Monroe, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

826
FXUS64 KSHV 091447
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
947 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

We are quiet across the Four State Region this morning following
the passing of an MCS and associated light to moderate precip
behind the complex. A few light reflectivity returns have been
present on the SHV radar, though they appear to be so light that
what is falling may not even be hitting the ground. That being
said, not ruling out a stray shower or two as we enter into the
early afternoon. Hi-res has also started to back off on any
significant afternoon redevelopment of thunderstorms when compared
to some earlier suggestions. As a result, PoPs have been lowered,
but still highlighting a 20 to 30 percent chance for a stray
afternoon thunderstorm near and south of I-20 with an advancing
surface boundary, and some marginal instability within a primarily
worked over environment.

KNAPP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Our seasonally active NW flow pattern resulted in yet another MCS
that did manage to produce severe wind gusts across much of NE TX
earlier this morning. Fortunately, this convective complex became
increasingly cold pool dominant and has been gradually weakening
over the past few hours after advancing farther east into NW LA.
Sub-severe wind gusts upwards of 40 mph remain possible along the
leading edge of the line of convection across Northeast and North
Central LA. With that said, plan to allow the remainder of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 399 to expire on time at 4 AM.

As for the remainder of today, a southward advancing sfc boundary
still to our NW is progged to make additional SE progress into our
region in wake of the departing MCS later this morning. This may
focus some additional scattered convection through this afternoon
but given the worked over environment ahead of the boundary, don`t
anticipate much more than just some spotty convection during peak
heating hours, which may carry over into the evening hours. Rain
cooled air and lingering cloud cover should hold temperatures in
check today with highs generally ranging from the mid and upper
80s for most locations with isolated lower 90s in extreme southern
zones.

As for the aforementioned frontal boundary, it is not expected to
fully clear the region before pulling up stationary later tonight
across our southern zones. This will maintain rain chances through
the remainder of the short-term period, especially along and south
of the I-20 corridor. Due to the presence of the stalled boundary
and persistent cloud cover, temperatures will generally maintain
near seasonal averages in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees once
again on Tuesday afternoon while overnight temperatures tonight
will range a bit more as northern zones will fall back into the
60s whereas southern zones should hold on to lower 70s south of
the boundary.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

As we move into the mid to late week timeframe, the upper-level
pattern will transition to what we commonly describe as dirty and
perturbed SW flow. Much like NW flow, this will result in a very
unsettled period with daily rain chances beginning Wednesday and
continuing on through next weekend. Convective coverage will be
maximized each day during the hours of peak heating as is often
the case this time of year, and temperatures will respond in kind
by maintaining near to slightly below seasonal averages depending
on exactly where convection is most heavily concentrated each day.

By late in the weekend and into early next week, the upper trough
largely responsible for this SW flow pattern will finally begin
to lift out of the region. This should allow for reduced rain
chances and a return to more typical mid-June weather conditions
with the upper-level ridge across Mexico and the SW CONUS slowly
expanding farther east toward the Southern Plains. Until then,
look for additional rainfall amounts to range from 1-3 inches on
average through next weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

For the 09/12Z TAFs, precipitation impacts to area terminals have
largely diminished as of the beginning of this forecast period.
Additional areas of showers with possible rumbles of thunder will
move in from the west, particularly impacting our southern and
eastern airspace this morning, with associated deterioration of
CIGs from lower VFR to MVFR. As this new rainfall pushes east,
skies will begin to clear from the northwest through the course of
this forecast period. Variable winds of 5 to 10 kts will continue
before assuming a more northwesterly orientation into the
afternoon hours.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Spotter activation is not anticipated through the next 24 hours.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  72  90  72 /  20  30  30  10
MLU  87  69  89  68 /  30  20  30  10
DEQ  87  63  89  65 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  87  67  89  68 /  20  10  10   0
ELD  85  64  89  65 /  30  20  10   0
TYR  86  71  87  70 /  10  50  40  20
GGG  87  69  88  69 /  20  40  40  10
LFK  90  72  88  70 /  30  50  70  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26