Prairie Village, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

133
FXUS63 KEAX 240827
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
227 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog and mist will persist across eastern Kansas
  and western Missouri through this morning. A dense fog
  advisory is in effect.

- More fog is possible tonight (up to a 70 percent chance),
  with the most favorable areas near and north/east of the
  Missouri River.

- Warm and dry weather will continue through Saturday.

- Much colder temperatures are expected to return to the region
  Sunday and Monday. Strong winds may occur on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The forecast has become rather challenging the past couple of
days, owing to the presence of clouds/fog in this warm, moist,
and stagnant pattern. Where low clouds and fog persisted
yesterday, temperatures ended up about 7-10 degrees cooler than
those basking in more sunshine. This gives a pretty good idea of
just how much error may result in the temperature forecasts the
next couple of days, as cloudiness will be a significant
factor.

Models have trended toward cooler highs in the northern two-
thirds of the forecast area, a result of a natural "tightening"
of the forecast temperature gradient with time as models have
begun locking in on the development of a baroclinic zone within
the broader upper ridge encompassing much of the central CONUS.
A typical bias models exhibit is placing this baroclinic zone
too far north, and sure enough, that is what has been happening
the past several days for this mid-week period. Now, most
guidance is decidedly well below 70 for highs in KC the next
couple of days, and general consensus is near but below the
record highs at KC and St. Joseph today and tomorrow. However,
confidence is pretty low for a 1-day and 2-day forecast, owing
to the high sensitivity to sky cover. Low clouds and fog will
persist for much of the morning in the area, but fog should
diminish with time. The low clouds, on the other hand, may be
considerably more stubborn to scatter out. Model soundings keep
low-level saturation for much of the day in much of the area, so
the duration of stronger diurnal heating will likely be quite
limited. Warm advection will continue, however, so despite the
prevalent cloud cover, it will be warm. However, for the
northern CWA, it may end up being several degrees cooler than
yesterday, as cloud cover will likely persist much longer into
the day. On the other hand, it may be several degrees warmer in
the southern CWA (where cloud cover remained the longest
yesterday), owing to this region having the best chances to see
breaks in the clouds earlier in the day. The result is about a
20-degree spread in temperatures from north to south, a good
proxy for the models` trend for a stronger baroclinic zone (and
the ensembles` increased agreement in its location).

With the stagnant pattern continuing tonight, another round of
low clouds and fog seems probable for the region. HREF
probabilities of visibilities less than a half mile are around
40-70 percent in most of the CWA (especially north and west)
tonight. HREF has performed pretty well with the fog the past
couple of nights, so confidence is high we will see good
coverage of fog again tonight. However, there are a couple of
question marks. The first is the presence of antecedent cloud
cover from the daytime hours, which may act to prevent near-
surface saturation more readily (less nocturnal cooling). A
second question mark will be the presence of a weak perturbation
moving through the mid levels this evening. Passage of a
vorticity maximum tends to be a negative factor for fog
formation, often because lift above the surface tends to promote
low stratus rather than fog. Note that the clouds moving over
the region this morning have not prevented fog from forming, but
the density of the fog (as well as its consistency) have been
less than what was observed Tuesday morning. The current
forecast has widespread fog mention tonight, but confidence is
lower on the coverage of dense fog.

This allows for cloud cover to remain an issue on Thursday, as
yet another perturbation approaches the area. Combined with
persistent warm advection, it may be difficult for skies to
clear adequately to get prolonged insolation needed to take our
temperatures to record levels. In fact, most models are now
projecting temperatures on Thursday lower than those for today.
Highs in the 50s and 60s will be the consolation prize.

Models have been trending Friday and Saturday warmer. In fact,
these two days have the higher probabilities for the KC area
reaching 70 degrees now. A key factor in this forecast trend is
the passage of a stronger perturbation Thursday night across the
area, and this will bring a period of large-scale descent to the
area without bringing substantial cold advection. By Friday
afternoon, any cold advection ceases, but cloudiness is expected
to be far less prevalent. Think the records on Friday are in the
most jeopardy at this time. Confidence is lower with Saturday`s
temperatures, as a strong system will be approaching the area.
Large-scale ascent in advance will bring another round of clouds
Friday night and Saturday, so the temperature forecast becomes
more uncertain once again.

Models have trended the strong cold front moving through our
area this weekend slower. However, it will be moving through by
Sunday, and it will bring a brutal reality check to our warm
temperatures this week. Additionally, the strong surface high
building in upstream of the front will generate a strong
pressure gradient that will prompt a period of strong
north/northwest winds on Sunday. NBM probabilities for
advisory-level wind gusts on Sunday are already 25-50 percent in
much of the area, which is pretty decently high for a Day-5
forecast. Forecast highs on Sunday and Monday will be about
25-35 degrees lower than what we will see late this week.

One thing to watch with this slower trend with the cold front is
that it may allow sufficient moisture return in advance of the
front that precipitation generated by the front may begin close
to or even in portions of our forecast area on Sunday. For now,
the probabilities of this are low (less than 15 percent), but if
model trends continue, we may need to throw in some low PoPs for
the far southeast CWA on Sunday. Otherwise, the forecast is dry
through the middle of next week. Another reinforcing surface
high may move in around New Year`s Day, keeping temperatures
from rising too far above seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Challenging TAF forecast for the next 24 hours, as low clouds
and fog will wax and wane across the region. An area of dense
fog is developing in much of eastern Kansas and far west-central
Missouri, with VLIFR conditions expected at IXD most of the
night (75 percent chance). VFR/MVFR at MCI/MKC will gradually
lower to IFR or worse between 06z and 12z (70 percent chance),
with potential for at least quarter-mile fog and or 100-200 ft
ceilings around 12z to 14z (about a 30 percent chance). Locally
dense fog at STJ is possible after 09z and continuing off and
on through 14z before improving (50 percent chance). After fog
improves by 15z or so, low ceilings will also gradually improve,
but confidence in timing is very low. Currently have IFR through
about 18z and then about a 3-hour period of MVFR before VFR
becomes prevalent for the late afternoon and evening.
Restrictions are expected to return after 03z Thursday, but
confidence is low on coverage of fog versus low stratus. Winds
will be somewhat variable and generally under 10 kt through the
24-hour forecast. Expect several TAF amendments through the
night and into the morning Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 24:
KMCI: 72/2021
KSTJ: 69/2021

December 25:
KMCI: 67/1922
KSTJ: 65/2019

December 26:
KMCI: 66/2008
KSTJ: 65/2008

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 25:
KMCI: 53/1936
KSTJ: 51/1936

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ028>031-
     037>039-043>046-053-054.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...CMS
CLIMATE...CMS