Ellsworth, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

001
FXUS61 KCAR 040435
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1135 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide south of the area tonight and remain
to our south on Tuesday. Low pressure will approach Tuesday
night into Wednesday, track northwest of the area Wednesday
night into Thursday and continue into eastern Canada on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11:30 PM Update. Valleys have chilled much cooler than hilly
areas and have had to make adjustments to temperatures across
the north to address the contrast in temps between hills and
valleys. Also, clouds are only very slowly advancing to adjusted
cloud cover across the region too.

Previous Discussion...
For Tuesday, heights rise all day as warmer air works into the
area. After the morning inversion breaks, temperatures will
climb into the 30s with most sites exceeding the freezing mark.
A few 40F readings will be possible in the Bangor area and near
the coast. Further north, a weak cold front will ease southward
from Quebec while a weak shortwave moves through the area in the
afternoon. The net result will be cloudy skies north of the
Downeast region and scattered snow showers developing across the
North Woods/northern Aroostook County during the afternoon.
Amounts will be generally less than one half inch, but could
yield some hazardous driving conditions by the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday Night: A large low pressure system over the Midwest
will stretch a warm front across the waters, bringing an
initial round of precip to the area. The concern will be the
warm nose ahead of the front causing some freezing rain in the
Central Highlands and Bangor Region. Model guidance shows the
surface temps to be hovering right around freezing. If these
temps go on the warmer side, the freezing rain is less likely.
Decided to keep freezing rain in the forecast for this update,
however, with low confidence.

Wednesday: The warm front should start to lift north across the
area. If freezing rain occurs, expect some to linger in the
morning before the warm air mixes down with the frontal passage.
Otherwise, rain in the south and wet snow to the north. Once
the front moves to the north of the state, the entire region
should be in rain. Patchy fog is expected to develop.

Wednesday Night: Rain amounts will increase as well and wind
with the low moving across New England. Around midnight, the LLJ
will set up over the water with the stronger S winds along the
coast. As of this update, wind gust concerns will be over the
waters with the coast seeing gusts up to 40 mph. In addition,
the boundary ahead of the cold front is expected to move in
after midnight. This could produce heavier rain bands across
Downeast and the upslope areas of the Central Highlands.

Thursday: As the cold front approaches the region, heavy rain is
expected to continue across Downeast in the morning. By the
afternoon, the front should be through the center of the state
moving from W to E. This should decrease winds and lighten the
rain for the rest of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The low pressure system is expected to intensify Thursday night
and the cold front exits to the E. Rain should switch back to
snow with the cold advection behind the front. Decided to
increase snow chances on Friday and Friday night with moisture
on the backside of the occlusion. By the weekend, models lose
consistency. The GFS should a large low moving across New
England on Sunday while the Euro and CmC show the system moving
out to sea well to the south. Temps should moderate by the
beginning for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas, expect VFR conditions through
much of the night with MVFR conditions then possible late.
VFR/MVFR Tuesday with scattered snow showers. Across Downeast
areas, VFR tonight through Tuesday. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots, becoming south/southwest tonight. Southwest winds 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...MVFR with possible IFR north.
VFR/MVFR south. Light freezing rain possible from BGR north to
GNR/MLT/HUL. Light SW wind.

Wednesday...IFR/LIFR. Freezing rain possible in the morning,
becoming all rain at all sites by Wed afternoon. SE wind 5 to
15 kt. LLWS possible late.

Wednesday night...LIFR due to cigs and fog. South winds 15 to
25 kt. LLWS likely.

Thursday...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR south in the
afternoon. SE wind 10 kts

Thursday night...Generally IFR due to cigs and rain, possibly
changing to snow late. Variable winds becoming NW 10 to 15 kts
late.

Friday...Cigs and vis trending up from IFR early morning towards
VFR by afternoon. Winds trending up with west winds gusting to
30 kt by midday.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR in snow showers. W winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is then in effect for all the
waters starting at 10 AM Tuesday. Light freezing spray tonight.

SHORT TERM: The SCA will continue into Tuesday night. Then winds
and seas will decrease below SCA early Wednesday morning. Winds
return to SCA Wed evening, then continue to increase Wed night
to gale force. A Gale Watch has been issued for all waters Wed
night to Thu afternoon. Gale force should return Friday
afternoon and start through Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Models are in strong agreement for midweek for a significant
rain and snowmelt event. General model consensus showing higher
probability of 1 to 2 inches of rain falling onto a snowpack
that is ripening in portions of Downeast Maine into the southern
Central Highlands. Latest analysis from NOHRSC combined with
surface observations shows a snowpack of 4-10 inches with
generally 0.75 to 2 inches of SWE within that pack for Downeast
Maine. Across the Central Highlands the pack ranges from 7-14
inches with 2 to 4 inches of SWE within the pack. Across
northern Maine including the Moosehead Region, the pack ranges
from 10-25 inches with isolated higher amounts up to 30-35
inches. The SWE values across Northern Maine are generally 3 to
5 inches with isolated higher amounts up to 8 inches.

NOHRSC analysis shows the snowpack temperature across Northern
Maine and the Central Highlands is quite cold and very unlikely
to melt much.  It will absorb any rainfall and compact.

Across interior and coastal Downeast Maine including the Bangor
region the snowpack is 28-32F which means the pack is near or
is "ripe". A ripe snowpack will discharge when rainfall falls
into the pack especially combined with prolonged T+Td >32F and
gusty warm winds, which are all expected. The ground is
completely frozen in these areas, and in some places 2 ft deep,
so no ground absorption will occur with this event. The
potential exists to completely discharge 0.75 to 2 inches of SWE
with total snowpack loss combining with the falling rainfall
creating significant runoff. Many of the rivers have solid ice
conditions with ice thickness varying between a few inches to a
foot or more.

Thermal/mechanical breakup of the ice is very possible in
Downeast areas resulting in the potential for ice jams. This is
supported by combined T/Td thawing degree hours reaching 700 to
900 during the warm up. These values are well associated with
ice jams historically.

Across much of the Central Highlands and northern Maine there
is little or no threat of ice movement with this event. This is
also supported by combined T/Td thawing degree hours below
threshold commonly associated with ice break up.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW/Bloomer
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...MCW/LaFlash
Marine...MCW/LaFlash
Hydrology...Sinko