Ashland, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

161
FXUS61 KRLX 160625
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

New thoughts on Saturday`s severe weather potential detailed in
Key Message 1.

New aviation discussion at 06Z.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Severe thunderstorms are possible today areawide as a mid-
level disturbance approaches from the west. The main threats
will be damaging wind gusts and some hail.

2) Summerlike weather is expected beginning Sunday and lasting
through the middle of next week. A big cool down will then
arrive Thursday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A mid-level disturbance will approach the middle Ohio Valley
today, bringing the chance of showers and severe thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours.

High resolution mesoscale models show a complex of thunderstorms
developing across Indiana during the mid-morning hours, then
moving eastward into the middle Ohio Valley by the early
afternoon. Two separate, yet distinct shortwave troughs will
aid in the development of this cluster of storms, with one
progressing eastward from Wisconsin/Illinois/Iowa and another
progressing eastward from the lower Ohio Valley region.

Models show somewhat limited instability over central, northern,
and eastern parts of West Virginia today. Models are only
favoring 300-600 J/kg of CAPE in this region. More favorable
instability will be located across western West Virginia and
northeast Kentucky, with models showing anywhere from 800-1200
J/kg during the afternoon hours. Modest 0-6 km shear of 25-30
kts will allow for some severe development, with damaging winds
and hail likely being the primary threats.

Severe weather potential will wane after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will shift over Bermuda and strengthen Sunday
through Wednesday, leading to a gradual warming trend.
Temperatures will become summerlike across the area with
widespread highs in the lower 90s expected Monday and Tuesday.
Anyone spending extended time outdoors should adequately hydrate
and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning as needed.
Also, check on individuals who are particularly sensitive to the
heat during this stretch of hot weather.

*** Records may be broken across parts of the area during this
 stretch of hot weather. More details on climate records can be
 seen in the Climate Section of this forecast discussion. ***

A strong cold front will cross Wednesday into Thursday, bringing
a dramatic drop in temperatures for Thursday. Temperatures will
only reach the lower and middle 70s for highs on Thursday
areawide.

Rain and/or thunderstorms will likely come with the sharp drop
in temperatures Wednesday into Thursday. However, exact details
regarding how much rainfall and severe weather chances are
uncertain at this time. Rainfall is certainly needed, given the
current drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Very patchy fog is possible early this morning across CRW and
EKN. MVFR visibility restrictions have been added into the 06Z
TAF package through 13Z this morning. This afternoon beginning
anytime from 16Z to 18Z, thunderstorms will be possible
areawide. VCTS has been added into the TAF package to account
for this potential. A strong thunderstorm could briefly bring
strong wind gusts 30+ kts and IFR visibility restrictions.
Thunderstorms will dissipate after 00Z Sunday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop this morning at KEKN or
KCRW. Thunderstorms may be more isolated than expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        SAT 05/16/26
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR expected at this time.

.Climate...


  Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------
       Mon, 5/18    |   Tue, 5/19    |
--------------------------------------
CRW | 90 / 92 (1982) | 92 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 91 / 92 (1962) | 92 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 89 / 92 (1962) | 92 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 90 / 95 (1962) | 93 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 84 / 87 (1996) | 86 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 85 / 89 (1911) | 89 / 93 (1996) |
--------------------------------------

  Forecast / Record High Minimum Temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------
       Mon, 5/18    |   Tue, 5/19    |   Wed, 5/20    |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 64 / 66 (2020) | 67 / 67 (1987) | 66 / 67 (1910) |
HTS | 65 / 68 (2017) | 69 / 67 (2019) | 65 / 70 (1996) |
CKB | 63 / 64 (2020) | 67 / 66 (2017) | 65 / 66 (2018) |
PKB | 65 / 68 (2017) | 70 / 66 (1949) | 66 / 68 (1996) |
BKW | 63 / 63 (2015) | 64 / 66 (2019) | 64 / 64 (2022) |
EKN | 60 / 61 (2018) | 62 / 62 (2000) | 64 / 65 (1902) |
-------------------------------------------------------

&&

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
CLIMATE...26