Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

369
FXUS63 KICT 240443
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1043 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Best chance for light rain/drizzle tonight/early Tuesday in
  southeast Kansas with patchy fog over much of the area.

- More clouds than sun expected much of this week though
  temperatures remaining above late December climo.

- Chances for rain/rain showers areawide Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A challenging forecast with regard to cloud trends, fog/drizzle
potential and rain chances the rest of the week. Low level
moisture axis this afternoon extends from eastern sections of
Texas/Oklahoma into the frontal boundary over southeast Kansas.
Areas of light rain/drizzle and patchy fog are expected to
develop this evening/overnight with a rather sharp PoP gradient
along the elevated low level front and mainly along/south of
the 700 mb confluent flow/trof axis. This looks to setup over
much of south central/southeast Kansas where modest lift will
occur ahead of the approaching shortwave upper trof. The light
precip and patchy fog/clouds will linger most of Tuesday across
southeast Kansas with some sunshine breaking through over
central Kansas and perhaps parts of south central Kansas by the
afternoon. As we move into Christmas day we will be under a
transient ridge aloft and also at the surface, however it looks
like a possible dirty ridge scenario with some moisture trapped
under the low level inversion, which may keep more clouds than
sun over portions of the area during the daylight hours. A more
significant upper low/trof will move into the central/southern
Plains during Thursday, taking on more negative tilt as it lifts
northeast toward the mid-Mississippi Valley by early Friday.
Recent model trends have been a bit further south with this
feature and the NAM remains more so over the GFS. Even so, it
looks to provide more of the area with somewhat better chances
for measurable rainfall for the late week periods. Some
semblance of upper troughing looks to remain over the area later
Friday into early Saturday before departing to the east by
Sunday. Overall, temperatures look to become unseasonably mild
with highs about 15 degrees above climo over the weekend.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1034 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Main aviation concern will remain low clouds tonight into Tue.

Area of MVFR cigs remain over southern KS and are currently
affecting KICT-KCNU-KHUT. These low cigs will slowly sink south
into Tue morning, moving out of KHUT in the 09-10z range and
KICT by 14z. However, they look to remain at KCNU through
most of Tuesday. Confidence is high that they will remain at
MVFR levels. We may also see some scattered light rain showers
across southeast KS that may affect KCNU late tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...RBL