Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS63 KJKL 230425 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1125 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Accumulating snow/snow showers are expected across much of
   Eastern Kentucky through Monday, especially east of I-75.

-  Some of the stronger snow showers may produce locally higher
   accumulation rates, wind gusts up to 30 mph, and sudden
   visibility reductions.

-  Much colder air lingers through Monday night, but a mid-week
   warming trend is still on track.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026

The snow shower intensities north of the Mountain Parkway have
largely decreased over the last hour or two while multiple bands
of snow showers are occurring near and south of KY 80/Hal Rogers
Parkway in southeastern KY within the Winter Weather Advisory
area. At times, the snow showers in the southwest portion of the
CWA have been more intense than it would appear from radar as a
good portion of the snow shower is below the radar beam. Some
accumulation of snow was noted on webcams in Somerset on the
ground and even a bit on the roadway for a time in the downtown
area and there is dusting/coating on the ground at the London
Corbin airport. Some recent KYTC webcam imagery show some snow on
the road near the Wolfe/Powell county line along the Mtn Parkway
and there has been snow on the roads in other KYTC imagery within
the Winter Weather Advisory area including recently on US 119 on
top of Pine Mtn south of Whitesburg.

Instances of accidents due to some ice or snow accumulation on
roads have been reported mainly earlier in the evening including
near Corbin on I-75 and a few hours ago on KY 80 just east of
Hazard. In light of this and temperatures in the low to mid 20s
and ongoing snow showers in the south and more anticipated/potentially
renewed activity as the next vort max evident to the north over
OH rotates toward NE KY and WV we have enhanced wording in call to
actions in the SPS and WSW products and also made an additional
social media post highlighting the potential for icy roads and the
need to allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination due
to dramatically different road conditions over short distances due
to snow shower activity.

Grids have been refreshed based on recent observations and radar
trends.

UPDATE Issued at 825 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026

Hourly grids were updated to hold onto a bit higher pops over the
next couple of hours from around the Mtn Parkway south based on
recent radar trends. Also, temperatures were running a bit colder
than forecast, particularly on ridgetops and in the higher terrain
near the VA border especially. Temperature trends for the
overnight were updated based on 925 and 850 mb trends for the
highest elevations, with remaining hourly temperatures trended
toward CONSShort in the cold advection regime. Some of the snow
showers have been leading to slick or snow covered roadways. A
report of several accident on KY 80 generally east of KY 15 was
received over the past hours. As temperatures drop, any remaining
moisture on roadways will likely freeze in untreated areas,
especially if snow is falling hard enough to accumulate on top of
that. A bit of a late evening to early overnight lull in snow
shower activity is still expected, but northern and eastern
locations are still expected to experience an uptick in activity
in the overnight hours to around dawn timeframe, lingering into
early on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 359 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026

Regional radar shows widespread snow showers across eastern Kentucky
this mid-afternoon, with temperatures well below normal for late
February, ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. After a damp and
mild week, this return to wintry weather is driven by a deep
upper-level trough with an axis extending from eastern Canada to
the Southeast. This trough supports a developing blizzard along
the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a modified polar air mass wraps
around its western flank, riding into the Central and Southern
Appalachians on northwest upslope flow. Unlike our typical
post-frontal cold air advection regimes, this air mass is quite
moist, remaining nearly saturated to 700 hPa. Courtesy of ongoing
850 hPa cold air advection and diurnal heating, steepening lapse
rates have also transitioned the initial stratiform upslope snow
this morning into cellular, convective snow showers this afternoon.

Cellular snow showers will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon northeast of Lake Cumberland. Brief squalliness is
possible within the most intense activity; however, despite RAP
Snow Squall Parameter values remaining elevated for a few more
hours northeast of US-421, a forcing mechanism for organized
squalls is lacking. Heavier snow showers should wane after sunset,
but an upstream 500 hPa vort max (currently over the Southern
shore of Lake Michigan) approaches this evening, sustaining snow
showers--most persistently within the ongoing Winter Weather
Advisory area. Recent guidance, particularly the RAP/HRRR, depicts
a low-level moisture plume off Lake Michigan enhancing snow
shower chances west of I-75 tonight. Consequently, the Special
Weather Statement (SPS) was expanded to cover the remainder of the
JKL CWA. Accumulations have primarily been confined to grassy and
elevated surfaces thus far, but this will change after sunset as
air temperatures drop into the lower 20s, wicking away lingering
ground warmth. The snow shower threat continues Monday, with
diurnal destabilization bringing the possibility of a few squalls
once again. Total snow accumulations through Monday will range
from 1 to 3 inches across the advisory area, with localized
amounts near or exceeding half a foot atop Big Black Mountain.
Outside the advisory area, expect mainly a dusting up to 1 inch,
with locally higher amounts where snow showers persist. With high
SLRs (15:1 to 20:1), the snowfall should be light and fluffy.
Leftover flurries and snow showers will dissipate Monday night as
low-level CAA ceases.

In sensible weather terms, expect snow showers--some briefly heavy
this evening--to gradually diminish across most of the area late
tonight, though remaining persistent within the Advisory. It will
be colder, with lows in the lower to middle 20s. Monday brings a
renewed increase in snow shower coverage and intensity toward
midday, before gradually diminishing late. Temperatures remain
diurnally limited due to cloud cover, peaking in the lower to
middle 30s Monday afternoon before dipping into the upper teens
and lower 20s Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 522 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

The long term forecast period continues to be defined by a general
warming trend and the approach of two mid-week systems. While the
most recent runs of the deterministic forecast guidance models have
come in a little bit below the blended NBM baseline, temperatures
are still expected to return to near- or just-above-normal readings
by mid-week. This relative warmth bolsters confidence that all
precipitation associated with the two aforementioned systems will
fall in the form of rain, although we will have to closely monitor
the potential for locally heavy rainfall with the second one. The
synoptic pattern remains progressive headed into next weekend, but
model spread significantly increases in the latter stages of the
period. This reduces confidence in sensible weather specifics, but
above-normal temperatures are currently forecast for next weekend.

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures climb into the lower
half of the 40s on Tuesday afternoon. As midlevel ridging briefly
builds into the region, the corresponding surface high will shift
into the Southeastern CONUS. This shift establishes a regime of
southwesterly surface flow here in Kentucky, and those winds are
forecast to strengthen overnight in response to a tightening
pressure gradient. This yields warm air advection, as does the
approximately 40 knot 925mb low level jet out of the southwest.
Further aloft, models resolve 50-60 knot 850mb winds, but these will
be more out of the west-southwest. In the mid and upper levels,
winds retain more of a northwesterly component on the backside of
the previous day`s mid/upper level trough. Altogether, this suggests
that the depth of the moisture return out ahead of Wednesday
morning`s clipper-type system will be limited. The best
precipitation chances accordingly remain displaced to the northeast
of the forecast area, but expect increased cloud cover and breezy
winds overnight. Such a set up will insulate overnight lows to above-
freezing values before a cold front associated with that system
pushes through on Wednesday morning.

That boundary looks rather weak, with only a subtle shift in winds
towards the west and little to no associated cold air advection
behind it. Shortwave ridging may briefly clear the clouds on
Wednesday afternoon, but the resultant increase in solar radiation
would allow afternoon highs to climb towards the 50s. Furthermore,
the progressive nature of the overarching synoptic pattern will
allow another troughing disturbance to approach from the west on
Wednesday evening. Models resolve this feature as much stronger and
better defined than its predecessor, and it has the potential to
produce greater sensible weather impacts as a result.

As leeward cyclogenesis takes place upstream on Wednesday night, the
previous day`s boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm
front. As surface winds back towards the south in response, models
generally resolve the return of 35-45 knot flow at 925 mb and 50-60
knot flow at 850mb out ahead of it on Thursday. This time, all of
this low level flow will be out of the southwest, and the deeper
nature of the parent trough means that the moisture return out ahead
of this second system is expected to be much more effective than the
first. Median PWAT values surge to around 1.00 inch in the latest
LREF Grand Ensemble data, and this is on the higher end of
climatological guidance. The mean moisture parameter data remains
lower then the median, suggesting that there could be a skew towards
lower values, but the signal for excessive rainfall does not look as
impressive as it was at this time yesterday. A Marginal (Level 1/5)
Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains in place for the entire forecast
area on Thursday, but the timing, track, and exact evolution of the
resultant surface low pressure system is currently uncertain. If a
more southeastern track comes to fruition, the better moisture
return regime could be confined to the south of the forecast area.
Recent ECMWF guidance has trended in this direction, and the
previous QPF signal in the EFI/SOT has become more muted. Cloud
cover and rain chances are still expected to increase overnight into
Thursday morning in response to this set up, then persist throughout
much of the day. The positive tilt of the parent trough, persistent
cloud cover, and temps in the 40s/50s will limit the amount of
available shear and instability, and thus the thunderstorm chances
with this system. However, some of the rain showers could still
contain heavier rainfall rates, especially immediately ahead of the
system`s cold front and in the southern half of the forecast area.
There, lift will be maximized, and there is a 30-50% chance of at
least 1 inch of rain across the forecast area by the time the FROPA
occurs.

Most models depict the return of postfrontal ridging on Friday into
Saturday, with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This allows the warming trend
to continue through the end of the long term forecast period, but
the forecast uncertainty compounds towards the very end of the
period. The standard deviation of the available ensemble-based MOS
temperature guidance spikes to between 5 and 7 next weekend, with
even greater numbers in the precipitation guidance. In the baseline
NBM guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids, this
corresponds with a 15 to 25 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentile temperature guidance and a prolonged period of slight
chance PoPs early next week. It is difficult to pinpoint specific
forecast details amidst that magnitude of model spread, so interests
with outdoor plans next weekend are encouraged to stay tuned to
future forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026

MVFR and low end VFR were commonplace TAF issuance time, with IFR
ceilings and or visibilities within heavier snow showers. Winds
were generally west to northwest at 7 to 13KT, with some gusts in
the 15 to 20KT range. Isolated to scattered snow showers remain
generally east of I-75 and to the south of I-75 with somewhat more
persistent snow showers or light snow in higher elevations
adjacent to the KY-VA border. These should gradually decrease in
coverage and intensity east of I-75 over the first 3 hours of the
period with loss of daytime heating. Some brief IFR reductions or
the lower end of the MVFR range may occur with snow showers during
the first 3 hours of the period and perhaps again with a potentially
renewed activity after the 06Z to 09Z timeframe as another disturbance
crosses the area, with this generally occurring from near KSYM to
KJKL to the VA border east to KSJS. Otherwise, MVFR or VFR should
generally prevail for the first 12 hours of the period, with MVFR
most common east of I-75 and within snow showers. Winds will
average from the west to northwest at 5 to 10KT with some gusts in
the 15 to 20KT range during the first 12 hours of the period and
then pick up to between 7KT and 13KT with gusts during the last 12
hours of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP