Glasgow, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

243
FXUS63 KLMK 150521
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
121 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
   weekend, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The
   potential for severe storms is low, but additional swaths of
   heavy rain would increase the risk for localized flash flooding.

*  Unsettled weather continues next week, with continued rounds of
   afternoon and evening showers and storms expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Numerous showers and storms from this afternoon have scattered out
leaving a few isolated showers. Current conditions will continue
into the first half of the night. In the early morning, the ceilings
will begin to drop and patchy, dense fog will likely develop over
the region. Have adjusted the grids for this fog development.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A deep but weakening area of low pressure is rotating east over the
Lower OH Valley this afternoon. Numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms have developed this afternoon as the humid low-level
airmass destabilizes slightly beneath the area of low pressure.
Stratus certainly limited sfc heating/destabilization to some degree
early in the day, but we are now actually seeing a few more peeks of
sunshine in between small downpours.

The severe weather threat this afternoon continues to look very low.
MLCAPE is modest (< 1000 J/kg) and distributed thinly through a deep
layer. Recent SDF ACARS profiles continue to show very poor lapse
rates throughout the column. Effective deep shear is also less than
20 kts. PW values are hovering around 1.9 inches, and the moisture-
rich environment remains conducive to heavy downpours. Expect brief
ponding of water and possibly some flooding this afternoon if
showers train over a localized area.

Precip coverage and intensity will wane with sunset. The weak low
will drift overhead tonight before continuing over eastern KY,
southern OH, and WV on Sunday. Upper sky cover should mostly clear
tonight, leaving us with weak low pressure in the region and light
winds. Widespread low stratus and some fog appears likely early
Sunday morning. The humid airmass will remain in place through the
remainder of the weekend, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

With rich moisture still in place (PW values 1.8-2.0 inches),
another round of diurnally-driven showers and isolated storms looks
likely on Sunday. Showers may be a bit more scattered in nature with
weak low pressure now just off to the east. But in general, will
ramp up to 30-60% PoPs during the afternoon and evening hours.
Though we start the day with low stratus, a few more breaks of sun
should allow temps to warm a few degrees warmer than today in most
spots. Look for afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Monday and Monday Night

For the start of the new week, strong upper level ridging will be
centered over the Desert Southwest and Mexico. Another upper level
shortwave trough is forecast to swing over the region in baggy W/NW
flow. With a moist and unstable airmass still in place and even a
weak remnant sfc boundary, another round of scattered to numerous
showers and storms is expected. Weak shear will limit convective
organization, so the severe weather risk is low. Thunderstorms will
produce lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Highs
should reach the low to mid 80s, with lows Monday night again in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday - Saturday...

From Tuesday through Thursday, the upper-level pattern across North
America should become fairly zonal. Multiple shortwave disturbances
are expected to quickly translate eastward within this zonal flow
pattern, bringing waves of greater precipitation coverage. A warm
and humid air mass will bring recurring chances for scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A slightly stronger
wave could bring us a higher chance for strong storms late Wednesday
into Thursday. CIPS analog-based severe guidance and CSU ML
probabilities both show an uptick in the chance for severe weather
during that time.

Beyond Thursday, medium range guidance still generally agrees on
amplifying ridging over much of the central and eastern CONUS. This
should help to suppress shower/thunderstorm chances Friday into next
weekend. It will also likely lead to warmer temperatures, with highs
well into the 80s and possibly low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A weakening low pressure system will continue to slowly move east
across the region through the day on Sunday, and an air mass with
rich moisture continues to remain over the area. With the low almost
overhead tonight, light winds will allow moisture to settle near the
surface, bringing a combination of low stratus and patchy fog. The
minimum in ceilings and visibility should be around sunrise, with
gradual improvement expected through the morning today. Prevailing
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening, though
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may bring brief reductions
to both categories. Winds through the period will be light, veering
from SW to NW as the low passes by.

Forecast confidence in ceilings and visibility is low-to-medium
through late morning, then medium this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...CSG