Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

808
FXUS63 KDDC 150535
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday.

- Accumulating rainfall as early as Sunday and extending into
  Monday. Highest chances (80%) and amounts (in excess of an
  inch) will be across the Red Hill region of south central
  Kansas. Opportunity for rain farther west toward the
  Colorado line is based on varying degrees of uncertainty.

- Strong north winds developing mid week as much colder air
  returns to western Kansas. Wind Chills in the teens likely
  (60-70%) Wednesday and Thursday morning.

- Currently monitoring the chance for some light snow mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

 An 850 mb ridge remains in place across the area Tonight, as
temperatures once again fall to sub freezing across the western
half of the area. Gusts will drop off this afternoon and winds
remain light overnight out of the south as cirrus continued to
spill into the central plains from the Rockies. Warning
temperatures are expected into the middle of the weekend, as the
upper pattern is developing a trough across the western states
and an upper jet expanding across the desert southwest
northeast into the Plains, drawing better downsloping air into
the region. Highs around 70 degrees could be common both Friday
and Saturday.

As the upper pattern continues its evolution into a deep
trough developing this weekend, the main 3 global spectral
models Canadian/GFS/EC do have decent upper level patterns by
early next week, with a closed low developing into west Texas.
ESAT (Ensemble situation awareness table) is indicating up to 3
standard deviations relative to climatology for the mean
precipitable water over the southeast counties Sunday night
and thats into the 99th climatological percentile. A marginal
risk for excessive rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
within 25 mile of a point is low, but not zero (at least 5%)
from about highway 23 (Dighton-Meade) and eastward into central
Kansas Sunday night and into Monday. Uncertainty in the amount
so of rainfall across the area with these patterns often
centers on the behavior of the upper low, which can often dig
farther south into west Texas as latent heat released by
convection can change the path of the PV anomaly. If we follow
the 25th to 75th percentiles as reasonable expected amounts, Med
Lodge might see between 1.5 inches on the low end to as much as
3 inches over a 48 hours ending Monday evening. Likewise father
east,t he uncertainty will have a higher impact as the same
range is less than a quarter inch...to as much as an inch and a
half for Garden City.

Regardless of rain amounts, much colder air is expected to pour
in behind the synoptic system for mid week. Typically windy
conditions for western Kansas might be underdone right now by
the Day 6 NBM 4.2 with these 20 knots northwest winds, and at
that point much will depend on the stacking of the boundary
layer and mid level jet placement. Wednesdays Max temperatures
are are represented as colder by about 5 degrees than the
GFS/Canadian ensemble means - by the ECMWF ensemble mean, with
highs not exceeding the 30s on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

East to southeast winds at less than 10 knots overnight will
shift to the south and increase to around 2025 knots between
15Z and 18Z on Friday as stronger winds in the boundary layer
mix down to the surface. After 00Z Saturday, these gusty
southerly winds will decrease to around 15 knots as the
atmosphere decouples. A low level jet of approximately 45 knots
will then develop across southwest Kansas. There is a 2040%
chance of patchy fog, which may reduce visibility to around 3
miles at times between 11Z and 15Z based on the High Resolution
Ensembles models, mainly in the Garden City and Dodge City
areas. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert