Ashland, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

093
FXUS61 KRLX 150533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1233 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A crossing upper disturbance overnight will maintain the chance for
showers. Drier Friday, with the chance for showers lingering into
Saturday morning across the higher terrain. Dry weekend thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1040 PM Thursday...

A crossing upper low overnight will result in continued shower
chances, gradually reducing throughout the night and becoming
more confined to in/near the higher terrain. Regional 00Z RAOB
soundings depict a very moist boundary layer amid
lowering/thickening stratus. Given such, patchy drizzle is
possible overnight into Friday morning, and has been added into
the forecast for some locations. Additionally, did add the
chance for snow showers at 4 kft and above over the next few
hours based on some webcams, but little to no accumulation is
progged, with an eventual transition to rain expected throughout
the early overnight.

Some patchy fog can`t entirely be ruled out given any brief
breaks in cloud cover, but overall, isn`t expected to be
widespread. Did add patchy fog into the forecast over the higher
terrain w/ low stratus interacting with the mountains.
Otherwise, lows will generally be in the mid 40s across the
lowlands, with 30s to low 40s across the higher terrain.

As of 500 PM Thursday...

Have increased the chance for rain through mid evening from
chance (30-50%) to likely (60-70%) across much of the
central/southern lowlands per latest radar trends, as
surface/upper forcing moves overhead. Showers will generally be
of the light to moderate variety, but a brief heavier downpour
here/there remains possible. The rest of the forecast remains on
track.

As of 100 PM Thursday...

Upper level troughing continues to pivot across the Ohio Valley
today, sending through a surface cold front overnight into
Friday morning. Preceding the frontal passage, periods of heavy
rain will be ushered in from the southwest throughout the
afternoon and evening. So far here at the forecast office, over
one and a half inches of rain have fallen since midnight, which
will aid in chipping away at the drought that has been present
in the Central Appalachians since the summer. A tightened
pressure gradient across the eastern half of the forecast area
this afternoon will also continue to yield breezy to strong wind
gusts before relinquishing its grip due to the encroaching cold
front.

Also continuing to monitor our highest mountain zones this
afternoon, as sub-freezing temperatures remain planted in spots
such as Marlinton and Snowshoe. This may cause localized
freezing rain to be embedded within the rain still, and could
cause slick paths to persist for the next few hours.

Heavier rain will become more confined to the higher terrain
late this evening into the overnight hours as the cold front
sweeps through and imposes northwest flow in its wake. This will
then tap into lake enhanced moisture to continue producing rain
over the mountains on Friday. Streamline analysis maintains a
steady northwest flow through the afternoon/evening on Friday
and even beyond into the start of the short term forecast
period. Another few hundredths of accumulations could be
squeezed out during this time, falling as all rain in response
to surface temperatures remaining above freezing.

Elsewhere on Friday, overcast skies will continue to blanket the
area in the wake of the front. Temperatures will range in the
50s across the lowlands and low 40s/50s for the mountains and
higher ridgetops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Thursday...

Light showers will continue to linger, mainly across the mountains
Friday night in northwesterly flow, behind the departing system.
Drier weather will then take hold during the day Saturday, as high
pressure surface and aloft builds into the area. It will still be
rather cool on Saturday however, as plenty of cloud cover lingers
for much of the day, and a light northerly flow continues across the
area. High temperatures Saturday will generally top out in the 40s
across the mountains and the 50s across the lowlands. Continued dry,
and warmer on Sunday, as surface high slides east allowing for a
more southerly flow to take hold. Clouds will be on the increase
throughout the day however from a passing disturbance to our
north.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 PM Thursday...

Aforementioned disturbance moving across Canada may generate some
light precipitation across our far north and east on Monday, but
overall, moisture across our area looks to be fairly limited, and if
anything is able to materialize, it should be quick hitting. Weather
becomes more uncertain as we move later in the day Monday into the
middle of next week and beyond. However, general pattern calls for a
low to develop across the southwest U.S./southern plains region,
eventually moving northeast into the upper midwest by Tuesday, with
additional shortwave energy across the western U.S. carving out a
deep upper trough across the central U.S. This will set up the
potential for a stream of moist Gulf air to move into our region,
with the potential for another soaking rain for the middle of next
week. Upper trough/low may then linger across the Great Lakes region
at the tail end of the extended, providing additional rounds of
shower activity, and cooler conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1232 AM Friday...

Satellite and surface observations suggest a deep IFR low level
stratus prevailing across most terminals this evening. General
guidance suggests these conditions will prevail through most of
the period and beyond.

MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue to affect most terminals during
the overnight hours. Scattered light rain showers will be
possible from time to time, to produce MVFR/IFR conditions along
their path.

Winds will remain calm overnight while the atmosphere remains
decoupled. Light and variable winds nearby showers. Light west
northwest flow then continues throughout the day on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of restrictions may
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 11/15/24
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EST 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions remain possible along the mountains in low
stratus Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL/GW
NEAR TERM...MEK/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ