Old Orchard, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

843
FXUS61 KGYX 231824
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
124 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
This evening begins the busy holiday period. From tonight
through Sunday no less than three weather makers are
anticipated. Widespread snow will break out this evening, and at
least within a narrow band somewhere on the Maine Midcoast
someone may be dashing through quite a bit of snow. While most
people will see 2 to 4 inches, a concentrated area of up to a
foot of snow is possible between Portland and Rockland. A strong
cold front will arrive Christmas Day, and alongside snow showers
will come plunging temperatures. By Friday highs will struggle
to reach 20 degrees for even southern areas. Wind chills will
start out below zero and remain in the single digits for much
of day. While temperatures will gradually warm up into Sunday,
it will also come with another chance for wintry precipitation.
Snow or snow to rain or an icy mix is possible to disrupt
returns from holiday travel.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Christmas comes early for snow lovers as a Norlun trough
impacts Maine and New Hampshire tonight. Snow continues to
spread from west to east during the late afternoon and evening
hours. By late this evening and through the overnight hours, an
inverted trough is expected to become stationary across the
MidCoast, likely reaching westward into Casco Bay. This serves
as a focus for heavy snowfall overnight, with high ratios and
ideal dendritic growth conditions supporting higher snow
totals.

With this update, confidence has increased in much of the
MidCoast experiencing the heavy snowfall, which likely reaches
into the western Maine mountains and into the eastern Whites.
Winter storms warnings have been expanded another tier of zones
inland, where high ratios should help support higher totals.

Closer to the coast, high ratio and fluffy snow is still
expected, but surface temperatures around freezing likely cause
the snow to become a bit stickier and settle more once it`s on
the ground. In all these areas, 6-12 inches of snow is expected.
Locally higher amounts are possible, and would most likely
occur just back from the coast where surface temps in the 20s
limit settling, and in areas of increased elevations, even if
only by a few hundred feet. The heaviest snowfall rates are
expected through the overnight hours, with 1-3 in/hr at times in
the heavier snow bands. Reduced visibility and difficult travel
conditions are expected overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Snow continues into the morning hours through much of Maine.
Heavy snowfall rates of 1-3 in/hr continue into the early
morning commute along the coast, and then ease through the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Winds increase toward the end
of the snowfall event, with gusts of 20-30 mph likely to cause
some blowing and drifting snow into the afternoon hours
tomorrow. Temperatures also fall on the backside of the system,
with temps spending most of the day in the 20s.

Temperatures fall into the teens across most of the region for
Christmas Eve. Then, clouds begin to move in overnight as the
next shortwave moves in on northwesterly flow. Snow showers
spread southeastward after midnight, likely reaching into
central locations by daybreak on Christmas morning. Snowfall
amounts from this would remain light, but a coating to an inch
of snow is possible by daybreak across the mountains and
foothills.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview: The extended will feature a fairly active pattern with
frequent chances for precip. There is also no strong signal for
above normal temps...and I would lean near to below normal for
this forecast period.

Key Messages:

-Strong cold front crosses the area Thu. Well below normal temps
 expected Fri/Sat. Wind gusts Thu evening/night may approach 40
 mph.

-Signal continues for widespread wintry precip Sun. At the end
 of the holiday weekend that could bring significant travel
 impacts if it were to occur.

Forecast Details: Follow up trof crosses the region Thu. During
the first half of the day WAA ahead of the front will support at
least weak lift in a saturated snow growth zone. There may be
some dry surface air to overcome...especially across southern
parts of the forecast area...but I felt that it warranted at
least slight chance PoP. So I have bumped up the NBM guidance to
cover at least that small threat. In the wake of the front Thu
evening/overnight mixing depths increase quickly in CAA. There
is a core of 35 to 45 kt winds not far off the deck and it is
possible that we are able to tap into this despite the time of
day. NBM gusts were rather low given the forecast soundings...so
I blended in some 90th percentile to both winds and gusts thru
Fri morning.

The coldest weather in the extended looks to be both Fri and
Sat. ECMWF EFI indicates some anomalous but not extreme cold.
Given the NBM generally had highs in the teens and 20s both days
I did not see the need to adjust that...as those forecasts are
well below normal for the time of year.

The next storm system arrives Sun...but at this time carries
pretty low confidence in details. Precip looks likely...but
since that arrives with a warm front/occlusion the ptype could
range quite a bit. High pressure is forecast to be well placed
to hold the cold air over the area...but if the WAA aloft is too
strong that may introduce mixed precip. For the time being the
consensus forecast is for mostly snow...with a brief mix with
rain near the end of precip across southern and western zones.
Whether a wintry mix or snow...the key message is that travel
may be hazardous towards the end of a holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Conditions deteriorate to IFR and LIFR with
increasing snow intensity this evening. Gradual improvement
back to VFR is expected through early Wednesday afternoon at
most terminals, with improvement back to MVFR likely at LEB and
HIE tomorrow morning. Conditions persist into tomorrow night,
and then more MVFR conditions with light snow are likely late
tomorrow night.


Long Term...A cold front will cross the region Thu and with it
some snow showers are possible. Areas of IFR or lower conditions
are most likely in the higher terrain including HIE...but all
terminals could see a snow shower thru the day. Surface winds
will become gusty Thu evening into the overnight. Right now the
forecast is for northwest gusts of 25 to 30 kt...but it is
possible that subsequent forecasts will increase those gusts.
VFR conditions prevail thru most of the weekend until Sun. The
next system arrives with precip overspreading the area southwest
to northeast. This is more likely to bring widespread IFR or
lower conditions from CIGs alone...but snow is also possible for
most areas and will carry lower VIS as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Northerly gales develop across the outer waters
Wednesday morning as low pressure departs the Gulf of Maine, and
ease to SCA conditions in the afternoon. SCA conditions are
expected across the bays late tonight through tomorrow
afternoon. SCA conditions persist through tomorrow night in
residual seas.


Long Term...A strong cold front will cross the waters Thu and
northwest winds will increase...especially overnight. Gale force
wind gusts are possible for all waters into Fri morning. High
pressure will allow winds and seas to diminish over the
weekend...with the next storm arriving Sun. First southwest
winds will likely gust to SCA thresholds...followed by offshore
gusts potentially to gale force outside the bays on Mon.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     MEZ007>009-023.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ012>014-
     018>022-024>028-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     NHZ001>003-005-007>010.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for NHZ004-006.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Clair/Legro
MARINE...Clair/Legro