Overland Park, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

931
FXUS63 KEAX 212316
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisory was extended through Monday, with afternoon
  heat indices near/above 100 degrees and overnight lows in the
  mid to upper 70s providing little relief.

- Breezy conditions will continue through Sunday, with south to
  southwest winds gusting to around 40 mph at times.

- Thunderstorm chances gradually increase next week, with the
  best chances early in the week in far northern Missouri,
  before spreading farther south and east by mid to late week.
  Chances for severe weather are generally low (less than 15%).
  Locally heavy rainfall also cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

A broad upper-level ridge covers much of the central and eastern
U.S. this weekend, leading to the region`s first heat wave of
the summer. The ridge will influence the region for the next
several days, but its amplitude will slowly decrease as a deep
trough in the western U.S. ejects multiple perturbations
northeastward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
gradually changing the pattern to a more zonal look by the end
of the coming work week. The main forecast challenges for this
update were temperatures and heat indices through midweek as the
influence of the ridge continues but slowly wanes and
precipitation chances as the series of perturbations allow for a
front to approach the area with time.

The forecast for Sunday is straightforward, as the pattern will
be largely similar to that seen today. The ridge will actually
amplify somewhat in the eastern U.S., though our region will
remain on its western periphery. With overall similar heights
locally, think temperatures on Sunday will be quite similar to
those seen today. Breezy south to southwest winds will continue
as well, as another lee surface cyclone develops in the Front
Range and progresses northeastward during the next 24 hours.

In the wake of the departing surface low (likely into southern
Ontario by 12z Monday), a northeast-to-southwest front will
gradually shift southeastward on Monday. Remnant convection from
Sunday night will augment the front`s position, with models
likely adjusting for this late in the game. The front`s position
will be important for several reasons: (1) convective placement
as diurnal initiation occurs Monday afternoon, (2) temperature
augmentation (in terms of a thermal ridge developing in advance
of the front Monday afternoon, and perhaps lower-than-advertised
temperatures where remnant clouds persist and/or renewed
convection develops), and (3) moisture pooling in immediate
advance of the front (which will generate a local maximum in
heat indices Monday afternoon in the preconvective environment).
At this time, think most of the CWA will be well southeast of
the front, which will result in another hot/humid day for the
area. Confidence is high enough (even in our far north) to
extend the heat advisory another day for the forecast area.

So far, models keep convection that develops Monday afternoon
primarily confined to our far northwest zones Monday evening
before overnight dissipation. Thus, we have a fairly sharp
gradient of PoPs for Monday night across our area (from 50-80%
in our far northwest to mainly less than 20% south of I-70).
Preconvective proximity soundings Monday afternoon show a
moderately-to-very unstable thermodynamic profile with little
capping, but rather weak deep-layer shear. The inverted-V
profiles suggest downburst potential with the strongest updrafts
(particularly given very high DCAPE values -- greater than 1000
J/kg) and pulse-like convection as the main convective mode.
Heavy rainfall potential most certainly exists (PWs near 1.75
inches; weak upwind propagation vectors; slow-moving initiating
boundary) as well. The best chances for hazardous weather are
north of our forecast area, but we will need to keep an eye on
this potential in our far northwest (and also monitor model
trends with frontal position Monday and Monday night).

As the week continues, the upper-level pattern generally
deamplifies, but the ridge will continue to influence the area
(slowing the aforementioned front to a crawl), at least through
midweek. Models struggle to bring convection into the forecast
area through Wednesday before a gradual southward sag later in
the week. Meanwhile, pattern deamplification in the wake of
previously-strong ridging suggests weak-shear profiles will
continue, with main convective hazards remaining locally heavy
rainfall and isolated downburst winds. As the ridge`s influence
continues to decay, chances for more organized convection will
gradually increase through next weekend, with at least somewhat
greater chances for associated severe weather and flooding.
However, with the stagnance of the pattern and the lack of
predictability of the low-amplitude perturbations initiating
much of the convection through the week, confidence on timing
these higher chances is low. For now, trended the forecast only
slightly cooler through the end of the week (still quite
warm/humid) and with slight to low-chance PoPs Tuesday onward
(with afternoon/evening maxima in values, generally).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Strong pressure
gradient near the surface will maintain gusty winds through most
of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...Krull