Murray, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

320
FXUS63 KPAH 021154
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
654 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major severe weather outbreak is anticipated this afternoon
  and evening, possibly into the overnight; strong tornadoes,
  very large hail, and damaging winds are expected.

- Ahead of the storms, very strong south winds will gust 40-55
  mph at times today.

- Historically high forecast rainfall amounts of up to a foot
  will lead to significant and widespread flooding Wednesday
  through Sunday.

- Additional rounds of severe storms are possible Thursday and
  especially Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

SPC has upgraded a portion of the Quad State to a High Risk for
this afternoon and evening. The High Risk area roughly straddles
the Mississippi River from Cairo to Memphis. This includes
southeast Missouri to the southeast of a Poplar Bluff to Cape
Girardeau line, south of Highway 13 in southern Illinois, and
the Purchase and Lakes areas of west Kentucky. An extreme
parameter space (2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE and 250-450 m2s2
Effective SRH, and Effective Layer STP 4-6) is forecast
throughout the Quad State this afternoon and evening, but the
best instability and low-level shear will overlap in the High
Risk area.

A capping inversion is expected to overspread the region early
this morning, and that should keep things quiet over most of the
region for most of the day. Ahead of the cap this morning, a
few showers and thunderstorms will be possible prior to
daybreak. If a storm gets going, steep mid-level lapse rates
may support some hail development.

Rapid thunderstorm development is expected over southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois between 2 PM and 4 PM. The
development will then spread eastward to PAH and EVV by 7 PM and
through west Kentucky this evening. The coverage is unclear, but
there could be quite a bit of competition which could hinder
storm organization. However, the dominant cells will be
supercells, with the potential for very large hail, strong
long-track tornadoes (EF3+), and damaging winds. Individual
storms will rocket northeastward at 60-70 mph. The storms will
eventually organize into a line or series of line segments
which would bring damaging winds more to the forefront. The low-
level shear will support tornadoes even from a linear mode. The
severe threat should mostly be done by 06Z.

The 12Z NAM hinted at earlier development (around midday) over
the over the Ozark Foothills in southeast Missouri. It brings
a slug of very deep moisture (sfc-700mb) through this area
around 18Z, and it could bust through the cap. If so, the storms
would likely become severe with all forms of severe weather
possible. Behind that slug of deeper moisture, the moisture
depth will shrink and the cap will reasserts its control for a
few hours.

As the storms congeal over west Kentucky in the mid to late
evening, the line will become aligned with the upper flow, which
will allow the storms to linger over the southern Pennyrile and
drop a couple inches of rainfall. This will be the first round
of the prolonged heavy rainfall.

Most of the area will get a break from the rain late tonight
into Thursday morning. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to increase by Thursday afternoon in response to
low-level warm advection. The surface boundary is expected to
remain just south of the Quad State, so any severe threat
Thursday would most likely be from elevated hail storms.

There is a reasonable consensus amongst the 00Z guidance for a
significant round of heavy rainfall from Thursday afternoon
through Friday morning. Some locations could see 3-4" of
rainfall in this period, and that will likely lead to flash
flooding over much of the area. WPC has a High Risk of excessive
rainfall posted for Thursday/Thursday night from the Bootheel
through the Purchase and Lakes areas of west Kentucky.

The focus for heavy rainfall will shift north of the area Friday
afternoon and evening, as the upper trough draws the surface
boundary north of the Quad State. As the trough pushes eastward,
the worst of the heavy rainfall is expected from Friday night
through Saturday night. Several inches of additional rainfall is
expected, and this will create the most dangerous flash flooding
threat. Where the heaviest rains fall, locations that do not
normally flood, or that have never flooded before, could flood.
No changes are planned to the Flood Watch.

In addition, there will be another chance of severe storms
most likely Friday night and possibly into Saturday. Damaging
winds and a few tornadoes would be the primary concerns.

The HREF and ECENS continue to indicate a near certainty for
40+mph wind gusts ahead of the storms today. Those strong winds
will increase quickly this morning. No changes are planned to
the Wind Advisory, but we may be able to cancel it early this
evening.

The Quad State should begin to dry out from the west on Sunday.
Dry and cool conditions are forecast for the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

South winds will be sustained 20-25kts with gusts 35-45kts
through the day. MVFR ceilings will overspread the entire region
quickly this morning and then lift to VFR by midday. Severe
thunderstorms are expected to move quickly northeast across the
region generally in the 21Z-03Z time frame. Hail, 50+kt gusts,
and tornadoes will all be possible. MVFR ceilings will linger
for a few hours behind the storms, and may linger through the
night in the north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
     Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
     Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for INZ081-
     082-085>088.
     Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT /2 PM EDT/ this afternoon through
     Sunday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for KYZ001>022.
     Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday
     morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS