are likely outside of the
bays with 1-4 ft in the bays themselves. Another period of
increased winds and seas are then possible late week as another
system arrives.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon for MEZ019>022-024>028.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Tubbs