New Orleans, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

051
FXUS64 KLIX 221742
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1142 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

 - Fog may be possible each night and morning through the week.
   Commuters and holiday travelers are urged to allow extra time
   to their destinations.

 - The warm up we`ve talked about is here. Through the week look
   for daytime highs mostly in the upper 70s and quite possibly
   reaching the low 80s and overnight lows around 60.

 - Next cold front and chance of rain will be due into the region
   at the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

After a foggy and/or rainy start this morning, additional showers
are occuring over portions of southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi. This is in response to some weak isentropic upglide
from a remnant surface front over the tidal lakes this morning.
Additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible through
the afternoon, the surface feature is expected to lift northward
as an H5 ridge begins to spread into the region tonight and into
Tuesday. With the drier trend taking shape, POPs decrease quite
rapidly, however, we do not escape the two primary stories going
into the holiday. 1) fog...with low level moisture (especially
with wet grounds) and lackluster winds, we`ll likely wake to some
morning fog Tuesday morning, especially over the Florida Parishes
and south MS. This, once it lifts will allow for...2)
temperatures to bounce back into the 70s for most...maybe a touch
cooler adjacent to the MS Gulf Coast given the cooler sound
waters. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Going into the long range, high pressure will be in control at the
surface and weak H5 ridging will also be over the region. This
should limit POPs and will allow for the warmer pattern to
continue through the holiday. Outside of temperatures, we`ll still
be watching the potential for fog each morning as the low level
flow becomes very stagnant. Some combination of both marine/sea
fog drifting in overnight along the immediate coast as well as
radiational fog inland will be possible. Stat guidance is showing
this potential clearly so went ahead and added areas of fog for
Wednesday morning and again Christmas morning. We`ll take a look
at subsequent mornings in later packages, but it wouldn`t be
surprising for additional fog to be added.

By later this week and into the upcoming weekend, the upper level
ridge flattens allowing for a more zonal or progressive flow to
develop over the forecast area. This will not do much to the
overall weather regime...at least until late Sunday or perhaps at
the start of the new workweek. GLobals have been showing our next
cold front moving through the region, which gives us our next
chance of rainfall after today. However, the latest run of the GFS
is drier with much of the upper level trough missing our region to
the east. Other globals are quite a bit stronger and further west,
so beyond day 6 confidence in the current forecast is rather low
for now. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VIS and CIGs are gradually improving across the area this
afternoon. Eventually, VFR for most with slight bumps here or
there due to isolated -SHRAs. Rain should be well out of the
region by around sunset this evening. However, where we do get
rain expect more VIS/CIG issues (at least lower reductions) for
these terminals along I10 and north. Locally dense fog will be
possible for ASD, GPT, HDC, MCB, and perhaps BTR by around 23/10z.
Toward the end of the cycle conditions will improve back to VFR
as fog and low stratus dissipate. GPT, however, may hang onto low
stratus for a good bit of Tuesday morning before breaking out.
Expect mostly light easterly winds. (Frye)


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

As we move into the new workweek, a strong dome of high pressure
dominates and we see easterly winds at 5-10 kt generally for much of
the week. There is also a signal for fog through the week, but for
now the highest impact will be Wednesday morning where marine dense
fog advisories may be needed. The next front is due into the region
early next week. Look for winds to be on the increase very late in
the period with this feature. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  56  74  55  75 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  57  77  57  76 /  20   0   0   0
ASD  54  74  54  74 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  59  75  59  73 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  56  71  57  71 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  53  74  54  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF