Burlington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

293
FXUS61 KILN 021941
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
341 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure brings the chance of severe storms and heavy
rain this evening into tonight. Additional waves of low pressure
will cause more rounds of storms with heavy rain Thursday night
through Sunday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Incredible temperature gradient exists across the local area this
afternoon with a warm front still lingering across the far north.
Temperatures along and north of the front are still in the mid 40s.
Looking across the south reveals temperatures in the lower 80s. Cloud
cover is rapidly moving across the area within very strong
southwesterly low-level flow. Even with the cloud cover, growing
instability of 1000-2000 J/kg is moving northeastward into the area
as dewpoint temperatures climb into the lower 60s. This antecedent
atmosphere sets the stage for a very active severe weather evening
and overnight as a cold front approaches the area. Details below...

Wind Advisory: Ongoing wind gusts have peaked around 45 to 55 mph.
These wind gusts become less frequent and decrease in magnitude into
the late afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching severe
weather. Strong southerly flow will continue to feed warmer air and
rich moisture northward into the evening hours.

Severe Weather information by timing:

Late afternoon & early evening(~5pm-8pm): While model soundings
originally showed a capping inversion remaining in place through the
afternoon, there has been noticeable weakness in the cap, with some
high- resolution CAMs indicating some convective initiation ahead of
the primary event. Recent output from the HRRR suggests at least some
potential in supercells a few hours ahead of the line, but current
thinking is that this is overdone. Some showers are beginning to form
in southern Indiana, but with the lack of stronger surface based
forcing, these likely remain elevated within a region of warm air
advection. A slight chance of thunderstorms continues to be messaged
for this period.

Evening(~8pm-1am): Confidence is much higher that as height falls
occur across Illinois later this afternoon and early evening, an
eruption of thunderstorms will form far to the west of the local
area. As these cells merge and upscale, a mostly organized QLCS
quickly shifts eastward through Indiana and into western Ohio between
9pm and midnight. Upon approach to the area, additional cells form
ahead of the line, providing at least some chance for supercell storm
structures before the QLCS merges with them. Large curved hodographs
support the potential for strong tornadoes, specifically across
portions of eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and the greater tri-state
area. Even if cell mergers occur, strong tornadoes will be possible.
In addition to the tornado threat, a well established QLCS will
provide widespread damaging wind gusts of 60 mph, but also the
potential for more localized 70 to 80 mph wind gusts. The hail threat
will be greatest with any supercell structures or within the deepest
cores in the QLCS.

Late evening into the overnight(~1am-6am): As the QLCS continues
eastward at a rapid pace (60-70 mph), ALL hazards continue to be
expected as the line reaches Columbus southward toward the Ohio
River. The supercell threat has likely decreased, but the atmosphere
remains very favorable for tornadoes, with mesovortex tornadoes
quickly forming along the line. 70+ mph wind gusts also remain
possible within localized areas of the line. Hail threat is lower,
but quarter sized hail is still a possibility in the strongest cores
within the line.

Eventually, the line shifts entirely east and south of the local area
leaving in its wake, stratiform rain showers. By sunrise, the cold
front will be moving across the area. The location of greatest PoPs
is positioned across the south with any remnant rain associated with
the convection lingering across central Kentucky. Otherwise, much of
the area is likely dry heading into the short term.

Flash flooding: While confidence in flash flooding is low, if the
evolution of the QLCS or the development of thunderstorms ahead of
the line provide an opportunity for training or repetitive
thunderstorms, flash flooding would have the chance of forming where
this occurs. Otherwise, expectations at that the line quickly moves
across the local area, limiting heavy rain and better chance of flash
flooding to central Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the cold front moves through the area Thursday morning, dry air
likely keeps most of the day on the drier side, but PoPs continue to
be mentioned for southern Ohio, northern Kentucky, and southeast
Indiana. With the remnant cold pool boundary likely south of the
area, destabilization and severe weather appears considerably lower
than previously anticipated. This is shows well through the Day 2 SPC
Severe Weather Outlook update earlier this afternoon which limits any
severe threat to the far south (northern Kentucky and southern
Ohio). Depending on the advancement of the convective outflow
overnight, these may be lowered even more.

In response to a shortwave moving northward through the Mississippi
Valley, deep moisture advection occurs Thursday afternoon into the
evening hours. PoPs return and expand across the whole area during
the evening and into the overnight. An additional 1-2 inches is
forecast with this period, with locally higher amounts possible in
convective downpours. Isolated flash flooding is possible, but the
main concern will be the increasing coverage of areal flooding and
rising creeks and rivers due to saturated ground. Most area rivers
will begin to respond to this period of rain as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The active pattern with widespread showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the weekend as moist southwest flow aloft continues
and several waves of low pressure move east along a quasi-stationary
boundary draped across the Ohio Valley region.

By Friday morning, the boundary should be right along the Ohio
River, but it is forecast to lift north as a warm front Friday
afternoon into Friday night as a somewhat stronger surface wave
develops back to our west. Depending on how far north the front makes
it, we may get into somewhat of a lull in pcpn heading into Friday
night. However, the boundary and pcpn will sag back down into our
area from the northwest through the day on Saturday with another wave
then riding east along the boundary Saturday night into Sunday,
bringing the last round of significant pcpn.

There will be at least a low end severe threat for Friday into
Friday evening, but this will be dependent on how far the front makes
it and the amount of surface based instability that is able to
develop. There could also be a lower end severe threat across our
southeast Saturday afternoon/evening, again dependent on the exact
placement of the boundary and the amount of instability present. But
all in all, the main threat through the weekend remains the potential
for flooding, given the multiple rounds of showers/storms and
periods of heavy rain.

The main axis of heaviest QPF totals still looks to nose up into the
Tri-State area, but our entire area will see more than enough
rainfall through the weekend to result in significant rises on area
creeks and streams, as well as river flooding.

A significant pattern change will develop through the later portions
of the long term period as a deep upper level trough settles in
across the Great Lakes region. This will lead to unseasonably cool
temperatures and some lower end chances for showers Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
First round of showers and thunderstorms have exited TAF locations.
For the remainder of the afternoon, strong southerly winds with
regular gusts between 30 and 40 knots are the main story.

Another round of storms, a few of which will likely become severe,
will approach in the 03-07Z time frame. Main concern here is with
damaging winds. Timing is fairly similar to previous forecasts with
high confidence in a 2 to 3 hours window. Behind the line of
thunderstorms, light rain with may continue for a few hours as
thunderstorms drift off to the south and east.

A period of MVFR CIGs is forecast around 12Z Thursday morning as the
front moves through. This MVFR period is short lived, breaking
through the mid-morning.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times
through Saturday. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at times
during this period.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
     051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079.
     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning for
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ089>099.
     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.
     Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning for
     INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...McGinnis