El Dorado, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

222
FXUS63 KICT 082325
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of showers/storms Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

- Above average temperatures through Saturday.

- Bonifide cool down Sunday through at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

PRECIPITATION...

A compact mid-upper trough approaching from the northwest will be
the focus for scattered showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night
through Thursday morning, mainly east-southeast of a line extending
from Medicine Lodge to McPherson to Manhattan. For now only went
with 20 percent PoPs, although given the decent forcing wouldn`t be
surprised if coverage ends up being more numerous than expected, so
later shifts may need to increase PoPs. Marginal instability and
shear combination should preclude severe weather, although steep
lapse rates may contribute to small hail and gusty winds.
Furthermore, while widespread heavy rainfall is not expected,
pockets of meaningful rainfall are possible.

Otherwise, after Thursday morning, the synoptic pattern will favor
continued dry weather through at least early next week. The latest
ECMWF does attempt to bring in a mid-level baroclinic zone for light
precipitation chances Monday night--Tuesday, but these chances
appear low at this point.

TEMPERATURES...

Above normal atmospheric heights/thickness and southerly low-level
flow will support continued above average temperatures through
Saturday, with daytime highs well into the 80s to low 90s (warmest
Friday--Saturday). A record high may be flirted with Friday at
Chanute (91 in 1975), and at all sites Saturday (Wichita 91 in 1975,
Salina 91 in 1975, Chanute 91 in 1975, Russell 93 in 1975).

Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a bonifide cool down is
expected by Sunday, as a trough deepens over eastern North America,
and strong Canadian high pressure drives south into Mid-America.
Current model consensus supports highs in the 60s-70s Sunday, with
60s Monday-Tuesday. Forecast low temperatures look to be in the 30s-
40s Monday night and Tuesday night. This could spell some patchy
frost for low-lying and sheltered areas.

The cool down looks to persist through at least next Tuesday or
Wednesday, with model solutions sharply diverging thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Light easterly winds this evening will turn more variable
overnight before veering around to the south. Light SSE winds
are expected to prevail by mid morning tomorrow, with wind
speeds increasing slightly to around 10kts across the afternoon
and early evening hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...KMB