Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

515
FXUS63 KJKL 232350 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
650 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend,
  with colder weather expected to arrive early next week.

- Periodic rain chances will occur through much of the holiday
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows a weak front lying west to east over
northern parts of Kentucky. This boundary will gradually settle
south with time, tonight, likely being the reason for the
development of spotty light rain. Currently, temperatures are
fairly uniform in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area.
Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints range
from the lower 50s in the west to the low and mid 40s in the east.
Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and
trends for the T/Td grids. Did also touch up the PoPs and sky
grids per the current CAMs consensus through the night. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025

The latest surface analysis indicates that stationary frontogenesis
has occurred across the Ohio Valley. Further north, a surface wave
is moving across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, with a cold front
extending southwestward through the Central Plains. Additionally,
surface cyclogenesis has taken place on the trailing western edge of
the stationary boundary over central Oklahoma. Locally, the area
remains just south of the stationary front; however, low-level
moisture advection and brisk low-level winds are maintaining
widespread cloud cover and occasional gusts.

Through the remainder of the day, low-level moisture transport will
continue. As winds shift to the northwest around the 850mb ridge,
this moisture feed will eventually be pinched off. However, given
the proximity of the stationary boundary and the approaching cold
front from the north, scattered showers are expected from this
afternoon through the early overnight hours. PoPs remain limited to
30 to 40 percent due to a lack of deep-layer moisture. Highs today
will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Increasing shower
activity is forecast this evening, primarily for locations south of
the Mountain Parkway. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s
in the north to the lower 50s near the Tennessee state line. Once
showers dissipate, lingering boundary layer moisture may produce
patchy fog; however, persistent cloud cover suggests that low
stratus is more likely than widespread ground fog.

Wednesday is forecast to be mostly dry for the first half of the
day. A surface low emerging from the Plains is expected to lift the
wavering stationary boundary northward as a warm front late
Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will substantially increase
PoPs late Christmas Eve, with rain persisting into Christmas
morning. Wednesday temperatures will range from the mid 50s across
the north to the mid 60s within the Cumberland Basin.

The period will be characterized by a stationary boundary
oscillating near the Ohio River. As upper-level and surface
perturbations track along this baroclinic zone, intermittent periods
of showers are likely. Temperatures are expected to remain well
above seasonal averages through the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025

The long-term period opens Thursday morning with anomalously strong
500 hPa ridging extending from the Gulf of America northward into
Central Canada. A pronounced low/trough is noted upstream along the
West Coast. At the surface, a weak low pressure will be passing through
the Mid-Ohio Valley with wavering frontal boundary extending
westward to another low in the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity.

The 500 hPa ridging over the nation will gradually erode as a stream
of energy ejects out of the West Coast trough on Thursday and
Friday. During this time, a more significant area of energy will
support the wave of low pressure tracking from Kansas/Oklahoma to
eastern Ohio by Friday evening, pulling the wavering boundary back
north as a warm front. The boundary will sag back south behind
the low on Friday night. This nearby boundary will keep the
intermittent threat of showers (chance to categorical) over the
JKL CWA. Brief height rises return for Saturday leading to drier
conditions before a much stronger trough digs southeast from
Western Canada. This will generate a potent low pressure system
lifting from the Northern Plains into Eastern Canada and sweeping
a potent cold front across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Behind that
front, a strong but cold surface high pressure settles south from
the Canadian Prairies to the Lower Mississippi Valley. At 850 hPa,
temperatures could fall to between -10 and -15C across the
forecast area -- more than cold enough for snow. However, at this
early juncture, the deterministic ECMWF/GFS show the 925-850 mb
flow remaining to westerly enough to keep the substantial moisture
from the Great Lakes northeast of the JKL CWA.

In sensible weather terms, look for an unseasonably warm temperatures
to persist through the upcoming weekend before turning sharply
colder early next week. Daily high temperatures are expected to
range mainly in the 60s from Thursday through Sunday, though could
approach 70 in the warmest valleys (primarily on Friday and
Saturday afternoons). Nighttime lows will run mostly in the 50s.
Much colder weather arrives Sunday night behind the cold front
with temperatures tumbling into the 20s. Thermometers are forecast
to struggle to reach the freezing mark on Monday and Tuesday.
Rain showers are expected at times from Thursday through Friday
night but overall amounts should be light. Saturday is dry for the
most part before showers return on Sunday, mixing with or ending
as a little light snow shower/flurry activity Sunday night/early
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025

MVFR conditions are prevailing across the majority of the TAF
sites with low VFR for JKL and SJS at issuance. Expect all sites
to drop into MVFR this evening and then lower to IFR towards
dawn. Rain will become increasingly likely overnight, for a time,
before tapering off though fog lingers into dawn. IFR CIGS/VSBY
can be expected to take hold mainly after 07Z continuing through
roughly 14Z before slow improvement to MVFR is anticipated.
Southwest to westerly winds of 5 to 10 kts will taper off to light
and variable this evening - continuing that way through the night
and into the day, Wednesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF