Leawood, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

533
FXUS63 KEAX 290404
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1104 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers Overnight into Thursday Morning

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Thursday Afternoon

- Warmer Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Mid and upper-level closed-low system is centered over the upper
Midwest this afternoon while a short-wave trough is moving across
the southern Plains. This has resulted in brisk zonal flow across
the region. Surface anticyclone has slid southeast from the Canadian
Prairie Provinces and sits under the closed-low system. There is a
weak short-wave over the Front Range that is located above
southeasterly surface flow there, resulting in a surface cyclone in
the DCVZ. There is another short-wave vort maxima that is working
around the upper-Midwest system that will reach lower Missouri River
Valley by late this evening. This will be the primary forcing for
lift for shower activity in north-central to northeast Kansas this
evening, eventually reaching our western forecast area including the
KC metro by the overnight hours continuing into Thursday morning.
The surface anticyclone has prevented a warm frontal boundary from
advancing northward, which will greatly limit instability for most
of our forecast area. Mid-level cooling may help to steepen mid-
level lapse rates which may end up supporting a few elevated
thunderstorms within the area of showers, but should be rather
isolated if they reach our area. Greater thunderstorm probabilities
will be confined to southern Kansas into southwest Missouri where
instability values would be more favorable. This area of forcing
moves east of the area by Thursday afternoon, and should lead to a
break in rain shower activity at least for a few hours. Another mid-
level vort max will move around the upper-level low across our
region again, providing another source period of lift through the
mid afternoon. If the cloud cover clears early enough, we may see
enough boundary layer heating resulting in destabilization
underneath cooling mid-level profiles yielding steeper lapse rates.
This may be enough to result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon into the evening. The CAMs have been suggesting
scattered development, but generally keep stronger shear further
south toward the Ozarks. Therefore, this will greatly hinder severe
potential for any updrafts that are able to develop on Thursday
afternoon.

Friday, surface anticyclone slides further southward, and should
start to see H5 height rises providing subsidence across the area
keeping conditions mostly dry. Saturday, mid-level ridge axis
amplifies over the Intermountain West but may send another short-
wave trough axis into the Central and Eastern Plains. Deterministic
ECMWF is starting to hint at light QPF potential for our western
forecast area, however other solutions keep the better lift further
west of Central Kansas. A few ensemble suites have probabilities
right around 15 percent for our western counties for measurable
precipitation. For now, will maintain a dry forecast on Saturday,
but may need to add slight chance to POPs to subsequent forecasts if
we see other model suites shift this forcing further eastward.

Next work week, thermal ridge passes through while trough deepens
over the western CONUS, setting up eventual southwesterly flow
across much of the Central CONUS. This is expected to boost
temperatures back into the mid 80s across most of the forecast area.
This will eventually lead to a more active pattern across the
Central CONUS. A few deterministic solutions depict a few days of
large amounts of destabilization, but the timing of any vort max
ejections vary greatly between any model solutions and amongst
various ensemble members. Probabilities are generally around 30
percent for measurable precipitation at any given time frame through
the middle of next week. If the right parameters align, could see
stronger to severe storms in or near our forecast area next week. If
the stronger thermodynamics do not line up with the stronger
kinematics, could be end up just being a week of multiple rounds of
rain showers with isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Observational trends last few hours have underachieved CAM
guidance with regards to RA/SHRA and CIGS. As such, have
substantially cut back on MVFR mentions within the TAF, though
still have some. Have largely delayed MVFR conditions until
around 10/11z and carry through the morning before improvements.
This too may be aggressive given ongoing trends, but felt it
would not be prudent to fully remove MVFR conditions. Otherwise,
light rain/showers periodically overnight, with duration
shortest to greats from north to south across the TAF sites.
Once sites return VFR late morning, remain so through remainder
of TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Curtis