Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

945
FXUS64 KSHV 030357
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1057 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Although we still have some convection out there, the main severe
weather threat has diminished. Currently, the sfc cold front has
move to along a line from Tyler Texas, to near Benton Louisiana,
to just west of El Dorado Arkansas. Temperatures behind the front
has dropped into the 60s, with dew points in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. However, the 850 mb front has settled near the I-30
corridor. This has been the location of new shower and
thunderstorm development over the past couple of hours. Can`t rule
out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm over the next few
hours, but the tornadic threat should be near zero. As we move
through the overnight period, the sfc front is expected to retreat
back northward. This could result in the redevelopment of strong
to severe thunderstorms near the I-30 corridor and northward near
daybreak. Expect a range in overnight lows tonight. South of the
front, locations will see humid conditions and lows in the 70s.
North of the boundary, overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s
to low to mid 60s. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Convection is already ongoing, albeit still sub-severe for now,
along and north of I-30 while areas farther south have limited to
just a few spotty showers. Looking at our the initial output from
our special 20Z sounding, capping in still evident invof 700 mb so
that explains the lack of more robust convection along and south
of I-20. The expectation of further erosion of this cap remains,
but any further delay could limit the window of severe convection
across SE OK and NE TX as the sfc cold front nears our westernmost
zones. Farther north and east, especially along and north of I-20,
the window of opportunity extends a bit longer into this evening
as additional cooling aloft should help to chip away at what small
cap remains in place.

For this reason, the latest update to the Day 1 convective outlook
remains largely unchanged with the Moderate Risk area highlighted
across the NE quarter of our CWA in parts of far Northern LA and
much of SW AR. The more expansive Enhanced Risk area is still very
much in play as well across much of East TX and North LA along the
I-20 corridor while the risk drops farther south of the corridor.
The current temperature here in Shreveport sits at 88F, and that
has exceeded expectations. With that said, we expect more robust
convective initiation over the next few hours across at least the
northern half of the region with storms quickly maturing and going
severe in short order when and where they do develop. Once again,
all modes are expected throughout this event with a few stronger,
high-end tornadoes very much in the equation along with damaging
wind gusts and large hail up to 2+" in diameter, especially with
any discrete supercells. The severe threat should gradually begin
to wind down by late evening into the overnight hours as we lose
heating and the cold front loses any additional forward momentum
and eventually becomes stationary near or just north of I-30.

Moving ahead to Thursday, the front will generally remain parked
invof of I-30 with additional shortwave energy swinging NE across
TX into the Middle Red River Valley over top the stalled boundary.
This will present a renewed potential for severe weather across
much of the region, especially along and near the boundary invof
of the I-30 corridor. In addition, the threat of heavy rainfall
and flash flooding will become more of a concern. Based on this
expectation, did expand the existing Flood Watch another tier of
counties south in NE TX to include the remainder of the I-30
corridor. This Flood Watch takes effect at 7PM tonight and runs
through Saturday night to account for this prolonged period of
severe weather and heavy rainfall through the end of this week and
into the first half of the weekend. More details on that follow in
the long-term discussion below.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

By Friday, additional waves of upper-level energy will continue to
track NE in the persistent SW flow regime across the South Central
U.S. Additionally, the stalled boundary will remain largely unmoved
across the NW portions of the CWA. As a result, the continuation of
severe weather and heavy rainfall will persist as the expansive
warm sector environment continues to encompass much of the region.
Instability and shear profiles will continue to support all modes
of severe weather through Saturday and possibly Saturday night when
the primary upper-level trough responsible for this rather extended
unsettled period finally ejects eastward into the Lower and Mid-MS
Valley.

This significant change in the upper-level pattern will usher in a
much cooler air mass across the region for Sunday into early next
week. As a result, look for below normal temperatures during this
timeframe from late weekend through early next week. Fortunately,
dry weather will also return and allow for a much needed break
from heavy rainfall and severe weather fatigue. In the meantime,
prepare for an active weather period through at least the first
half of the upcoming weekend with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Widespread thunderstorms, many severe, have been affecting
northernmost terminals this evening and will continue to do so
through the evening. Within thunderstorms, variable winds with
gusts to 40mph are likely, along with some hail. Terminals at
most risk for thunderstorms thru the evening include TXK, SHV,
ELD, and possibly GGG. Most thunderstorms should weaken overnight,
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing in
the vicinity into Thursday morning across northern terminals just
mentioned. MVFR and VFR ceilings this evening will drop
overnight, likely to low-end MVFR and IFR and continue through
Thursday morning before attempting to lift back to high-end MVFR
or lower-end VFR towards the afternoon. Thunderstorm
redevelopment is likely by late morning or afternoon, essentially
for all terminals, with the lowest chances at LFK and MLU.
Sustained winds (outside of thunderstorms) out of the S 10-15kts
with gusts 20-25kts through this TAF period.

Kovacik

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening for
the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  87  73  87 /  50  60  50  50
MLU  75  89  73  89 /  40  30  20  40
DEQ  59  72  61  80 /  70  90  90 100
TXK  63  80  69  85 /  80  90  90  90
ELD  69  83  67  86 /  80  80  60  70
TYR  68  84  71  84 /  60  70  70  80
GGG  73  85  70  86 /  70  70  60  60
LFK  74  88  72  88 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...23