Zachary, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

355
FXUS64 KLIX 091153
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
653 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Upper ridging off the Atlantic Coast and along the Pacific Coast.
Upper low over Minnesota, with multiple shortwaves rotating around
it, including one over northeast Texas. Earlier convection that
was headed toward our Mississippi coastal counties has largely
dissipated over the last 90 minutes. Our eyes turn toward the
northwest, where a line of storms had moved into northwest
Louisiana near Shreveport. This line of storms has also shown
significant overall weakening in the last 90 minutes. On its
current track, if it remains intact, it will reach our
northwestern counties/parishes around 500 AM CDT. Temperatures
early this morning ranged from the middle 70s to lower 80s, with
dew points in the mid and upper 70s.

Main question over the next 36 hours pertains to the when, where
and how strong any thunderstorms will be. The current convection
to our northwest, while moving into what should be more favorable
conditions, it`s doing it at a diurnally unfavorable time. Most
of the convection allowing models show the storms continuing to
weaken, or dissipate, through sunrise. Most of those models also
show convective redevelopment by mid to late morning along
whatever boundary the current convection sets up, although with
somewhat less areal coverage than the current activity. With CAPE
values near 3000, moderate shear and lapse rates around 7C/km
forecast for the midday hours, certainly some potential for storms
to become severe, especially near and north of the Interstate
10/12 corridor from about Interstate 55 eastward. Most or all of
the storms should weaken or dissipate around sunset this evening,
with much of the overnight hours being relatively precipitation
free.

Tuesday will see another round of showers or storms, likely
focused near and to the south of any remnant boundary. That`s
likely to favor the southern half of our area instead of the
north for any strong to severe storms. However, even areas to the
north of the boundary are likely to see some showers or storms,
just not as intense. Instantaneous areal coverage may not get much
above 40-50 percent on Tuesday, but for the 12 hour period as a
whole, can`t really argue against categorical PoPs.

With quite a bit more cloud cover than the last couple days, high
temperatures likely to remain closer to 90 the next two days, with
the threat of heat indices reaching 108 lower than the past day or
two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

After Tuesday`s convection, shortwave ridging attempts to build
into the southeastern states briefly, with troughing over Texas.
We never really get rid of the deeper moisture across most of the
area, with precipitable water values remaining in the 1.7 to 1.9
range for much of the week. The exception would be the southwest
Mississippi counties on Wednesday, where values fall below 1.5
inches briefly.

While I would expect at least scattered showers and storms each
day, the NBM PoPs look as if they may be 10 to 20 percent too high
for much of the week. Won`t back them down quite yet, as the ECMWF
is a bit more supportive of that level of PoPs, but something to
monitor.

With daily chances for showers and storms, holding high
temperatures fairly close to normal (around 90) looks to be the
way to go. Overnight lows will be a bit above normal, in the mid
70s, but if storms occur late enough in the day, a cold pool could
drop overnight lows a bit below current forecast in some
locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

MVFR ceiling at KMCB at forecast issuance, and VFR elsewhere.
Several bands of SHRA/TSRA have developed over the last hour or
two, but none of the lines are solid. Mesoscale modeling is very
inconsistent on whether a particular line is persistent or not.
Will primarily use TEMPO for convection this morning and PROB30
for the afternoon hours. Direct impacts would produce MVFR
ceilings and IFR for visibilities. Most convection should
dissipate near or after sunset. Some potential for MVFR to IFR
ceilings prior to sunrise Tuesday, especially at KMCB.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Will allow the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines to run their
course this morning, ending at 12z. We will assess the need each
day for additional headlines during the evening hours, but at this
time, it looks like wind speeds this evening should remain below
15 knots. The main concerns for marine operators will be the
daily/nightly threat for thunderstorms to produce locally higher
winds and/or seas. Do not see any prolonged period over the next 5
days where thunderstorms will not be a threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  70  88  68 /  90  70  80  30
BTR  90  74  89  72 /  80  60  90  30
ASD  91  73  89  70 /  50  60  90  40
MSY  93  77  90  76 /  60  40  90  40
GPT  90  73  88  73 /  70  70  80  60
PQL  90  72  90  71 /  60  70  80  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW