Gardner, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXUS63 KEAX 121141
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm and humid conditions expected today and
  tomorrow.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily
  for areas along and south of a Butler to Boonville line.

- Hot and humid conditions for this weekend into early next week
  with isolated pop up showers and storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A weak mid level low is centered over Oklahoma into northern
Texas this morning, with associated weak troughing across Texas
into eastern OK and western Arkansas. With some modest forcing
for ascent and instability but ample moisture, this has spawned
an expanse of rain showers across NW Arkansas into far SW
Missouri. This will continue to slowly migrate northward through
the morning hours (likely slowly weakening as it moves north),
with only very minor accumulations (generally 0.1" or less) for
areas generally south of the Interstate 70 corridor. The weak
mid level low and trough will continue to slowly migrate to the
northeast into this afternoon, with CAMs suggesting another
cluster of showers and thunderstorms developing across the
Ozarks by early afternoon and moving north northeastward toward
our region, again likely weakening as they move north, with the
best chances for storms for areas along and south of a Butler to
Boonville line. With PWATs on the order of 1.8", very localized
areas could get a quick 0.5" to 1" of rain similar to yesterday
afternoon. Another area that could be favored for some isolated
convective development this afternoon looks to be north central
and northeastern Missouri. Aside from the rain chances, high
temperatures this afternoon should range from the mid 80s across
northern Missouri to the upper 70s toward the Ozark Plateau
with humid conditions continuing. CAM guidance suggests that
convection should decay after the loss of daytime heating across
our CWA tonight, although a large area of showers and storms
will likely persist through the overnight into early Friday
morning across the Ozarks where the better forcing will reside.

As we head into tomorrow, the weak mid level low makes its way
over central Missouri. A few isolated showers and storms will be
possible on Friday afternoon toward central Missouri, but the
rest of the CWA should remain dry. High temps for Friday should
range from the lower to mid 80s with soupy conditions thanks to
dewpoints in the upper 60s.

The mid level low should fill by Saturday, with guidance
suggesting a large mid level high setting up shop over the
Desert Southwest with associated ridging across much of the
western CONUS, with our region located on the eastern periphery
of this ridge, with a few weak impulses/shortwaves potentially
translating through along the northeastern edge of the ridge
through the weekend. Hot and humid conditions will continue,
with highs in the upper 80s and dew points remaining in the
upper 60s. As of now, Saturday seems probable to remain dry, but
isolated showers and storms may be possible for Sunday.

The overall large scale pattern is progged to continue into next
week, with the mid/upper high centered over the Trans Pecos and
associated ridging across the western CONUS into the Southern
Plains, and impulses riding along the northwestern periphery of
the ridge across the central Plains. Hot and humid conditions
should continue, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and chances
for isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms. The better chance
for more organized convection looks to potentially come Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a stronger shortwave trough may descend
out of the north central High Plains into the mid Mississippi
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions with light southerly winds continue at the
terminals this morning. An area of very light rain resides south
of Kansas City, but should erode before it reaches the KC metro
terminals (best chances for any light rain is at IXD).
Otherwise, a few isolated showers will be possible this morning
and afternoon, but high probability that the terminals will stay
dry. VFR conditions should persist through the afternoon, with
MVFR CIGs likely developing by later this evening. Light winds
should continue, eventually becoming more southeasterly by this
afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW