Kenner, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

263
FXUS64 KLIX 101139
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Upper trough over the Great Lakes with the trough axis southward
to near Pensacola early this morning with upper ridging over the
Intermountain West. Main cluster of evening thunderstorms is off
to our east, with a smaller cluster well to the north over NE
Mississippi, and the next large cluster over west Texas. A very
warm and moist airmass (00z LIX precipitable water 2.07 inches)
remained over the area with early morning temperatures ranging
from the mid 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the 70s.

Main forecast issue will continue to be the threat for storms and
excessive rainfall. The evening LIX sounding essentially served
as an example of the near storm environment for the convection
that dumped over 3 inches of rain at Gulfport later in the
evening. Forecast soundings for midday today aren`t quite that
moist, with precipitable water values more commonly in the 1.6 to
1.8 range. There`s not really a well defined synoptic scale
forcing mechanism apparent during the day, so convection is more
likely to initiate due to differential heating around surface
boundaries. Instantaneous areal coverage may never exceed 30 or 40
percent today, but over the 12 hour period, 60 to 70 percent
doesn`t appear to be unreasonable.

Shortwave ridging attempts to build over the lower Mississippi
River Valley on Wednesday, but we never really dry out, so it will
be another days of scattered showers and storms. If anything,
moisture levels may be a bit higher tomorrow, so we cannot really
back off of the high probabilities for the 12 hour period.

Temperatures the next couple days aren`t really going to change
much from yesterday, with highs upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight
lows likely to remain in the mid and upper 70s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Upper troughing becomes more fully established across Texas on
Thursday, while the Bermuda high has a westward extension into the
eastern Gulf. In actuality, it is more of a weakness between
ridges to our east and west than a trough as such. But it will
serve as a focus for moisture just to our west. We will not see an
actual passage of the trough locally, as it will remain just to
our west until it lifts northeastward late in the weekend. Thus,
we are likely to see development of scattered showers and storms
pretty much every day through the weekend. Most of the
precipitation will occur during the late morning and afternoon
hours, with very little to differentiate one day from another.
This will be true of not only rain chances, but of temperatures as
well. I don`t see any day out of the next 7 that we could
confidently say is going to remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

IFR ceilings at KMCB this morning, and KHUM had brief IFR
conditions, with remaining terminals at VFR at forecast issuance
time. Likely to be at least an hour or two of MVFR ceilings as
cumulus field develops before cloud bases lift to near or above
FL030. While SHRA/TSRA cannot be precluded at any time today, most
favored time will be early afternoon into early evening. Areal
coverage probably will not be much more than 30 percent or so at
any one time, and will use PROB30 in terminals. Amendments will be
used if more confidence in timing/location becomes apparent. Most
or all convection should dissipate by 02z, if not sooner. Low
ceilings will again be possible at KMCB before sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

The main concerns for marine operators will be the daily/nightly
threat for thunderstorms to produce locally higher winds and/or
seas. Do not see any prolonged period over the next 5 to 7 days
where thunderstorms will not be a threat. At this time, we do not
anticipate the need for Small Craft Advisories or Exercise Caution
headlines for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  70  88  71 /  50  10  50  10
BTR  90  72  91  73 /  70  20  70  20
ASD  90  72  90  73 /  70  30  70  20
MSY  90  77  90  77 /  80  30  80  20
GPT  88  74  88  75 /  80  40  60  30
PQL  89  72  89  73 /  70  40  60  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW