Prairie Village, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

595
FXUS63 KEAX 092052
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and Dry Through Wednesday Afternoon, 90s May Be Possible

- Rain Showers Return Thursday and Friday

- Continued Precipitation Through Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Mid and upper-level closed-low system is currently over the Great
Lakes Region with amplified ridge axis across the Pacific Northwest.
This leaves the region in a broad area of northwesterly flow, with
strong AVA regime promoting subsidence. This has kept skies mostly
clear and has led to the development of a strong surface
anticyclone.  Over the next 24 hours, flow remains northwesterly but
weak. Clear skies Tuesday afternoon will allow for plenty of
insolation, with high temperatures reaching the mid 80s for the
western portions of the forecast area, with lower 80s toward Central
Missouri. Wednesday, greater rate of mid-level height rises occurs
across the lower Missouri River Valley and pushes the surface
anticyclone center toward eastern Missouri. On Wednesday this will
turn lower level flow southerly, providing WAA along with increasing
moisture transport. Expecting dewpoint temperatures to increase into
the upper 60s, leading warm and humid conditions from the eastern
Plains to the middle Mississippi River Valley. A few ensemble
members do show some locations hitting the 90 degree mark on
Wednesday, which may be possible especially if the WAA is stronger
than currently progged. This would send heat index values into the
lower and mid 90s across most of the region.

Late Wednesday into Thursday, short-wave trough ejects from the Four
Corners Region into the southern Plains. This will turn flow south-
southwesterly through most of the troposphere across the Central
CONUS. Through Thursday morning, dCVA increases across the Front
Range and begins surface cyclogenesis, reinforcing south to
southwesterly surface flow across the lower Missouri River Valley.
Rain showers are expected to start Thursday with isentropic upglide
with the WAA, and eventually main warm front works through the area.
Ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation are generally
around 60-70 percent, and around 40-50 percent for at least 0.10
inches of QPF. QPF values still remain light, thus current concerns
for flooding and other hydrologic issues are minimal, even with
recent heavy rainfall across the area. The main short-wave trough
axis lifts through the area Thursday Night and into Friday.
Continued rain shower and storm activity will result in another half
inch or so of QPF. Severe storm probabilities remain low for the
Thursday and Friday activity. While CAPE values will increase with
higher theta-e transport, deep layer shear is currently forecast to
remain weak, with 0-6km bulk shear values under 25 kts. If the shear
is slightly stronger, perhaps a few stronger storms could develop
but at this time the signal for this is weak and thus severe storms
are not currently anticipated.

For the weekend into the start of next week, mid-level ridge is
progged to setup over the western CONUS but PV anomaly over the
Pacific may send multiple vort maxima across the Central CONUS.
Ensemble members continue to spread low-end chances for shower
activity through Monday and Tuesday of next week. With temperatures
generally still in the 80s. Inner-quartile spread among NBM members
is large by the start of next week, indicating uncertainty in how
the short-wave perturbations will propagate through the flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

High pressure will keep conditions VFR for the TAF period, with
a few passing high clouds possible later this evening. Winds
will be breezy this afternoon but should diminish after sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull