Ashland, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

277
FXUS61 KRLX 160444
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1244 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #61 extending eastward
just into our southwestern flank until 11Z with a Tornado or
two wording.

1207 PM Update... SPC has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #61
extending eastward just into our western flank until 08Z with a
Tornado or two wording.

204 PM Update...
Aviation Forecast Discussion updated.

204 PM Update...
A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area
for tonight into Monday. Severe risk has ticked down slightly
(still not zero) with even less confidence in realizing any
significant instability.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Update 2... With a sustained wind and tornado threat along
the line of convection ahead of the advancing cold front, the
southwestern flank of our forecast area has been placed under
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #62 with a tornado or two wording
until 08Z.

1. Update... With a sustained wind and tornado threat along the
line of convection ahead of the advancing cold front, the
western flank of our forecast area has been placed under Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #61 with a tornado or two wording until 08Z.
Another convective watch may be considered farther south, which
then may edge into our southwestern flank.

1. A strong cold front crosses tonight into Monday
morning. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with a line
of showers. A Wind Advisory is in effect.

2. Temperatures plummet Monday, changing rain to snow. Light
accumulations are possible Monday evening into Tuesday morning,
potentially leading to patchy slick spots.

3. A widespread hard freeze is expected Monday night through
Wednesday morning, endangering early-season vegetation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Update 2...
Bowing line segments within the larger- scale
thunderstorm band ahead of an advancing cold front will focus
the risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph), with a brief tornado
possible, mainly near the strongest and more persistent
mesovortices. As 1 AM approached, the north-south oriented line
was crossing the Indiana-Ohio line and central Kentucky, with
the cold front itself in eastern Indiana and west-central
Kentucky.

Update...
Bowing line segments within the larger- scale
thunderstorm band ahead of an advancing cold front will focus
the risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph), with a brief tornado
possible, mainly near the strongest and more persistent
mesovortices. As of midnight, the north-south oriented line was
nearing the Indiana-Ohio line and central Kentucky.

Prev Discussion...
A potent cold front will sweep across the region tonight into
Monday morning. Forecast profiles show a complete lack of
conditional instability, with MLCAPE near zero. However, intense
kinematic forcing is present, coupled with a robust
southwesterly H850 jet of 50 to 60KTs. This strong forcing and
wind field will yield a line of showers capable of producing
sporadic damaging wind gusts. With a dry sub-cloud layer and
non-zero dew point depressions, evaporative cooling and
precipitation drag will efficiently transport high momentum air
to the surface. While there is a non-zero chance for a brief
spin-up tornado given the strong low-level turning (SRH values
300-500), this threat is severely limited by the absence of
instability. Even a modest uptick in instability would
significantly alter this threat, and trends will need to be
closely monitored this evening. Given the primary threat of
gusty showers rather than widespread severe thunderstorms, a
Wind Advisory has been issued for enhanced messaging. This
advisory accounts for tightening gradients ahead of the front,
mechanical mixing/precipitation drag with frontal passage, and a
sharp period of strong cold air advection immediately behind
the front, which typically mixes near 100 percent of the
boundary layer winds to the surface.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Following the frontal passage, strong cold air advection will
establish a non-diurnal temperature trend on Monday.
Temperatures will fall from the 50s early Monday morning into
the 30s across the lowlands by Monday afternoon. Rain will
transition to snow on the back end of this system. Given the
relatively warm ground conditions and the high March sun angle,
widespread accumulating snow is not expected during daylight
hours outside of perhaps the highest elevations. As synoptic
moisture departs, it will be replaced by an upstream fetch off
Lake Michigan. The timing of this transition to lake-enhanced
upslope snow is critical, as a heavy burst of precipitation is
possible on the back edge of the synoptic precipitation as the
upper trough pivots overhead. Once the sun sets Monday evening,
any heavier snow bands could quickly overcome the warm ground
flux, dragging road skin temperatures toward freezing and
allowing for quick, minor accumulations. Warm flux from deeper
soil layers will likely allow skin temperatures to recover once
precipitation lightens, but patchy slick spots remain a concern
for Monday night into especially Tuesday morning as air
temperatures fall into the 20s in the lowlands and teens in the
Northeast Mountains. Current forecast snow amounts remain below
advisory criteria, but trends will be monitored closely. Will
continue wind advisories for the higher terrain into Monday
night with continued cold advection and mixed layer winds of
40-45KTs.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A hard and relatively long-duration spring freeze will commence
Monday night and continue through Wednesday morning. This poses
a significant hazard to adventurous gardeners and any early-
season vegetation that has emerged during the recent warm
pattern. A return to a relatively warmer pattern is expected as
the region rides the baroclinic zone heading into mid-week.
The details in this pattern are relatively low with any small
disturbance passing atop the baroclinic zone likely to produce
at least some showers

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings and visibilities are expected to lower to MVFR/IFR as
heavy rain, and possibly thunderstorms, accompany a cold front
across the area late tonight into Monday. Sub-VFR flight
conditions should then persist as rain showers transition to
snow showers during the second half of the day Monday.

Gusty winds are expected to continue through the majority of the
TAF period, with strongest winds occurring during the frontal
passage. A period of LLWS may also be possible in advance of
the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/timing of LLWS and thunderstorms
may vary from the forecast. Timing of transition from rain to
snow may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in snow showers Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>522-524-525.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ523-526.
OH...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TRM/JP/20
AVIATION...20