Junction City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS63 KTOP 130431
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1031 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder is likely (60% to 80%)
  through the early morning Wednesday over northeast and east
  central Kansas.

- Mild and dry weather is forecast to end the week.

- Rain chances increase by Monday with the next weather system
  expected to move across the central plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

19z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough over the Great
Basin as another upper wave approached the Pacific Northwest.
Surface obs showed pressure falls along the central high plains
which have caused the gradient to strengthen and southern winds
to pick up. Once again good insolation and a relatively dry
airmass have pushed afternoon temps into the middle and upper
60s.

Aside from a slower progression to the upper wave, the forecast has
not changed a lot. The biggest change is to delay the onset of
precip. Instability remains pretty limited with the HREF mean MUCAPE
values less than 500J/kg. So the expectation is for a line of
showers to pass west to east through the morning hours of Wednesday.
The progressive nature of the system means precip amounts around a
quarter of an inch look pretty reasonable. Increasing clouds and
southerly winds are forecast to keep lows tonight in the upper 40s
and around 50. With the models trending slower with the wave, have
held onto cloud cover longer through the day Wednesday. The forcing
for precip is progged to move east of the area early in the
afternoon so precip should be pretty much over around noon, save for
a stray shower over northeast KS. The increased clouds should help
to keep temps in the 50s through the afternoon Wednesday.

Upper level ridging on Thursday transitions to southwest flow by the
weekend. This should allow for temps to remain above normal with
highs continuing to reach the mid and perhaps upper 60s into
Saturday. There could be some weak perturbations within the
southwest flow aloft as moisture returns from the south. The NBM
shows probabilities for precip around 10 percent on Saturday and
ticking up into the slight chance range for Sunday.

For the first part of next week, energy is expected to dig into the
southwest and lift out across the central plains on Monday.
Temperatures look to be plenty warm enough for the event to be all
rain. Cloud cover and chances for precip are expected to keep temps
a little closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Showers beginning to form west of KMHK should slowly work east.
Have moved up timing for onset at all terminals. Could see a few
embedded TS but trends still suggest these will be isolated. No
significant changes other than moving up the timing for now. IFR
conditions still anticipated by early morning and then improving
into midday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake