Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXUS63 KJKL 230009
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
709 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend, with
  colder weather expected to arrive early next week.

- Periodic rain chances will occur through much of the holiday
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

Forecast seems to be in relatively good shape right now. MVFR and
lower clouds are continuing to spread over much of eastern
Kentucky. Initial temperatures in the eastern valleys have started
to drop, but expect them to level out as clouds continue to move
in over the next few hours. Loaded in the latest observational
temperatures and tried to attenuate the falling temps into the
ongoing forecast for cloud cover and moderating temps overnight.
It remains breezy in the SW counties as of this update time, and
there is some possibility this can continue into the overnight,
especially with any showers that occur. Will continue to monitor
shower activity, and update timing/pop grids as needed over the
next few hours. All updates have been published and sent to
NDFD/web.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

West-northwesterly flow aloft will gradually become more
northwesterly by Tuesday night as upper ridging builds across the
south-central CONUS. This will result in a continuous warming trend
through the period, both for high and low temperatures.

Warm front continues to move northeast aloft over the area, but will
not completely bring the entire CWA under the warm sector at the
surface until Tuesday. Clouds will increase through tonight and
persist through Tuesday, with forecast soundings showing a saturated
layer beneath a strong subsidence inversion caused by the strong
upper ridging. This ridging will cap the saturated layer and keep
any rainfall fairly limited with regards to QPF, closer to drizzle
or brief periods of light rain showers. Warmth and moisture pools
ahead of an approaching frontal passage that will likely clear the
area to the south by, or toward the end, of the short-term period
Wednesday morning, bringing a temporary end to light rain/drizzle
chances.

With warm advection increasing through the period and moving over a
dry air mass in the lowest levels, expect a significant temperature
discrepancy for lows tonight, with the eastern sheltered valleys
falling into the 30s while 40s are more likely on ridgetops and west
of Interstate 75. As the entire area comes under the influence of
the warm sector Tuesday, highs should make the mid to upper 50s
northeast to lower 60s south and west, even with significant cloud
cover and light rain/drizzle. Lows Tuesday night will range from the
lower 40s north to lower 50s south, with cooler air moving south
into the area behind the weak cold frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

The first several days of the long term period will feature a
frontal boundary wavering back and forth over the region. This may
result in rain or drizzle at times, but with west to northwest
upper level flow and a lack of significant systems otherwise, any
precip should be relatively light. The frontal position will be a
key factor in temperatures. Latest model runs show it just to our
south at dawn on Wednesday, then progressing north and east
through the area as a warm front on Wednesday night, leaving us in
a mild air mass to start the day on Christmas. Models have now
trended cooler later on Christmas day in our northern counties as
the front drops back south as a cold front and then stalls over
KY. There is potential for a forecast temperature bust on
Christmas due to the exact position of the front being critical.
Regardless of how far south the front makes it, it is still
forecast to shift north and east as a warm front Christmas night
and Friday, putting us back into an unseasonably mild air mass as
we progress into the weekend.

Definitive change is still on course later in the weekend. Pattern
amplification is expected as an upper trough drops southeast over
the eastern CONUS early in the new week, with a closed low
developing and tracking somewhere through the region of the Great
Lakes, New England, and southeast Canada. This allows a substantial
cold front to pass through our area on Saturday night or Sunday
(there`s still timing uncertainty in models), with winter
temperatures arriving Sunday and carrying forward. At this time it
would appear that significant precipitation associated with the
front would be tapering off before the atmosphere becomes cold
enough to support snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 606 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

As strong southerly return flow continues to take hold this
evening, moisture has begun advecting across the region. Generally
low end VFR to MVFR clouds are taking hold across all the TAF
sites and will continue into the overnight and even into the day
tomorrow. In fact, some models are suggesting that CIGS will
continue to lower to below IFR before 0Z. Showers are
accompanying these clouds. A few showers are already popping up
across eastern KY, but the best chances for rain will arrive
overnight, generally around and just after 6Z. Chances will remain
into the morning hours, exiting by afternoon. Although models are
not showing it, these showers could lead to some visibility
restrictions at times. The winds are probably the biggest
uncertainty. Previous model runs showed winds calming at the
surface, while a strong llvl jet was in place just aloft -
resulting in some pretty good wind sheer through much of the night
and even into the morning hours, before mixing takes hold again.
However, the latest runs seem to favor a more wind hitting the
surface and less llvl wind shear environment. Stuck with the wind
sheer in the TAFs for now, but will continue to monitor this going
into the next TAF cycle.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW