Burlington, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

067
FXUS61 KILN 130746
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
346 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An advancing upper low and associated frontal boundary will dominate
the weather for Friday and the weekend, increasing the chances for
showers with some thunderstorms. The associated surface frontal
boundary will become nearly stationary across the upper Ohio Valley
throughout the weekend, resulting in several rounds of showers and
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A slow moving upper low over the southern plains will allow for
increasing southerly flow and marginal instability over the region
today. Still a little dry air in the low levels over the forecast
area, so radar echoes are from clouds of 6kft-8kft, so the
expectation is for precipitation at ground level to hold off until
very late morning in the west, with also a slight chance across the
north where a surface boundary lingers.

After 18-20z, PW values increase to 1.5-1.8, up to the 90th
percentile for early June. While instability is marginal, in the
southerly flow ahead of the approaching mid level trough, the
potential increases for more widespread showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms. As PWs increase and LCLs decrease by mid afternoon,
with increased potential for localized heavier rain. Will include a
mention primarily in the Tri- state area of the potential for scattered
flood issues.

With the thickening clouds, daytime highs will be more muted in the
low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
While the approaching trough and quasi-stationary surface boundary
will allow a focus for showers and storms to linger into the evening,
with loss of diurnal heating and no focused LLJ, there should be a
relative lull in shower/storm coverage as the night progresses.
Indications from several of the CAMs of a lull in the tri-state, with
more focused potential for scattered precipitation lifting closer to
areas along/north of I-71 closer to the stalled surface boundary.
Plenty of low level moisture lingers, with muggy overnight conditions
and lows in the upper 60s.


Saturday will bring more rounds of showers with embedded
thunderstorms. Localized flooding will continue to be a threat, as
some areas will see repeated rounds of moderate/occasionally heavy
rain. Daytime highs near 80.

Even with the proximity of the surface boundary and upper low
approaching, instability and shear remain pretty marginal for
Saturday, with DCAPEs/potential for wet microbursts marginal with
values near/below 500 J/Kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid level trough axis and an associated weak surface wave will
progress slowly east across the Ohio Valley through the weekend and
into early next week. This will lead to occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. With weak
afternoon instabilities, we will likely see some diurnal enhancement
in the pops during the afternoons and early evenings. Any severe
threat should remain minimal with locally heavy rain being the main
concern. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s through
the weekend.

We will transition to a bit more of zonal flow pattern through mid
next week as a series of weak embedded short waves move east across
the region within the flow. Temperatures will gradually moderate
with highs by mid week in the mid to possibly upper 80s. This will
combine with increasing moisture to allow for some better
instabilities to develop through the later part of the period. As a
result, we will have a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. A lower end severe threat
may also develop as we head into mid week given the potential for
better instability and a somewhat stronger flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR condition expected through at least 15-18z, but with VFR CIGs
lowering over time. The only exception is the near daybreak potential
for MVFR visibility at KLUK. Brought in prob30 for shra after 15z at
KLUK/KCVG/KILN, becoming more widespread after 18-19z with prob30
thunderstorms in the 18-23z timeframe at most locations. Any ceiling
or visibility restrictions in thunderstorms should remain MVFR.
After 00z, a bit of a lull in shower activity from west to east, with
temporarily diminished shower activity at the western TAF locations,
but lingered some -SHRA at KCMH/KLCK.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Friday night
through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JDR