Alexandria, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

887
FXUS64 KLCH 112337
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
637 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms and excessive
  rainfall are outlined across the forecast today

- We get a little break from the heat this week with several days
  of rain cooled air and cloud cover.

- High rain chances will persist through the week and into this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A partially broken line of storms is moving across SETX this
afternoon with a few showers and storms ahead of the line with light
to moderate showers behind it. Some of this activity has caused
localized street flooding and small hail per received reports. The
line will continue to break up as it progresses eastward, however
the threat of flash flooding, hail, and damaging winds will
continue until it passes.

An upper cutoff low has established itself over the heart of TX,
however it will slowly drift off, centering itself over MO by the
end of the work week. Even after it moves off, we will still have
a weakness aloft over the Gulf Coast. Along with this, a
stationary boundary sits across TX, stretching to the East Coast.
Thanks to persistent southerly flow and an already established
moist airmass, we will not be lacking of moisture. Our 18Z UA
(@1.96") and model derived PWATs are generally at or above the
90th percentile for early / mid June.

Unfortunately this will spell more days of rain for the area,
however the silver lining will temperatures barely reaching above
climatological normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The unsettled pattern established during the short term will persist
through the extended period thanks to the weakness aloft remaining
in place over the weekend. By the work week, we might see PoPs
drop as an upper ridge over MX slowly moves eastward and another
upper ridge over the Atlantic expands over the Gulf. This could
allow for slightly higher temperatures in the early to mid next
week time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
Acadiana terminals through the next couple of hours. All
convection should taper off rather quickly after sunset, with VFR
conditions prevailing overnight areawide. Only exception will be
where areas of patchy fog may develop. Guidance only wants to
bring fog into LCH and AEX, and this may be a bit overdone. Will
update as needed with the next package. Otherwise, VFR conditions
continue into tomorrow morning, before our next round of
convection arrives. A line of strong storms will move west to east
across the region, accompanied by gusty winds, torrential
rainfall leading to reductions in VIS, low CIGs, and frequent
lightning. Timed this line out with the inclusion of prob30 groups
for now, since its toward the end of the current forecast period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will
persist through this week. Elevated thunderstorm chances will
linger through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause
locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  88  72  91 /  50  70  20  70
LCH  75  88  77  90 /  50  60  30  60
LFT  75  89  75  90 /  40  60  20  80
BPT  76  88  77  90 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17