Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

916
FXUS63 KJKL 051723
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
123 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and drier air arrives and settle in through the first
  half of the week.

- Frost is possible each night from tonight through Tuesday night.
  A few of the normally colder and sheltered valley locations may
  experience a freeze Monday night and/or Tuesday night.

- Temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal during the
  second half of the week, with rain-free weather expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 116 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight with the anticipation
of widespread low temperatures in the 30s, with many valley
locations in the lower to mid 30s, which will be sufficient for
frost formation. Otherwise, minor edits were made to the hourly
temperature forecast and the Sky grids, but otherwise there are no
significant changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends. Hourly pops were in good alignment with obs and radar
trends and no changes were made at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Steadier showers/light rain lingers behind the frontal zone that
crossed eastern KY on Saturday evening and is nearing the crest
of the Appalachians as shortwave trough interacts with this
baroclinic zone. A beneficial rain is occurring across the region
considering the rainfall deficit over the past 4 to 6 weeks. At
the mid to upper levels, a ridge was centered in the vicinity of
Bermuda and extended north across parts of the western Atlantic
while an upper level ridge extended from the Southwest Conus to
the Pacific northwest to BC. Downstream and in between the mid to
upper level ridges was an upper trough extending from the Hudson
and James Bay regions across the Great Lakes to mid MS Valley
regions. Meanwhile, a ridge of sfc high pressure extended from
portions of the Rockies to the Central to Southern Plains.

The shortwave trough will move east of the area this morning with
the deeper moisture departing as well and the airmass will dry
out quite substantially today with the 1000-500 mb layer rh
progged to drop below 40 percent this afternoon/evening. PW
should drop to 0.3 inches or lower or below the 30th percentile
for this time of year by this evening per 00Z HREF, though not as
dry as the airmass that moved into the area a week ago. A second
shortwave trough should cross the area this evening though the
mean 500 mb trough should generally remain in place and become
more broad downstream of upper ridging that shifts east across
parts of the western Conus. A shortwave rotating through this
trough and into the Great Lakes will second a dry cold front into
the OH Valley and across the area for Monday. Relative humidities
should drop to 30 percent or lower for many areas on Monday
afternoon.

Clouds should decrease through the day as sfc high pressure
builds into the Commonwealth from the Plains and the drier airmass
arrives. This high noses into eastern KY tonight and the pressure
gradient also decreases through the night. The drier airmass will
allow for valleys to drop to near if not below the freezing mark
in some cases. Ridges may remain in the mid to upper 30s. Some
frost should form late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

The long term period is expected to begin with an upper trough
extending from eastern Canada across the Great Lakes and into the
eastern Conus while shortwave riding is progged from the Northern
Rockies into the Canadian Rockies with an upper low moving across
BC. Further west and southwest, a shortwave trough is expected to
be moving across the Four Corners to Baja region while a
shortwave ridge is progged west of the west coast of the Conus
with an other upper low further to the west in the Pacific. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is expected to centered over the
upstate NY to mid Atlantic states vicinity with a dry cold front
having dropped south of KY and extending into eastern CO and then
this baroclinic zone should extend north and northwest to MT and
then a sfc low in BC. South of the boundary a ridge of high
pressure is expected to extend from east of the outer Banks
across the Carolinas to TX while another sfc ridge is expected to
be centered from Manitoba to the Northern Plains/upper MS Valley.

From Monday night to Tuesday night, the upper trough axis should
shift east of the Commonwealth and Southern Appalachians to and
then off the eastern seaboard. A period of gradually rising 500
mb heights is expected across eastern KY. Further west the initial
Four Corners to Baja shortwave should progress east across the
Southern Plains to Arklatex region while the upper low initially
in BC is progged to move to near the Saskatchewan/Montana/ND
border should be preceded by shortwave ridging that moves across
the Northern Plains to upper MS Valley and nears the western Great
Lakes area. Further west, upper ridging is progged to build into
the Southwest Conus as the eastern Pacific upper low gradually
begins to meander east/southeast. Sfc high pressure will build
into the Great Lakes to OH Valley and Appalachians Monday night to
early Tuesday with the center of this high shifting into the
Northeast/Mid Atlantic by late Tuesday night. Further west, low
pressure should extend from Saskatchewan to the Dakotas at that
point.

This second high will reinforce the colder drier airmass across
the region and PW for Tuesday will drop into the 10th to 35th
percentile from northeast to southwest per 00Z LREF. This will
allow for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s in valleys and lower
lying locations to the mid to upper 30s for valleys on Monday
night and Tuesday night. This will be favorable for some frost
formation and freezing temperatures are possible both nights in
the normally colder locations. Widespread sub 25 min rh is also
expected for Tuesday afternoon and some locations should drop off
into the teens percent range on mainly north to northeasterly
flow.

Wednesday to Thursday night, the period should generally feature
500 mb height rises across eastern KY while models vary in how
quickly they move the upper low/trough east near the US/Canadian
border and into the Great Lakes region which results in some
variation with the associated frontal zone position to the north
and west of eastern KY. Nevertheless the region is likely to
remain well within the warm sector. Downslope low level southerly
winds will be favored with axis of the sfc ridge extending from
southeast of the Maritimes to the mid Atlantic states to southern
Appalachians. This return flow and the region being in the warm
sector will favor temperatures warming to about 5 degrees above
normal for Wednesday and to around 10 degrees above normal for
Thursday night. Dewpoints/low level moisture increase will be
slowed by the downslope component and low humidties should
continue for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, especially in the
more eastern/southeastern locations. Also, another moderate
ridge/valley temperature split or two may occur Wednesday and
Thursday nights as well. Some of the normally colder eastern
valley locations could reach the 30s for Wednesday night and
perhaps Thursday night.

Friday to Saturday, uncertainty is expected with the upper
pattern/heights in the Lower OH Valley. Upper ridging is
expected to be centered across central America and extend into
sections of the Gulf and southeast Conus with models also in
agreement that the upper low initially off the west coast of the
Conus meanders to near or into CA and the Southwest Conus. Weaker
disturbances could traverse the OH Valley though the
frontal/baroclinic zone should remain to the north. A shower could
affect the north Friday or Saturday afternoon if the boundary is
nearer to the OH River, but rain free weather is forecast at this
time. Temperatures moderate to around 15 degrees above normal
during this timeframe. Several locations should experience sub 30
percent min RH again on Friday afternoon as dewpoints continue to
only slowly creep up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

MVFR to low-VFR conditions continue to improve through the
afternoon as a low overcast lifts and scatters out behind a cold
front passage. Northwest to west winds at 5 to 12KT with gusts up
to about 20 kts are anticipated through this afternoon. However,
the pressure gradient relaxes toward 00Z and after, resulting in
slackening winds between 00Z and 06Z and light and variable winds
during the remainder of the overnight. An approaching dry cold
front will allow for winds to become more westerly toward the very
end of the TAF period, with sustained winds in the 5 to 12 kt
range and gusts of 12 to 20 kts, highest at northern sites such as
KIOB and KSYM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CMC