Sulphur, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS64 KLCH 221056
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
456 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

A large surface high centered over the eastern Great Lakes is
ridging down into the forecast area bringing a cold modified
Canadian air mass with it. Air temperatures are near freezing
north of the I-10 corridor, mid to upper 30s along the I-10
corridor, to lower 40s along and south of the intracoastal
waterway. With the clear skies and light winds, locations at or
below the mid 30s that see a slight spread in air and dew point
temperatures, will see frost formation that will dissipate shortly
after sunrise.

Looks like this will be the last really cold morning as the
surface high continues to move off to the east and low level winds
become more easterly today, then southeast by tonight into Monday
bringing a warming and moderation of temperatures.

The upper level pattern will also change early this week becoming
more progressive with a split flow helping to bring energy from
the Pacific across the Rockies to begin to energize the southern
jet stream.

First significant short wave with this pattern will arrive late on
Tuesday (Christmas Eve.) Increasing lift from this system will
work with the abundant Gulf moisture to begin to kick off shower
activity mainly over southeast by late afternoon into the evening
that will spill over into western Louisiana in the overnight.

The Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been trimmed back to
the west some, and will include mainly interior southeast Texas,
as this is the location that will see the highest PWAT values
(close to the 90th percentile value of 1.35 inches) and 100H-50H
Mean Layer Relative Humidity Values over 70 percent. Therefore,
any stronger showers or storms that may form will have the
potential to produce high rainfall rates of over 1 inch per hour.

Will have to watch closely to see if any storms can get going
during the afternoon period over southeast Texas when daytime
heating will be at its best as low level instability and low
level shear could bring about a strong thunderstorm with gusty
winds.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

The southern stream short wave will weaken as it moves across the
forecast area early on Christmas Day with scattered showers that
will gradually end during the afternoon from west to east.

The remainder of the week into next weekend looks warm and
unsettled.

At the surface, high pressure will ridge in from off the US east
coast. This will allow persistent southerly flow off the Gulf to
bring in plenty of Gulf moisture along with unseasonably warm
temperatures that will be around 10F degrees above climo norms.

Flow aloft will remain progressive with East Pac energy continuing
to ride in the southern stream out of the Rockies and across the
forecast area bringing occasionally upper level disturbances.

As usual there are some timing differences and strength of the
features in the global guidance, although the next disturbance
after Christmas Day looks to be on late Thursday, that could bring
some strong storms and heavy rain if the ECMWF scenario comes
close to verifying.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 454 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Surface ridge from a high centered over the eastern Great Lakes
will shift to the east today. Light northeast winds will gradually
become light easterly will be the only change from the high moving
to the east. Air mass will remain on the dry side with clear
skies. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

A mainly light offshore flow over the coastal waters will
transition to a more easterly flow today as the surface ridge
centered over the eastern Great Lakes gradually moves off to the
east. A light to occasionally modest southeast flow will develop
tonight into Monday as the ridge moves further to the east.

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected beyond
Monday for the remainder of the week as the surface remains off
the east coast of the US and a series of disturbance move across
the Southern Plains.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  57  35  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  60  41  68  52 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  39  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  62  47  71  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07