New Iberia, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

305
FXUS64 KLCH 010800
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
300 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon with
  an upper level disturbance and return flow moisture. There is a
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms for southeast
  Texas, with large hail the main concern, although damaging winds
  also have a low probability.

- A return to a more typical summer time pattern of daytime
  heating showers and warm/humid conditions is expected during
  next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

A seasonal start to our Sunday is ongoing, with temperatures
currently ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s amid most clear
skies. At the surface, weak high pressure is situated over the
Southern Plains/Gulf Coast providing calm winds this morning,
which will become light and variable post-sunrise. Aloft, large
mid/upper level trough extends from New England to FL, with a
southeastward moving shortwave trough noted near KC this morning.
As this shortwave dives SEwrd today, eventually moving across the
Ark-La-Tex and southern MS Valley this afternoon/evening, it will
induce scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Convection is expected to be ongoing over NE TX by mid-morning,
with those storms eventually spreading towards our SE TX counties
by the afternoon. The biggest question continues to be how much of
this convection will actually hold together as it moves south,
which will largely depend on how much moisture return we get
through the next few hours. NBM continues to lean towards a slow
return of moisture today, and in turn a drier solution, with <20%
POPs on tap for SE TX this afternoon into this evening. While rain
chances are low, any storms that do develop could become severe,
with SPC outlining our SE TX counties and a sliver of SW LA in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5), with hail and damaging winds being
the primary threats. Any convection that does manage to develop
should taper off with sunset, as the shortwave exits off to our
east overnight and weak ridging begins to build over TX.

Monday and Tuesday, a combination of weak ridging aloft and
nearby surface high pressure will result in warm and humid
conditions with minimal rainfall. While ridging aloft keeps POPs
in check, southeasterly surface flow becomes well established by
early Monday and begins to advect Gulf moisture inland. Afternoon
highs top out in the upper 80s to low 90s Mon and Tues, while
overnight lows range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

17


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Moving into the later half of the work week, a fairly typical
summertime pattern of diurnally driven convection and warm and
humid conditions sets up on Wed and persists into the weekend. At
the surface, high pressure centered near the Carolinas continues
to result in SErly surface winds and a continuous fetch of warm
moist air into the region each day. Aloft, weak ridging present
early in the weak breaks down throughout Wednesday, with a
weakness developing aloft through the rest of the work week. This
will result in a daily chance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms driven by the seabreeze/daytime heating. Rain
chances peak around 40-50% each afternoon and taper off with
sunset each day. Away from convection, hot and humid weather
continues with highs reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s each
day.

By the weekend there is some indication that upper ridging will
become established over northern Mexico/TX, tampering down rain
chances for at least the western half of the area. This will in
turn result in even warmer conditions with temps reaching into the
mid 90s in many locations.

17

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Light, variable winds early this morning will turn southerly by
Sunday afternoon as high pressure slides east of the region and a
quickly advancing shortwave aloft digs through the region. This
disturbance will have the potential to develop a few showers or
thunderstorms during the afternoon potentially impacting BPT, but
probs are 20% at best.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Light and variable winds this morning gradually become southerly
by the afternoon as surface high builds across the northern Gulf
into the coastal waters. This high looks to stay in place into
next week keeping a light to occasional modest onshore flow in
place. In addition, there will be a daily chance of mainly
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms throughout much of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  67  89  69 /  10  10  10   0
LCH  88  72  89  73 /  10  10  10   0
LFT  87  70  88  71 /  10  10  10   0
BPT  90  73  89  73 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...66