Natchitoches, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

643
FXUS64 KSHV 141003
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
403 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1213 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

 - A cold frontal passage Wednesday will bring a sharp cooldown to
   the region Wednesday night and Thursday, before a brief warming
   trend commences Friday.

 - Another reinforcing cold front will move through the area
   Friday afternoon and evening, which will bring about colder and
   more seasonal conditions for the upcoming weekend.

 - Following the areas of light rain tonight and Wednesday morning
   across portions of East Texas and North Louisiana, dry
   conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Areas of light rain has overachieved this evening over portions of
E TX and N LA, ahead of the closed upper low noted on the evening
water vapor imagery over the Hill Country of SCntrl TX. Strong
forcing ahead of the low has allowed the air mass to saturate from
the top down mainly along/S of the I-20 corridor, with low
temp/dewpoint depressions evident via sfc obs extending from
portions of Deep E TX into Cntrl LA where the more measurable rain
has fallen. Meanwhile, additional forcing aloft should continue
along this W to E corridor overnight even as the low opens as it
moves through SE TX/S LA, and ahead of a developing longwave
trough that the water vapor imagery depicts diving S into the Red
River Valley into NCntrl AR/Mid MS and OH Vallies. This is already
evident on the mosaic radar imagery with -RA redevelopment along the
I-20 corridor along the attendant trough axis NE of the low, which
should allow the back edge of the -RA to diminish from NW to SE late
tonight. While this -RA should mostly exit the SE zones by daybreak
Wednesday, additional areas of -RA primarily associated with lowering
AC cigs along the amplifying longwave trough axis will remain possible
through midday across portions of SW AR and the Ern sections of NCntrl
LA, where slight chance pops were maintained before the better forcing
shifts SE out of the area into the Lower MS Valley.

With the trough passage through the day, a cold front now analyzed
from the TX South Plains into SW/Cntrl/NE OK into the Ozarks will
be reinforced SE into the NW zones by daybreak, and across the
region through midday. Cold/dry advection behind the front will
be delayed a bit, with above normal temps expected areawide
before the post-frontal stratocu field increases/thickens during
the afternoon. The post-frontal pressure gradient will also
tighten by mid-morning through the afternoon, although sustained
winds/gusts should remain mostly below Wind Advisory criteria over
portions of E TX. The increasing stratocu field through the day
should also help to taper the extent of mixing as well before the
gradient begins to gradually relax Wednesday night when sfc
ridging builds S into the Srn Plains. Much colder and drier air
will deepen over the area tonight, setting the stage for
widespread subfreezing conditions by Thursday morning beneath the
ridge as the wind decouples. Despite the deep and dry NW flow in
wake of the longwave trough passage, below normal temps are
expected areawide Thursday, although the Ewd shift of the sfc
ridge over the region through the afternoon and along the middle
Gulf Coast Thursday night will result in returning Srly bndry lyr
winds and thus, milder temps over the area.

The roller coaster in temps will again peak Friday as the SWrly
low level flow increases ahead of the next cold front, that will
be driven SE into the region during the day, ahead of the next
deepening longwave trough that will amplify over the Plains and MS
Valley. This will force the return of colder/below normal temps
for the upcoming weekend, with increasing elevated cigs limiting
the extent of insolation. While the NBM is dry, the extent of
elevated forcing along the base of the trough may result in a few
sprinkles or -RA during the day Saturday, before drying aloft
commences/deepens before temps are able to fall to/below freezing.
Cool and dry conditions will continue Sunday into the start of the
new work week, as a WNW flow aloft persists.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Winds are quickly veering around to the southwest in advance of a
strong cold front that will move from northwest to southeast
across our airspace today. Precipitation thus far as been moving
south and east away from our I-20 terminals across NE TX and N LA
and expect that trend to continue as well. Mid and high cloud
cover are plentiful in advance of the front but cannot rule out a
lower ceilings near 35hdft to near 4kft by late morning into the
afternoon hours across all but the LFK terminal. The biggest
terminal issue will be post frontal winds today that will become
northwest near 15-20kts with gusts near 30kts at times today.
Those winds will subside after sunset this evening.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1213 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through this weekend. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  31  52  38 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  60  29  49  33 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  57  22  51  28 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  60  27  53  36 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  60  26  49  33 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  62  29  54  42 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  29  53  40 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  65  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13