Elizabethtown, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

680
FXUS63 KLMK 011044
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
644 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening in
  far southern Kentucky.

* Mainly dry with warming temperatures Monday into Wednesday.

* Active weather to return Thursday and Friday with possible
  strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Deep low pressure is centered over the Northeast US and Canada early
this morning, with cyclonic NW flow aloft lingering over the Ohio
Valley. A mid-level shortwave trough will rotate through the flow
over the Ohio Valley today. At the surface, a cold front is sinking
slowly south through central KY this morning. The front will push
into southern KY by 12Z this morning before stalling near the KY/TN
border today. The boundary will finally sink south of the area
tonight.

Between 2-8 PM EDT today, weak convergence along the front and BL
destabilization may be sufficient for isolated showers/storms to
develop in far southern KY. Sfc moisture is modest, but relatively
cool temperatures in the mid-levels should yield up to 500-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE along the KY/TN border. Lapse rates still look pretty healthy
up through 3 km or so, but are quite poor above that. Effective
shear is also modest at 25-30 kts, so not expecting many robust
updrafts. There is a very low chance for a brief strong storm in far
southern KY before much of the precip slips south of the TN border.

Otherwise, much of southern IN and central KY will enjoy a nice day.
Expect a partly sunny/hazy sky with afternoon highs in the mid/upper
70s. Highs should top out near 80 degrees in the Bowling Green
region. High pressure builds over the region tonight. With light
winds and mostly clear conditions, temperatures will drop into the
40s/50s. Expect lows in the mid/upper 40s in the Bluegrass, with
low/mid 50s further south and west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Upper level ridging is forecast to amplify and build east over the
eastern CONUS Monday and Tuesday. Sfc high pressure initially over
the Ohio Valley early Monday will shift east to the North Carolina
coast on Tuesday. Fair weather and warming temperatures can be
expected, particularly Tuesday when highs should reach the mid/upper
80s. High on Monday will likely be in the upper 70s to lower 80s for
most. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the 50s.

By Wednesday, the mid/upper level ridge is likely to shift to the
East Coast as multiple shortwave disturbances rotate northeast from
the Plains across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Lower level SW
flow will advect richer moisture into the region ahead of a cold
front pushing through the Midwest. This front does still appear
likely to stall just northwest of the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night, but there is enough support to gradually begin to increase
PoPs from the northwest during this time. Much of Wednesday could
end up dry and hot for most of us, with highs in the mid/upper 80s.

Additional waves rotating northeast along the baroclinic zone should
help force the boundary through much of the Ohio Valley Thursday
into Friday. We will see much higher rain and thunderstorm chances
during this period, and perhaps at least one round of strong storms
and heavy rainfall. CIPS analog-based severe weather guidance and
the CSU ML severe weather probabilities highlight low-end severe
chances in our region late next week.

It is possible the front clears the area by Saturday, which would
result in a drier forecast. However, confidence is lower from
Saturday onward. Could easily see the front stalling/lingering in
the region, and we will continue to highlight a chance of showers
and storms into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

VFR conditions expected. SCT mid clouds will stream southeast
overhead this morning, followed by a SCT cu field over south-central
KY this afternoon. A few isolated SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out in
the vicinity of BWG along a stationary boundary, but confidence is
not high enough in coverage to include in the TAF. Winds will be
fairly light out of the N/NE through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW