Harvey, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

284
FXUS64 KLIX 130841
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
341 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Deep moisture and plenty of CAPE(4k+J) will continue to help things
get going each day. This is very diurnally driven but there is some
upper level dynamic weak suppport from an upper low to the north
trailing a braod trough axis through west/central LA and east TX.
The main source of getting things going is heating durin the day.
The other source of heating is being observed this morning as well,
SST matching or very close to convective temps. This also means that
PW values are rising a well. This all makes sense as the area moves
under a souterly flow regime instead of a NW or west flow. The
storms with this type of flow are mainly heavy rainfall makers. This
does not mean there can be no severe storms but they wouldn`t be the
same in number as NW flow. The strongest storms usually develop
during the hottest part of the day in this flow instead of any given
time with NW flow. The rain chances will be higher than normal for
this time of year as this general troughing remains. But eventhough
numbers are around 70%, not all locations will get rain. One can
look at probabilities in several different ways but two ways are 70%
chance of measuring or a 30% of not measuring. Training could be an
issue as well which could cause some temporary localized flooding
issues.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The daily sh/ts coverage looks to remain well into the extended with
some days having higher chances that others. Monday is one of those
higher prob days as we will become the battle ground for southerly
flow environment and NW flow moving systems into the area with the
deep moisture availability. Basically, we are in a slightly higher
than normal precip summer regime. And any given day can give an
isolated heavy rain and/or severe storm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Cigs will cover most terminals today and could be in MVFR range for
BTR and MCB. But even these two sites will join all others with VFR
cigs by mid to late morning. Most areas will remain in VFR even
overnight tonight with the exception of MCB once again possibly
seeing MVFR cigs overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Southerly winds at 15kt or less is expected throughout this fcast.
We are in a very typical summer pattern with respect to the northern
gulf waters. There is a good chance of sh/ts each day and night.
Some of these could become strong causing winds to shift and rise
abruptly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  72  90  73 /  70  30  70  30
BTR  89  75  92  75 /  80  30  80  20
ASD  89  75  92  74 /  70  20  70  20
MSY  91  78  92  78 /  80  20  80  20
GPT  88  77  90  77 /  60  20  70  30
PQL  88  75  90  74 /  60  20  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE