Pittsburg, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

158
FXUS63 KSGF 241214
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances tonight through Tuesday evening
  (60-90%), with the highest amounts along and south of the I-44
  corridor towards the MO/AR border. Some minor/nuisance
  flooding may occur along low water crossings and low-lying
  areas across southern MO. No severe weather expected.

- Rain will start pushing out to the east on Christmas morning,
  with 50-70% chances of rain lingering in the eastern Ozarks
  through the evening. Drizzle and fog potential increasing
  behind the rain, with visibility reductions potentially
  impacting holiday travelers. Temperatures in the upper 40s to
  mid-50s and overcast skies for the holiday.

- Additional rain chances (50-70%) by Thursday into Friday. Low
  potential for a few thunderstorms and some additional
  minor/nuisance flooding across southern MO.

- High confidence in above normal temperatures this week. Highs
  through mid-week in the upper 40s to middle 50s. By late week,
  highs reach into the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Light rain is building in coverage and will continue building in
coverage as it moves in from the southwest, with saturated
conditions at the surface making the rain more drizzle-like with
reductions in visibility in some areas.

The pattern is very active and progressive, with a strong
upper-level jet (150-175kt) pushing significant energy into the
western CONUS. As this jet is absorbed into the ridge that
overspreads the Rockies, it is sending a wave of energy due
south along the trough that extends through the Plains. As the
flow splits over eastern Kansas/western Missouri, an 850mb jet
rides through ArkLaTex along the leeward side of a shortwave
trough. This jet perfectly feeds into the flow around a trough
that extends from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes north of
the split flow, so the jet will go from more zonally-oriented
at the time of issuance to more southwest-to-northeast oriented
through the afternoon. Precipitation will continue to develop
along the low-level jet as its winds back slightly over the
next 24-48 hours.

PoPs remain the highest where the edge of the rain shield sets
up, generally along the I-44 corridor. Tuesday will see PoPs of
70-95% set up here, with a sharp decrease in precip chances to
the north, becoming sub-35% north of Hwy 54. The 50%+ chances
become confined to areas south of I-44 and east of Hwy 65 by
Tuesday evening as the LLJ turns. Recent model trends keep rain
lingering in this portion of the eastern Ozarks later into
Christmas morning than previously forecast, with 25-45% chances
remaining into Wednesday afternoon.

Additionally, PoPs have been raised to stay in the 15-40% range
to the west and north of the precip, as a signal for drizzle
has become more pronounced. Drizzle and fog potential behind
the system increases through the day on Christmas as cloud ice
clears with the precip, posing visibility hazards for holiday
travelers. Some of this drizzle-y haze/fog may be dense, with
visibilities locally restricted below 2 miles.

Precip amounts through Wednesday night will be around 0.3" along
the northern extent of the precip, with totals increasing to a
maximum between 1-1.25" further southeast by the time all is
said and done. Minor, localized flooding potential could exist
in vulnerable areas with pre-saturated soils and elevated
streamflows.

Temps today and on Christmas will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s
range, with the highest temperatures furthest southwest. Low,
gloomy clouds will continue through the holiday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

The flow aloft will remain fast-moving and active through the
extended forecast period, with several forecast items of note
in the next week.

#1: Next system comes with another shortwave ejection on
Thursday into Friday, with PoPs rising into the 50-70% range
again Thursday evening. With such an active pattern, ensembles
still have some differences in low tracks, which will largely
dictate thunderstorm chances and rainfall amounts. Thunder
probabilities still remain below 20% due to these discrepancies.

However, better moisture (mean PW around 0.75", which is nearly
200% of normal for this time of year) from this late-week
system means more efficient rainfall rates are likely, thus
higher accumulations. Ensemble QPF generally falls between
1-1.5", but short-range high-res models aren`t quite in range
yet, so some important additional input considering convective
rainfall rates is still unaccounted for. After 1"+ of rain in
the previous days, soils will certainly be saturated Thursday
(especially with robust cloud cover preventing evaporation) and
the threat of flooding increases some with this late-week system
as a result. As high-res models/CAMs get into range later
today, an increase in QPF for the late-week system would not be
surprising.

#2: Temperatures will steadily rise through the week and into
the weekend, remaining mild even through the end of the year.
There is a 68% chance of above normal temperatures through
January 2. Highs may reach the lower 60s starting Friday, and
will remain unseasonably warm through Monday.

#3. Next shortwave comes Saturday, bringing 30-45% chances of
rain with it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Rain to remain through the morning, and widespread IFR/LIFR
conditions to remain through the TAF period, deteriorating to
VLIFR early Wednesday (Christmas) morning. Conditions will
consist of a mix of rain, drizzle, mist, and fog. Ceilings will
drive the flight category, generally degrading more and more as
the TAF period progresses. Visibilities will vary based on the
combination of aforementioned conditions, with stratus build-
down and BR largely driving visibility reduction.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 27:
KSGF: 50/1946Forecast: 46

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden