Hermon, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

220
FXUS61 KCAR 221113
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
613 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today and tonight and
crest over the area Monday. Low pressure will approach Monday
night and track along the coast early Tuesday. High pressure
will return Wednesday into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:10 AM Update...Patchy low clouds and flurries have persisted
over the north including the lee side convergent line of snow
showers through Southeastern Aroostook County. Cold air flowing
over the open St. Lawrence Seaway may be contributing to the
persisting low/mid level moisture. Held isolated/scattered snow
showers for a while this morning. Expect flurry activity to
diminish later today as high pressure builds in.

Previous discussion...
Weak upper troughiness will be over us early this morning
allowing for some clouds, and some spotty snow showers over east
central areas, early this morning. Otherwise, high pressure
will be building in from the west today. The gradient ahead of
this high will continue to produce a brisk and cold
northwesterly breeze today with clouds giving way to a mostly
sunny afternoon.

High pressure will continue to build in tonight allowing the
gradient to weaken. Winds will decrease and a few of the colder
valleys may become calm late tonight in the cold stable air.
Lows will be below zero across most inland locations and some of
the colder northern valleys may drop to 10 below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday will dawn clear and cold with the apex of the ridge just
moving overhead. However, upper level clouds will rapidly move
in from the west as an upper level shortwave approaches.
High temperatures on Monday will be warmer than Sunday, with the
combination of increased cloud cover and weak return flow on the
backside of the high. Overall, temps will still be cooler than
normal, reaching the low 20s in the south and mid teens in the
north.

Monday night the weak low will move eastward, bringing some
overrunning, mainly to the southern portion of the state. This
will initiate some light snow overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. With a cold air column, SLRs will be fairly high, so
even though QPF barely reaches 0.25", snow totals will generally
be 1 to 3" across the region. Downeast Maine may need a winter
weather advisory, with the potential for 4 to 6". This will
depend on how far north the low track moves. If the low moves
further south as models have been showing for the past couple of
days, the heaviest precip will be confined to the offshore
regions. However, current trend indicates a track across
southern Maine, so the potential for a winter weather advisory
will need to be watched.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The low will move offshore quickly, and by Christmas Eve night,
the snow will end across the region. This will start a very
quiet period weather-wise through the weekend. High pressure
will build in through the weekend, with no additional
precipitation expected through Monday. Friday could see some
stronger N winds as a backdoor system approaches from the
Canadian maritimes and tightens the gradient over the state.
Location of these winds will highly depend on the positioning of
the high and confidence is moderate at best in an increase in
winds for Friday. Regardless, this does not look like an
impactful wind event. Temperatures during this period will
gradually rise, reaching seasonal norms by the end of the week
and highs possibly rising above freezing by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A few northern spots may briefly be MVFR early this
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today and
tonight. Gusty NW wind today, diminishing overnight tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Monday...VFR. Light NW to W wind becoming S.

Monday night...VFR dropping to MVFR and possibly IFR south with
-SN. S wind becoming E around 10 kts.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...MVFR/IFR south and MVFR north with -SN
becoming VFR across the area by late Tuesday night. Light N
wind.

Wednesday through Friday...VFR. Light and variable winds,
becoming N 10 kts in the east on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue today for NW winds gusting up to
30 kt. Winds will diminish below SCA this evening. Seas will
run up to 5 ft today, dropping to 3 to 4 ft tonight. Some light
freezing spray is expected today.

SHORT TERM:
Possible small craft winds on the outer waters Tues night/Weds
morning. Otherwise quiet for the majority of the forecast
period. Seas 3 to 5 feet for the duration.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Bloomer/LF
Marine...Bloomer/LF