El Dorado, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

287
FXUS63 KICT 130401
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1001 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances for tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Above normal temps continue through the work week and into the
  weekend.

- Shower and storm chances return for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Shortwave trough is currently rotating across the Four Corners
region with another impulse departing the Eastern Seaboard. At
the surface, lee troughing continues to strengthen with return
flow also ramping up across the Plains. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region.

Upper trough will continue tracking east and will be moving out
into the High Plains this evening. Just ahead of this feature,
850-700mb moisture transport will ramp-up and will result in
showers and storms developing. Not looking for much in our
forecast area until after 03z. Model trends have been to
increase elevated instability with each run and now looking like
it`s not out of the question to see a few storms over southern
KS produce some small hail with CAPE above 850mb in the
1,000-1,500J/KG range. Peak time for precip areal coverage will
generally be in the 06-12z range. After this time, most of the
activity will be quickly pushing off into MO.

As this system departs, gusty northwest winds will overspread
the area by early Wed afternoon with some gusts in the 30-40 mph
range possible across mainly central KS. This will also setup
some good downslope and will keep above normal highs in place.
Weak upper ridging will then slide over the Plains for Thu into
Fri as our next upper impulse starts to dig over the Western
CONUS. There is still good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF
in the upper energy closing off over Baja on Sun before lifting
quickly into the Southern Plains by Sun night. Precip associated
with this system is then expected to overspread the area for Sun
evening through Mon. This looks like another very progressive
system, so not expecting a prolonged heavy rainfall event.

Confidence remains high that above normal temps will persist
through the work week and into the weekend with strong return
flow for both Fri and Sat. Highs Thu through Sat will be in the
60s region wide.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 959 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area
from west to east. Adjusted arrival times slightly from the
previous outlook with SHRA/tsra arriving near
RSL/GBD/HUT/SLN/ICT in the 6-8Z time frame and closer to 10Z at
CNU. MVFR CIGS and VSBY may accompany these showers as well.
Otherwise, SHRA/tsra will clear the area near sunrise with wind
shifting to the northwest wind gusts near 30 kt. Winds will
decrease to 10-15 kt near sunset Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Very high fire danger will affect a couple counties across
central KS on Wed afternoon.

Strong northwest winds will overspread the area behind the
departing low pressure system on Wed. We are looking for
sustained speeds across central KS in the 25-30 mph range with
gusts 35-40 mph. We are also looking for afternoon RH values in
the 35-40% range which will elevate the grassland fire danger
into the very high category for both Russell and Barton
counties Wed afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF
FIRE WEATHER...RBL