Auburn, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

057
FXUS61 KGYX 101952
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
252 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through the region tonight with some light
showers, followed by a strong cold front crossing overnight
into Tuesday, again with only light amounts of rain and snow.
Northwesterly winds behind the front Tuesday will be gusting as
high as 30-40 mph. High pressure builds back into New England
Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for meaningful
precipitation may come towards the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Sfc ridge shifting SE this afternoon as sfc low exits the Great
Lakes this evening and tracks E into S QC overnight. This will
allow for a steady SW flow to develop on the boundary overnight,
and although mainly clear skies will allow for some early rad
cooling the clouds moving in combined with SW flow will allow
temps to stabilize later this evening, and slowly rise after
midnight. Also showers associated with Warm front extending from
the sfc low to our NW will move into NH this evening and into ME
around or shortly after midnight. There could be a few hours of
steady light rain, probably in the southern zones, but overall
QPF is generally in the one to two tenths range, which won;t do
much for the drought, but will at least dampen the ground in the
short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Some morning showers expected over ME, although in W ME they may
be done by 12Z, and likely by 15 Z in the E. In the mtns, closer
to the occlusion there will be clouds and a chance of showers
through most of the day. Meanwhile, in the S, should see at
least partly sunny skies by late morning into the afternoon as we
break out in the warm sector, with maxes rising to 60-65
outside the mtns, but still generally in the mid to upper 50s in
the mtns.

The cold front moves through Monday night, and will likely see
clouds increase a bit across the entire CWA, with a better
chance in the mtns, where the front will move through around
midnight. Once the cold air advection starts behind the front
the upslope showers will begin in the mtns, and will likely some
S?SHSN at higher elevations, but could see some snowflakes in
the mtns valleys as well toward daybreak Tuesday. S of the mtns,
it will likely stay with the strong CAA holding off until closer
to daybreak. Lows range from the low 30s N to the low 40s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern Overview: Ridging and surface high pressure over the
central CONUS will shift eastward through the first part of this
period. The ridge than begins to break down on Thursday as a
trough closes off just offshore. Our pattern will then be
dominated by this upper level low through the weekend as it
meanders over the waters before retrograding into Atlantic
Canada. A ridge briefly builds in at the tail end of the period
as one trough exits and another makes its approach.

Impacts:
*Northwesterly winds gusting to near advisory criteria Tuesday
 may result in isolated power outages and downed branches.

Details: Tuesday will begin with upslope snow showers bringing
light accumulations to the mountains. Ongoing cold air advection
and Froude numbers between 1 and 2, may mean some
flakes/sprinkles spill over into the foothills, but above
freezing surface temperatures would preclude any accumulations
there. Instead, the main story for Tuesday is going to be gusty
post frontal northwest winds. Well mixed forecast soundings are
suggesting a high probability that we see wind gusts in the
30-40 mph range during the afternoon and early evening, with
locally stronger gusts in the higher terrain of the mountains.
High temperatures top out in the 30s in the mountains, 40s to
south, and near 50 at the immediate coast. However, the wind
will make it feel about 10 degrees colder. Clear skies and
diminishing winds help temperatures fall into teens in northern
zones and 20s to the south. I think many locations hold on to
just enough flow to stay mixed and not totally decouple, but did
blend in some MOS guidance to go a hair cooler than guidance.

High pressure continues to build into the region Wednesday
keeping things clear and dry. With the colder airmass in place
we see high temperatures in the 40s again, with 30s in
mountains. A somewhat tight pressure gradient looks to linger
just to the east so another breezy day is possible with
northerly wind gusts around 15-20 mph, with some locally higher
gusts along the immediate coast and in the eastern portion of
our Maine zones. Wednesday looks like it could be the better
radiational cooling night, at least initially. High clouds will
be increasing through the night as high pressure breaks down and
upper level moisture begins to nose in. Although there is some
uncertainty in how cloud cover will ultimately effect the
radiational cooling window, I did blend in some MOS guidance
here as well to get temperatures just a couple degrees cooler
than Tuesday night. Partly cloudy skies Thursday look to keep
high temperatures similar to Wedensday. Winds will be light as
high pressure makes its exit to the north. Mostly cloudy skies
by nightfall look to keep temperatures in the 20s across the
area.

Looking ahead to Friday and the weekend, our weather pattern
may become dominated by strong vertically stacked low pressure
somewhere to our east. The Euro and Canadian model keep it close
enough to make for another potentially gusty day Friday with
westerly moving showers crossing the area through Saturday. The
GFS is currently the outlier, retrograding the low into atlantic
Canada much faster which would mean maybe just some upslope
showers in the mountains for our area. Time will tell on this.
The models do agree, at the moment anyway, on Sunday being
mostly dry as an upper level ridge briefly builds over the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR into this evening, but will see some IFR SHRA
and low cigs moving into NH terminals late this evening, and
into ME after midnight. These should clear with a return to VFR
by mid morning Monday. The only exception will be KHIE which
will hang onto MVFR cigs but could see a period of VFR in the
afternoon, before going back down to MVFR in upslope clouds and
SHRASN Mon evening

Long Term...MVFR/IFR conditions will start off Tuesday morning,
especially in the mountains as rain and snow showers will be
concluding. South of the mountains, conditions will quickly
clear to VFR, with MVFR ceilings holding on in the mountains.
The prevailing conditions across the area should be VFR by
Tuesday night. Northwesterly winds will be gusting 30-40 mph on
Tuesday, and 15-25 mph on Wednesday, before becoming lighter on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas begin picking up this evening with SCA
conds expected in the open water E of Casco Bay. These will last
through much of Monday, before subsiding a bit late Mon into
Mon night, but could see NW winds behind a cold front pick up
just before daybreak Tue.


Long Term...A front moving over the waters may bring winds to
gale force beginning Tuesday afternoon. This will ramp seas up
to around 5ft as well. Gales would diminish early Wednesday
morning but SCA conditions stay up through most of the day.
Conditions will stay below SCA criteria for Thursday and Friday
as high pressure settles over the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Baron