Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

437
FXUS63 KICT 022002
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rounds of rain showers for Thursday-Saturday night

- Dry weather looks to prevail for Sunday through Wednesday next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows another jet streak
diving southward on the backside of the upper trough across the
southwestern states. This will cause the upper trough to deepen and
remain over the southwestern states for today through Friday.
Meanwhile a couple upper level short waves will then rotate
through the main trough axis and bring additional rounds of
precipitation to Kansas for Thursday-Saturday. The first short
wave will bring the next round of rain to Kansas for late
tonight into Thursday followed by a lull in the activity. A
second short wave then brings another round of rain showers to
the region for late Thursday night into Friday followed by the
main upper trough finally ejecting eastward into the southern
plains by Saturday. Friday has the better chances of more
widespread rainfall especially across southeast Kansas.
Instability will be lacking during these periods so expecting
mainly periods of rain showers with a few embedded storms
possibly affecting southeast Kansas. The axis of heavy rainfall
and associated surface frontal boundary will remain well
southeast of the region for today-Saturday, therefore not
anticipating heavy rainfall to impact our region. There is
still a chance for rain mixing with snow Saturday night, however
impacts from this still look minimal.

Dry and quiet weather will be in store for Sunday-Wednesday as
models are in good agreement showing an upper level pattern change
with a transition to a northwest flow regime. This will sweep out
all the low level moisture and result in dry weather across the
region. A frontal boundary looks to push southward across the
central plains on Monday but lack of moisture will be lacking,
therefore not expecting any precipitation to occur. Temperatures
will gradually warm from Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Low clouds in MVFR category will affect central Kansas this
afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions are expected with only some
high level clouds floating overhead. Winds will switch from the
west today to an easterly direction by Thursday morning along
with increasing low level clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next 7 days with
cooler temperatures, periods of rain for Thursday-Saturday, and
lighter wind speeds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ