Junction City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

749
FXUS63 KTOP 030536
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1236 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler Temperatures expected late this week into early next
  week.

- Periods of rain will be likely (60-80%) Thursday night into
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Early this afternoon a longer wave-length upper trough was located
across the western US. A short-wave upper trough has ejected
northeast across the Plains and was located across SD, with an upper
trough axis extending south-southeast across western IA into
northern central MO and AR. A Pacific front/dryline has moved
east across central MO. A cold front was moving east across
northeast and east central KS. Behind the front, stratocu were
forming and we may see a period of broken sky cover later this
afternoon, which should clear up close to sunset. Winds behind
the front were from the west-northwest. Ahead of the front
temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees
across the southeast counties. Behind the front, temperatures
were in the mid 50s to around 60s degrees.

Tonight through Wednesday:

The H5 trough across the western US will shift east across the
central Rockies and will phase with a northern stream H5 trough
digging southeast out of central Canada. As the H5 trough approaches
DCVA ahead of the H5 trough will provide enough ascent combined
with isentropic lift for periods of light rain to develop from
south to north across the CWA during the day on Thursday into
Friday morning. Stronger low-level CAA across the northern
Plains will cause a cold front to push southward across the CWA
on Friday. At this time, the richer Gulf moisture advect will
remain southeast and east of the CWA, so the heavy rainfall axis
will develop from east TX, northeast across southern MO, into
IL Thursday night into Friday.

The LREF shows 24 hour QPF from Thursday night through Friday,
across much of the CWA, ranges between 0.2 to 0.4 inches, with
the heavier rainfall across the southeast counties of the CWA
where up to 0.6" of QPF may accumulate.

The showers and low-level CAA will keep high cooler Friday into
Saturday. The showers will end Saturday but northerly winds and
cloud cover will keep highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

The H5 trough will move east across the eastern US. Northwest flow
will keep dry and cooler conditions across the region. Highs will
moderate slowly into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday, with lower to
mid 60s on MOnday and Tuesday. Highs will warm into the 70s on
Wednesday, as southerly winds return.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Confidence in SHRA late in the period is still too low
probability to include in the forecast. Trends do suggest that
sufficient saturation may develop generally around or after 00Z
to see SHRA develop but uncertain on how widespread. Will
continue to refine for the 12Z forecast. Winds remain generally
remain around 10kts into the afternoon from the ESE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake