El Dorado, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS63 KICT 101129
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures expected today.

- Periodic low storm chances starting Thursday and lasting into
  the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis show broad
troughing across the eastern half of the CONUS with a weak but broad
upper ridge across much of the western CONUS. The central plains
will feel more influence from the upper ridge as temperatures rise
into the upper 80s and low 90s across the forecast area.
Additionally, southerly low-level flow is forecast to increase this
evening into tonight as surface pressure fall commence across the
northern High Plains in response to a disturbance set to traverse
across the northern plains on Wednesday. This will help to
reinforce warmer temperatures even as we lose the influence of
the upper ridge by early Wednesday.

THe upper ridge that will support warmer temperatures today will
weaken, and a weak cutoff low will gradually move northeastward out
of southwest Texas late Wednesday and early Thursday. There isn`t a
real focus for widespread showers and storms from this system
across Kansas. However, vorticity advection aloft may provide just
enough lift to support maybe some spotty isolated showers and storms
on Thursday, mainly for areas along and east of the Flint Hills.
With a stark lack shear and instability, strong to severe storms are
not expected on Thursday. This system lumbers across southern plains
going into Friday, and much of the same is expected: very spotty
showers and storms across southeast Kansas that are not likely to be
strong or severe in nature. In addition to these spotty storm
chances, a brief cool down is possible across southeast Kansas
as a result of the increased cloud cover.

Going into the weekend, the pattern looks to be quite nebulous as
the forecast area is pinched in between a couple of strong upper
ridges located over northwest Mexico and the southeast CONUS. This
leaves the central plains under a region of weak northwest flow.
Even with relatively weak flow aloft, any perturbations in this
flow could be enough to trigger additional chances for showers
and storms across the central portions of the country. Still too
far out for fine details, so be sure to stay tuned to the
forecast over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Light and variable winds will gradually become more uniform out
of the south this afternoon. Wind speed are expected to remain
around 5-10 knots this afternoon through Wednesday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC