Auburn, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

761
FXUS61 KGYX 090247
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1047 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A small area of low pressure moves through the Gulf of Maine
this evening and overnight. High pressure brings a return to
drier and warmer conditions for the middle of the week. A cut
off low then stalls south of New England on Friday through the
weekend, bringing an extended period of cool and unsettled
conditions. The system then moves away early next week with a
return to drier and warmer conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1040 PM Update...Storm system and snow shield continues to pull
away ENEwd. However, several more hours of snow are expected for
northern and eastern zones. Winter weather advisories remain in
effect. Where the snow has ended, many slippery spots have
formed. Have expired the wind advisory as we will likely top out
gusts overnight in the 30-40 MPH range with higher gusts
possible higher terrain.

835 PM Update...Brest mesoscale forcing has moved a bit
northeastward over the last 3 hours, and therefore the heaviest
snow has moved into central and Midcoast ME extending northward
into portions of the western ME mountains. The storm has been an
over-performer for some so far, with the corridor from Gray to
northern Androscoggin County including eastern Oxford County
having gotten anywhere from 3 to 5 inches so far. Similar
numbers should be expected farther north and east as the forcing
moves eastward with time. Some 6 to 8 inch amounts are expected
in our eastern zones where the best forcing may stall for a bit
overnight. Winter weather advisories have been expanded to
Androscoggin and Kennebec Counties at this time.

No changes to the wind advisory although that aspect has
underperformed so far. Will continue to monitor.

550 PM Update...Have updated PoPs and snow amounts to better
capture latest trends in snowband development. Have increased
snow amounts a bit across central ME southward to about Gray as
bands persist for a little longer. Eventually we`ll have
dumbelling low pressure systems across northern and eastern ME
with a double short wave rotator look to the 500 height pattern
which will prolong banding in the western ME mountains, most
likely Somerset County. Will have to watch rates up that way for
a possible upgrade to low-end warning. So far not much has stuck
up there today according to various webcams so will hold the
course with an advisory for the time being. Otherwise, southern
zones will see an increase in winds this evening. The White
Mountains will continue to experience some squalls for a few
more hours with falling mid level temps.

Previously...

One year ago today, it was beautiful sunny day across the CWA,
and very unusual for early April, as we watch the solar eclipse.
Today is more of a typical April 8, lots of clouds, mixed
precip, and cold. Currently a weak sfc low falling apart over
srn QC, while another one is developing near Penobscot Bay. Over
the last couple of hours. The [precip has been filling in across
central Me and the ME coast, while the cold front is pushing
through Central and srn NH attm with increased wind. This
trends will continue as that second low organized late this
afternoon into early evening, but since the low doesn`t really
deepen much beyond that point, the window for accumulating snow
is only open from about 5 or 6 pm as the daytime heating
weakens, and midnight, when the forcing weakens. Any accums on
paved surfaces will happen in this time frame and likely N and E
of a line from around Brunswick, ME though the White Mtns,
excluding the immediate ME coast. S and W of there, other than
few sprinkles and flurries through about 00, there will be no
precip. Im not sure about how well interior Waldo county and S
Somerset will do with snowfall and meeting advisory criteria,
and the the band looks to develop with a more E-W orientation
and may stay N of there.

Also, should see some fairly deep mixing for a few hours this
evening, and this will allow W winds behind the front to tap
into a 50 kt low level jet passing through. IT won;t be complete
mixing, but in the wind advisory should see gusts around 40 mph,
with some approaching 50 mph. Outside of the advisory, it they
will likely be in the 30-40 mph range fro a few hours. Lows drop
off to the upper teens in the mtns to the mid to upper 20s in
the S, but those strong winds should dry things out pretty well
before areas without snow hit freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday will still be on the breezy side, but gusts should be
limited to 25-30 mph, and mainly through midday as highs
pressure starts to move in from the W. Some morning clouds will
linger, especially in the E zone and the mtns, but these should
clear out around midday as well. It will be cool with highs
only ranging from the mid 30s in the N to the mid 40s in the S.

Wed night see wind diminish, with clear and calm conds, so some
decoupling is expected. Warmer air will move in late above the
boundary lyr, which usually keep us from reach the best rad
cooling potential, but still lows should drop to the mid teens
in the mtns to the mid 20s in the S, although could be a wide
range of temps as sheltered ares drop below the more common
mins.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1040 PM Update...Little change to the extended forecast. Main
focus continues to be on postential rainy system for the
weekend, possible starting as wintry precipiation for some
locations Friday night.

Overview...

High pressure moves through New England on Thursday, and
settles northeast of the region across Atlantic Canada through
the weekend. Low pressure moving up the East Coast from the
Southern US becomes cut off and stalls south of New England,
bringing an extended period of unsettled and cool conditions.
The low likely doesn`t begin to move away until early next week
as a more progressive trough pushes in from the west.

Details...

High pressure drifts off to the northeast during the day on
Thursday, giving one more seasonable and mainly sunny day before
an extended period of unsettled conditions. High clouds
increase during the daytime across southern areas as the low
pressure approaches from the south, while northern areas see
more sunshine. Highs are generally expected to top out in the
mid 40s north, to mid 50s south.

As the low drifts northward, the high pressure will thwart its
progress and cause it to stall to the south. This sets up a
steady east-northeasterly flow that keeps much of northern New
England in a cool airmass from Friday through Sunday.
Additionally, waves of precip will be weakening as they approach
from the south starting Thursday night.

The first push of moisture approaches Thursday night, and will
be steadily weakening as it moves northward. Models, led by the
Euro, have been trending toward a drier solution during this
time period. POPs have been trended accordingly for the Thursday
night into Friday time period, with room to go lower so long as
the model trends continue. The day on Friday then looks mostly
dry, with the best chance for a shower across southern New
Hampshire, and the most sunshine likely across northern areas.

By later Friday night and Saturday, a more substantial push of
precipitation likely moves in as the low makes its closest pass.
Conditions will be cool enough for some snow, especially across
the interior and higher terrain, but precip type will likely be
more dependent on precip intensity, with snow confined more to
heavier rates. This precip shield will also be weakening as it
moves in, so there still remains much uncertainty on precip
type, as well as amounts.

The low continues to degrade to our south through Sunday and
into Monday, keeping the chance for showers around into Monday.
The best chance for these will be along the coast, with more
clearing expected through the day on Monday. With the clouds and
rounds of precip, temps start out cool early in the weekend
with highs in the 40s on Saturday. As more sun breaks through on
Sunday, highs likely recover back to the 50s, and then 60s
again by Monday. However, with any cut off low situation the
progression is far from certain from this far out, and these
systems have a history of moving more slowly than earlier
thinking. So we`ll continue to monitor the forecast over the
next few days, and won`t be surprised if the progression slows
down more over the next several model runs.

A more progressive trough likely swings into the Great Lakes by
the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe next week, helping to clear
the last of the cut off low and bring in a drier westerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...KHIE/KAUG/KRKD will likely hold onto to MVFR or IFR
through the mid hours, and could see slow improvement through
day, while the other terminals should improve to VFR this
evening, if theyre not there already, W winds will gust to
around 30-35 kts at times through this evening as well, before
falling back closer to 25 kts in the pre-dawn hours. After that
VFR expected through Wed night, with winds diminishing during
Wed afternoon.

Long Term...VFR conditions prevail on Thursday, with some MVFR
ceilings possible across southern terminals Thursday night and
Friday. MVFR to IFR conditions likely arrive from south to north
Friday night, with rain likely south, and rain and snow likely
across northern terminals. IFR conditions likely linger through
Saturday, with gradually more breaks of MVFR ceilings from
Saturday night through Sunday. Conditions likely gradually
return to VFR from west to east Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...The strongest winds over the waters should be
through this evening before they start subsiding after midnight,
but will likely need SCA through at least midday on Wed. Winds
become light Wed night.

Long Term...High pressure settles across the Canadian Maritimes
for Friday through the weekend, as low pressure stalls south of
New England. An extended period of SCA conditions are likely in
northeasterly winds from Friday night through Sunday. The low
then moves east by early next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ007-
     008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ009-
     013-014-020>022.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NHZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Clair
AVIATION...
MARINE...