Leawood, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

624
FXUS63 KEAX 240438
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1038 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mild week ahead with relatively cloudy conditions.

* Potential for drizzle Christmas day and rain showers the day after
  Christmas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Relatively active pattern with several waves moving across the
central US. Currently, upper trough across northern Iowa is expected
to shift east into the Great Lakes region.  Cold front associated
with this system is working from north to south across the region,
with winds turning more northwesterly behind the front.  Drier air
in the near surface layer emanating from weak surface ridge over the
western Great Lakes is making it very difficult for light echoes on
radar based at 15000 feet agl across the region to reach the
surface.

Southerly flow south of the boundary will usher Gulf moisture
northward resulting in a developing most airmass across eastern
Texas into Oklahoma. Area of low pressure over the panhandle of
Texas is expected to shift slowly south and east, leading rain
showers and drizzle and patchy fog south of the front. With models
pushing the surface boundary further south tonight and the drier air
winning out, have dropped the mention of drizzle tonight into
Tuesday from the forecast with the exception of the far southern
fridge roughly from Butler - Booneville.

Weak northeasterly flow across the region on Tuesday will gradually
transition to a more easterly direction Tuesday night and low level
moisture increases north of the stationary boundary across the
region.  This will result in the development of stratus Christmas
eve night and continuing into Christmas Day.  The stratus looks to
be fairly thick, and with low level isentropic lift, could be
sufficient to result in drizzle across the region.  Have added
mention of patchy drizzle throughout Christmas Day across central
Missouri.

Moist airmass to the south builds north and east on Thursday into
Friday with precipitable water values of 1-1.25", highest across
eastern Missouri. As short wave moves out of the four corners region
into the southern plains expect drizzle to transition to rain
showers on Thursday into Friday. Could possibly see an isolated
thunderstorm on Friday, but the greater instability appears to be
focused a bit farther south towards the I-44 corridor. With the
convective parameters focused further south, expect heaviest
precipitation to remain farther south across southern Missouri into
Arkansas.

Secondary short wave is expected to move through the central US
Friday into Saturday, though there are timing and moisture
differences with this system.

A pair of phased waves move across the Upper Midwest this weekend,
though look to stay far enough north to have limited impact on the
region.

Relatively mild conditions conditions continue into early next week,
when potentially a stronger storm system develops across the central
US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

An area of IFR to low MVFR ceilings is moving south out of IA
currently. Timing this into the terminals it should move into
the STJ area around 09Z, MCI 10-11Z, MKC 11-12Z, and IXD 13Z.
Upstream observations are in the 900 to 1500 ft range. And that
should be the cloud bases as this area of clouds moves through
eastern KS and western MO. The low clouds will likely persist
into the afternoon hours with conditions trending to VFR
thereafter.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB