Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

696
FXUS61 KCAR 121343
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
943 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will
cross the region Friday. Low pressure will track south of the
region Saturday. A weak trough of low pressure will cross on
Sunday, followed by high pressure on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:43AM UPDATE...Minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast.
Mesoanalysis shows increasing surface based instability as low
level lapse rates improve from the AM inversion being mixed out.
Quickly with some daytime heating we are seeing convection get
underway with low convective temperatures today. So far just
isolated showers across the Central Highlands into Northern
Maine. Somewhat open shortwave energy is pivoting SE from Quebec
and the primary kicker for convection. As daytime heating
increases expecting scattered showers and some isolated
thunderstorms to develop. Much of this activity will be confined
from the Route 9 corridor northward with the best chance of a
shower in Northern Maine. Will continue to monitor trends on
convection over the next few hours.

previous forecast
A cold front will cross the region this morning. An upper level
disturbance approaching from Quebec province will then cross the
region this afternoon. Expect mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies
across the region today. An isolated thunderstorm is possible,
mainly from the Katahdin region north. A tightening surface pressure
gradient and a rather deep mixed layer will result in a gusty
West to Northwest wind across the region today, with some gusts
up to 35 mph possible at times. High temperatures this
afternoon will range from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees
across the north and mid to upper 70s for the Bangor region and
downeast areas. Northwest flow continues tonight as high
pressure to our northwest builds toward the region. Expect
partly cloudy skies tonight. Lows will range from the upper 30s
to lower 40s across the north and mid 40s to around 50 for the
Bangor region and Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...
Crisp, pleasant day Friday. Highs ranging from the low 60s north
to upper 60s Downeast. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some
fair weather cumulus. Dry air with dewpoints in the 30s. NW
breeze 10-15 mph.

Friday Night and Saturday...
Two concerns for this period: how far north rain makes it into
the area (if at all), and how cool it gets in the north Friday
night. Skies are looking mostly clear at least for far northern
Maine. With very light winds and a cool airmass already in
place, decent radiational cooling could occur. Went on the cool
side of guidance in the north, with lows in the mid 30s to low
40s in the north. Can`t rule out localized light frost in some
of the coolest spots.

Regarding the rain, models/ensembles have generally trended
south/drier on a system moving from west to east through the
region, and have trended forecast in this direction as well.
Going for just a 30-40 percent chance of light rain from Bangor
south to the coast, with the best chances being from about 6am
to noon Saturday. There`s still some model disagreement though,
with some solutions keeping rain easily south of the area, and
on the other extreme, a few bringing rain as far north as central
portions of the forecast area. Temperatures Saturday depend on
how far north the clouds and potential rain make it, but
generally looking for highs in the 60s.

Saturday Night...
Probably dry and cool, but not quite as cool as Friday night.
Lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Westerly, low amplitude flow over the region from Sunday to
midweek. For Sunday, can`t totally rule out a few showers, but
overall looking like a decent day with partly to mostly cloudy
skies in and highs in the 60s. Then looking for a gradual
warming trend with temperatures probably above normal by
midweek, with dewpoints and thunderstorm chances gradually on
the rise as well toward midweek. Difficult to time individual
systems this far out, but pretty high confidence in the warmer,
muggier pattern mid to late in the week with better
shower/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR is expected at all the terminals today. Scattered
showers are expected. An afternoon thunderstorm could affect
the northern terminals this afternoon. But confidence in timing
and placement is low, thus no mention in the TAF package. VFR
all terminals tonight. Wind becoming W to NW with gusts up to
35 kt possible this afternoon. NW wind 10 to 15 kt tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR with NW wind 10 kts.

Friday Night...Mainly VFR with light wind. Can`t totally rule
out patchy valley fog late in the night.

Saturday: VFR for northern terminals. MVFR/IFR possible (around
a 30 percent chance) at BGR and BHB with rain, with VFR more
likely (70 percent chance). Light south winds.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Generally VFR with light and
variable winds.

Monday: VFR. S-SW winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below SCA levels through
tonight, although there could be a few gusts to 25 kt across the
outer waters.

SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft through early in the
week, with minimal fog over the waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Sinko
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...TWD/Sinko/Foisy
Marine...TWD/Sinko/Foisy