Campbellsville, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

011
FXUS63 KLMK 102001
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
301 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Rain ends from west to east tonight.

*  Valley fog is expected to form late tonight. It`s possible the
   fog may become more widespread than currently forecast.

*  Mostly dry week ahead other than scattered showers Wednesday
   night. Temperatures slightly warmer than normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Showers in central Kentucky this evening will end from west to east
tonight as a cold front pushes them out of the area. 1pm-1am EST
rainfall amounts southeast of a Bowling Green - Lexington line
should generally be in the 0.25 to 0.50" range, though some locally
higher amounts will be possible in areas where heavier showers train
over the same spot. The last of the showers should be out of central
Kentucky by around 3am.

Skies will go mostly clear behind the departing showers. As the
skies clear and winds go light the question arises if there will be
fog formation. Most visibility guidance isn`t supporting much in the
way of fog at this time, and winds just off the surface do stay in
the 7-13kt range through the night. After chatting with neighbors,
will restrict fog to valleys for now, and will continue to monitor.
Still wouldn`t be surprised to see some shallow ground fog develop
in rural areas. At any rate there will at least be a heavy dew as
the mercury tumbles into the 40s in southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky...around 50 in southern Kentucky.

On Monday high pressure will build from the northern Plains into the
Mississippi Valley, bringing a much drier air mass into the region.
A weak surface trough in the afternoon and some 925-850mb moisture
may support scattered cloud development, but overall there should be
a good amount of sunshine. Winds will be light with afternoon
temperatures generally in the middle 60s...several degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Synopsis...Mid-level large-scale pattern will remain relatively
active as waves of Pacific energy track across the northern two-
thirds of the CONUS while a ridge of high pressure intermittently
expands from a broad blocking high extending over the Gulf of Mexico
and the Florida Peninsula. The first of these waves is going to
detach from an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska and quickly move
through the CONUS as it weakens slightly, causing rain chances to
increase Wednesday into Thursday here in the Ohio Valley. The second
wave will arrive late this weekend into early next week and could
potentially carry a stronger signal for heavy rainfall and storms,
but confidence is low at the moment given model variability.

Model Confidence/Evaluation...Forecast confidence during the
forecast period is medium, at best, due to timing and intensity
differences of both upper-level waves. Models have trended slower
with the mid-week wave and in response rain chances start later
compared to forecasts from 2 or 3 days ago. Also, an uptick in NBM
QPF associated with this wave is noted from the previous forecast
package as some guidance (UKMET/CMC/ECMWF dynamical and ML
solutions) is wetter than the GFS and GraphCast GFS. Higher
uncertainty exists for the late weekend wave passage as models
disagree on how the synoptic pattern evolves and where the moisture
comes from. In this regard, GFS depicts a stronger more amplified
wave with moisture influx from the western Gulf of Mexico while the
ECMWF is less amplified with the high over the Gulf of Mexico
blocking any northward moisture transport.

Tuesday - Wednesday...Mid-level ridge aloft and surface high
pressure over the Great Lakes will keep a dry and stable post-
frontal airmass over the Ohio Valley. The high pressure will push a
secondary (dry) cold front to the area lowering dew points to the
30s on Tuesday with slow recovery on Wednesday as winds veer to the
south ahead of the approaching mid-week shortwave and attendant cold
front. There might be an opportunity of river valley fog Tuesday
morning but more widespread coverage will be limited by light winds
and a somewhat mixed near-surface layer. As for temperatures, near
normal values are expected on Tuesday with an increasing trend on
Wednesday as south winds kick in warm air advection.

Wed Night - Thursday...Isentropic lifting ahead of the shortwave
trough will allow top-down saturation and possibly force some low-
topped showers before the bulk of rainfall moves over late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. As mentioned above and in the
previous forecast package, there is model disagreement on the total
precipitation expected during this time frame; however, it seems
possible average areal rainfall around 0.5 inch with localized
totals approaching 1.0 inch or more. Although minor ponding issues
might arise, widespread flooding is not anticipated. Based on the
lack of instability, timing of the frontal passage (instability
minimum), and strong near-surface inversion, chances of organized
severe weather are negligible. Will mention isolated lightning based
on decent mid-level lapse rates in the mixed-phase region shown in
GFS soundings, especially around 14/06Z. Conditions will gradually
improve on Thursday as winds turn to the northwest and dry air moves
across the area; nonetheless, low-level clouds might linger into the
afternoon.

Friday - Saturday...Another interval of quiet weather with ridging
aloft and surface high pressure traveling from the Mid Mississippi
to the Ohio Valley. Cool air advection will reduce temperatures to
near normal values and winds stay on the light side. There is
perhaps better confidence in a fog signal Friday, and to a lesser
extent Saturday morning, as surface high pressure moves overhead and
the boundary layer decouples to take advantage of the recently-
replenished soil moisture (based on Wed night - Thu morning rains).

Sunday - Next Week...Another chance of rain and isolated storms
appears possible, but details will have to wait for subsequent
forecasts given low confidence at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings in Kentucky this afternoon and early evening
- Showers briefly reducing visibility...especially at BWG this
afternoon. A few lightning strikes not out of the question in
Kentucky.
- Gusty winds this afternoon
- Fog early Monday morning?

Showers have decreased in coverage and intensity since this morning,
but additional shower development will continue through the
afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms possible. A band of sub-VFR
clouds will continue to be present coincident with the showers. A
cold front will sweep the clouds and showers out of the region
tonight from west to east. Clear skies and light winds suggest fog
formation behind the front, but at this time guidance suggests it
may be restricted to valley locations. This will need to be re-
evaluated in future TAF packages.

Confidence:

- High in the likelihood of showers and MVFR ceilings in Kentucky
this afternoon and evening, along with gusty winds.
- Low in whether or not fog will form at the TAF sites around dawn
Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...ALL
AVIATION...13