Prairieville, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

814
FXUS64 KLIX 150419
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1119 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 14
2025

A broad and deep ridge axis will continue to build over the area
on Friday and remain in place through the remainder of the
weekend. The end result will be near to slightly below normal
precipitable water values ranging from 1.7 to 1.9 inches each day.
These lower values are largely attributable to the increased deep
layer subsidence that will accompany the building ridge axis. Any
drying will be most evident in the mid-levels, but increased
mixing of that drier air to the surface will help push dewpoints
down slightly each afternoon into the lower 70s. This will also
help to keep heat index values in check this weekend for most
areas. However, enough moisture will be in place today to support
heat index values of around 108 to 110 degrees, and a heat
advisory is in effect. Additional heat advisories are currently
not expected for the weekend, but this could change if the ridge
ends up being a bit weaker than currently forecast. However, it
will still be toasty as highs climb into the low to mid 90s and
heat index values reach to around 105 to 108 degrees each
afternoon.

As the ridge dominates the area and keeps PWATS closer or slightly
below average, overall PoP will also be near average or around 30
to 50 percent each day. The PoP will be diurnally driven with the
greatest convective activity anticipated in the afternoon hours.
Overnight, convective activity is not expected over inland areas
as the greatest diurnal instability shifts offshore. Overall, a
near normal August weekend is on tap for the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The first half of the week will see little change in the overall
pattern from the weekend. Although a weak inverted trough and
associated vort max is expected to move into the region on the
southeast periphery of the upper level ridge, there will be little
change in overall precipitable water values. Readings will still
be near average at around 1.8 inches, and this will keep daily PoP
values also near average in the 30 to 50 percent range each
afternoon even with a slightly more favorable upper level pattern
for updraft development. Temperatures will continue to climb into
the low to mid 90s, or near normal for mid- August, and heat
index values will remain around 105 degrees each afternoon.

A pattern shift will take place on Thursday and Friday as the
upper level ridge shifts further to the west, and a broad and weak
trough axis descends southward into the Tennessee Valley. This
approaching trough will have a weak attendant surface boundary
associated with it, and this boundary should surge southward on
the back of convective activity into the Deep South. It is far too
early to determine exactly where the boundary will stall, but the
most likely scenario would be somewhere along the I-20 corridor.
Although the boundary will very likely remain north of the area,
an increase in available moisture will occur as the broader trough
brings some deeper moisture into the area. The mid-levels will
moisten and cool dramatically allowing PWATS to surge to between
the 75th and 90th percentile or between 2 and 2.25 inches. The end
result will be greater convective development chances and
slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s due to
the rainfall and greater cloud coverage in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Widely scattered convective activity will be the primary concern
to aviators through the forecast period. The peak time for
convective activity will be between 17z and 00z at all of the
terminals and this will be reflected by PROB30 wording in the
forecast. Any convective impacts will be short-lived with gusty
winds to 30 knots and brief downpours reducing visibility to 1 to
3 miles being the primary concerns. Outside of the convective
impacts, VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

The Summer doldrums will continue across the coastal waters
through the middle of next week. Light winds of 10 knots or less
and seas of 2 feet or less can be expected. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will also develop in the early morning hours
each day across the offshore waters. The storms will then move
more inland and impact the tidal lakes in the afternoon hours. Any
of these storms could produce locally higher winds and waves. A
few could also produce some waterspouts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  93  74 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  94  76  95  76 /  40  10  40  20
ASD  92  75  93  75 /  40  10  30  20
MSY  95  79  94  79 /  40  10  40  20
GPT  92  76  92  76 /  30  10  30  20
PQL  92  75  93  75 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG