Hammond, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

096
FXUS64 KLIX 121137
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
637 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Upper trough over central Texas early this morning, with ridging
to the east off the Florida coast, and to the west from Baja
California to Colorado. Large area of showers and thunderstorms
over Texas early this morning, but only very isolated showers over
the local coastal waters at this time. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT
were generally in the 70s, with dew points from the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

Upper trough will progress somewhat eastward over the next 36
hours, extending from Missouri to western Louisiana by tomorrow
evening. Precipitable water values are expected to generally
remain between the 75th and 95th percentile climatologically over
the next couple days. Any large scale forcing is expected to
remain to the west of the local area today, but differential
heating and small scale boundaries should be sufficient to aid the
development of isolated to scattered convection today, primarily
during the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings don`t look quite as
potent regarding severe weather today as compared to the last few
days, but threat is not zero. A shortwave wrapping around the base
of the trough on Friday may provide a little more focused lift
across the northwest quarter to half of the area with somewhat
higher PoPs in those areas. The overall heavy rainfall threat is
marginal at best, but with the high precipitable water values, any
storm could be a rather efficient rain producer, at least briefly.
If that occurs over an urban area, it could cause brief issues.

High temperatures the next couple days should top out around 90,
but if storms are a bit slower to develop this afternoon, a few
sites reaching 93 or 94 isn`t out of the question.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The base of the upper trough axis will pass across the area on
Saturday with another round of showers and storms expected. Beyond
Saturday, the local area will remain in a relative weakness
between mid-level ridging to our east and west. Forecast soundings
keep the water content above normal climatologically for Saturday
and Sunday before drying things out slightly on Monday. Upper
ridging tries to build into the area by the middle of next week,
hopefully allowing the airmass to dry out a bit. Have backed down
the NBM PoPs a bit during the afternoon hours, as it`s shown a
subjectively wet bias recently. Still a bit above the GFS and
ECMWF PoP values in most cases though. The weekend won`t be a
complete washout, with a fair amount of dry hours, but outdoor
plans for the weekend should consider the potential for weather
interruptions.

Until the airmass dries out a bit, limiting areal coverage of
clouds and precipitation, straying very far from climo is likely a
losing proposition. Once the ridge starts building across the area
at the middle of next week, high temperatures should trend up a
bit, with middle 90s a reasonable expectation for portions of the
area at the end of next week. This is supported by the CPC
outlooks of 50 to 70 percent chance of above normal temperatures
in the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

MVFR ceiling at KBTR at forecast issuance, with remaining forecast
terminals at VFR. Expect cumulus field to develop by mid-morning,
with main question being timing and location of thunderstorm
development today. Any synoptically forced convection should be
limited to the KMCB and KBTR terminals, which are closer to the
trough over Texas. Elsewhere, any development is likely to be on
remnant boundaries or lake or sea breeze boundaries. Will use
TEMPO at KMCB and PROB30 elsewhere. Main timing would be from mid
afternoon to early evening. Could see IFR ceilings at KMCB toward
sunrise Friday, but confidence is lower on that than the previous
few mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Winds will remain light through much of the forecast. Just the
typical nocturnal jet east of the MS river delta where winds may
be about 2-3 kts higher overnight. Main concern for marine
operations will be the potential for thunderstorms to produced
localized hazardous conditions. That will be the case each
day/night through the forecast period. Do not anticipate a need
for advisories or Exercise Caution headlines at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  73  89  73 /  70  30  80  20
BTR  91  75  90  75 /  70  30  80  20
ASD  90  75  90  75 /  50  20  80  20
MSY  91  78  91  78 /  60  20  80  20
GPT  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  80  30
PQL  89  75  88  75 /  50  30  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW