Kenner, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS64 KLIX 160443
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1143 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1058 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will begin
  returning Sunday, mainly for areas west of the I-59 corridor. A
  few storms may be locally strong.

- Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through
  the middle of next week.

- Monitoring greater coverage in shower/storm chances late week
  as a front approaches the local area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Starting off with tonight, GOES-16 Infrared satellite imagery
continues to illustrate mid to upper-level cloud cover advecting
from the west in response to a subtle embedded shortwave/weakness
aloft and attendant weak PVA. This will likely provide mostly
cloudy skies areawide Saturday morning but largely quiet overall.
Few key items to identify, interestingly looking at GOES-16
derived PW and 03Z RAP trends identify a slug of drier air in the
central/northern Gulf, rotating northwest around the periphery of
surface high pressure anchored off the south mid-atlantic
coastline. HRRR proximity soundings for today illustrates this
dry layer to be below the H5-H3 moist layer associated with the
aforementioned trough, providing a very strong, low-level
subsidence inversion. This could help provide a bit stronger
mixing today, making it feel a tad drier today compared to
yesterday with dewpoints potentially mixing down into the low/mid
60`s and some upper 50`s. Highs averaging around to a couple of
degrees "cooler" than yesterday falls in line with NBM
verification/ensemble trends with little adjustment needed for
today. Looks like some of these upper-level clouds will be able to
clear out going into the later afternoon/evening, but likely will
be replaced/followed by a low-level Cu field as we warm up and
provide a small slither of positive buoyancy between the LCL and
bottom of the strong inversion aloft. Overall, not a bad day!

Calm tonight, then going into Sunday, we start to really see
pooling of very deep Gulf moisture over the NW Gulf, funneling
north given increasing low-level/850mb flow accelerating across
the central US. The state of the troposphere definitely takes on a
bit of a transformation given this influx of deep, rich Gulf air
in place by 1) Lifting/shrinking the inversion that will settle in
today up to H7-H6 and 2) Revealing a distinct moist-adiabatic
profile. Regardless, we`ll see good coverage of low-level Cu
during the day, with temperatures warming into the mid 80`s. HRRR
sfc wind fields reveal curved/confluent onshore SE flow from W/E
which almost always nails the best confluence to be a skewed
lake/seabreeze from Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas, to the northwest
to near BTR and SW MS, basically following along/near the MS
river where this will likely be a zone of maximized lift needed to
get scattered showers/storms going. H5 temperatures around -11C
and hail growth CAPE nearing 900J/kg will support a few stronger
storms where updrafts are forced by this skewed seabreeze boundary
and any other storm outflow boundary interactions to produce a
localized gusty wind/hail threat in this region. So overall, might
need to monitor for a few strong storms along/west of I-55 mainly
across the Atchafalaya Basin to SW MS Sunday afternoon/evening,
with all activity coming to an end shortly around/after sunset as
we lose the supportive diurnal surface heating. KLG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

South to southeasterly winds will generally prevail through mid next
week, bringing plenty of moisture inland along with summer-like
diurnally driven showers and storms. Some weak disturbances
passing through might edge the chances of storms upward especially
in the northern half of the CWA. High temperatures will remain in
the mid to upper 80s during this period with the only limited
chances of relief if a place gets a bunch of rain. BL

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Expect primarily VFR conditions for all area terminals through the
TAF cycle. Will monitor for some patchy FG possible across MCB,
but impacts appear limited at this time. Otherwise, primarily
FEW/BKN150-200 in the morning/mid afternoon hours, with SE winds
bearing 150-170 around 6-10kts in the afternoon hours, becoming
calm after sunset. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

High pressure anchored to the east offshore the mid-Atlantic states
will continue to provide onshore SE flow this weekend into next
week. Moisture steadily increasing will begin to provide a few
scattered shower chances mainly next week, with best chances mainly
late-week as a front approaches the northern Gulf coast. Waves/seas
do steadily increase early next week given ongoing SE fetch reaching
3-5ft for outer Gulf waters (primarily west of the MS delta) to 2-
3ft for nearshore waters, but winds back down some mid/late week
reducing wave/seas. KLG

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...KLG
MARINE...KLG