Monroe, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

081
FXUS64 KSHV 021607
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1107 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For the mid-morning update, the only change to the forecast so far
was to issue a Wind Advisory areawide as the pressure gradient has
tightened significantly ahead of the approaching cold front. This
advisory will run through 7PM this evening with gradient winds of
15-25 mph sustained along with higher gusts between 30 to 40 mph.

As for the impending severe threat, everything still appears on
schedule with an early-mid afternoon initiation of thunderstorms
along and ahead of the sfc boundary. Initial onset of convection
is expected along and north of I-30, and then gradually expanding
farther SE down along the I-20 corridor where an Enhanced Risk of
severe storms remains highlighted. The Moderate Risk was slightly
expanded southward to include the northernmost portions of a few
LA parishes bordering the AR state line. This will be the area of
utmost concern today with regard to the tornadic threat, including
much of SW AR into far Northern LA. In addition to a few strong
tornadoes, the threat of very large hail and damaging winds will
contribute to this all modes severe weather outlook.

Per our 12Z sounding, the atmosphere is already well-primed for
an active day of severe weather as indicated by mid-level lapse
rates of 9.5C/km. In addition, 3000 J/kg of sfc CAPE was also
evident although there is quite a bit of convective inhibition
(CIN) to overcome before that can be realized. However, strong
sfc warming so far this morning should provide for a gradual but
steady erosion of this capping inversion by later this afternoon.
Once that occurs, storms will should rapidly fire and mature in
an increasingly sheared environment with all threats previously
mentioned in the mix through much of the afternoon and into the
early evening hours.

Ahead of the thunderstorm initiation, we will attempt a special
sounding this afternoon to sample the atmosphere as we approach
peak heating. The exact time of that special sounding is still to
be determined, but we will provide future updates via our chat and
social media platforms.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Much warmer and more humid air has quickly spilled back N across
the region compared to just 24 hrs ago, with upper 60s to near 70
degree dewpoints now evident across SE OK/SW AR and areas to the S
across much of N and Cntrl TX and the Lower MS Valley. The latest
sfc analysis indicates a Pacific front now advancing E into Wrn
OK, with a narrow band of convection having recently developed
along this bndry from Ern KS SW into Wrn OK. This convective
development has been a bit slower than previous hi-res model runs,
but should quickly advance E into ECntrl OK while possibly backbuilding
S into portions of N TX by daybreak this morning. The air mass
ahead of this convection remains quite unstable, although capping
is evident in advance of the convection but should erode with the
approach of the front. Deep lyr forcing is expected to persist
across Cntrl/Ern OK into Wrn AR this morning associated with the
lead shortwave trough that will eject NE from the TX Panhandle
into NW OK/KS. Thus, the convection may linger through mid to late
morning as it enters extreme NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR before
weakening.

Meanwhile, the Pacific front should slow by afternoon as it
enters the higher terrain of SE OK/Wrn AR, with the various hi-res
progs suggesting that a weak sfc bndry from the morning
convection will advance farther E into E TX/SW AR this afternoon,
serving as focus for scattered to numerous convection development
by mid to late afternoon as additional forcing aloft per
increasing divergence ahead of the 130-140kt upper jet streak
along the base of the Desert SW longwave trough. The environment
will remain quite unstable this afternoon with MLCape increasing
to 2500-3500 J/kg across the warm/moist sector ahead of the front,
with severe convection expected to develop by mid and late
afternoon from portions of E TX into SW AR/NW LA. Very large
hail, damaging winds, and isolated strong tornadoes are all
possible, with the various guidance suggesting that the convection
will train NE repeatedly over the same areas from far NW LA along
the AR border into Srn AR late this afternoon through the
evening. In fact, the various runs of the HRRR suggest that
locally higher QPF amounts of 3-6 inches are possible across this
area, before diminishing from S to N by mid to late evening as the
greater forcing aloft begins to shift off to the NE.

For this reason, have expanded the Flood Watch for the remainder
of SW AR, and moved the start time to 00Z Thursday to accommodate
the potential earlier onset of flooding along/N of the LA border.
As the deep convection diminishes this evening, the Srly LLJ will
act to increase frontal convergence such that additional
convection should develop along and N of the bndry, aided by
additional large scale forcing that will eject NE across the Srn
Plains overnight ahead of the trough. The various short term
guidance suggests that the sfc front may drift back NNW from the
Red River Valley NE into the Nrn sections of SW into Cntrl AR
Thursday afternoon, but should be close enough to focus a
continued heavy rainfall/flood threat across the Flood Watch area.
General agreement amongst the progs suggest that another
perturbation aloft will eject NE in VC of the front Thursday
afternoon, which would focus at least scattered severe convection
near and SE of the front over the region, with the continued
threat of damaging winds and large hail given the persistent
unstable and sheared air mass in place.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The stationary front should linger over the NW sections of the
region Thursday night before possibly retrograding back NW late,
focusing more concentrated convection from areas of N TX across
Cntrl/Ern OK and NW AR Friday morning. This convection should be
forced ESE into the region Friday afternoon during peak heating,
where instability will again be maximized. Thus, a continued
threat for severe convection and heavy rainfall will persist
especially over the NW half of the area, with additional deep
convection developing farther W across much of TX as forcing aloft
increases ahead of the Desert SW longwave trough that will begin
to drift E into the Srn Rockies. This in turn will reinforce the
sfc front back SE as a cold front through the region Saturday as a
piece of longwave trough becomes absorbed into deep troughing
aloft that will dig SE through the Midwest/Great Lakes region.
Thus, the threat for heavy rainfall will increase across the
region, with the potential for the existing Flood Watch to be
expanded farther S across E TX and possibly portions of N LA,
pending on how rainfall totals the next couple of days evolve over
these areas. Severe convection also remains on the table Saturday
as the air mass ahead of the developing MCS destabilizes with
diurnal heating, with the severe/heavy rainfall and flood threats
ending from W to E Saturday night.

Much cooler and drier air will spill SE in wake of the cold fropa
Saturday night, with much below normal temps expected Sunday and
to start the new work week. Some patchy frost can`t be ruled out
Monday morning across SE OK/adjacent SW AR as sfc ridging settles
over the region, although a slow warming trend will commence by
Tuesday with the return of S winds. This may be short-lived though
as a reinforcing cold front is progged to move through the area by
midweek with a shortwave trough passage in the NW flow. However,
little time for low level moisture return is expected which should
preclude mention of pops attm.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, MVFR cigs persist along with gusty
S/SE winds 10-20G30KT as low pressure pushes out into plains.
Showers and thunderstorms lining up with VFR cigs mixing in the
early aftn, slowly moving eastward affecting many terminals until
just after sunset. A stationary corridor of convection may be
ongoing in our area, but slowly lifting back north late Thursday
as another low and the upper trough focus the SW flow over the
ArkLaTex again for Fri/Sat, until fropa early Saturday evening.
/24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening for
the potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  87  72  88  72 /  40  40  40  30
DEQ  77  61  73  63 /  80  80 100  90
TXK  82  67  80  69 /  80  70  90  80
ELD  85  68  83  70 /  80  80  80  60
TYR  81  70  84  71 /  60  30  60  60
GGG  82  71  84  71 /  60  50  60  60
LFK  86  72  87  72 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for OKZ077.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
     for TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24