Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

407
FXUS63 KICT 111940
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
240 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms over southeast KS/Flint Hills
  starting late tonight and continuing through Thursday evening.

- Slight chance for storms to come off the High Plains and
  potentially affect parts of our area late Saturday night.

- Above normal temperatures to start this weekend and continue
  through most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Currently have an upper low lifting across north central TX with
water vapor imagery showing another upper impulse approaching
the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends
generally along the Nebraska/SD border with weak lee troughing
in place across eastern CO/western KS.

Upper low over northern TX is expected to continue lifting
north and will increase shower and storm chances late tonight
with coverage forecast to increase for Thursday. Even through
there will not be a ton of instability on Thursday, cooler mid
level temps and a high PW airmass should result in sct
showers/storms with some higher rainfall rates possible, with
strong or severe storms not anticipated. By 00z Fri, upper low
will be located over extreme northeast OK and will be moving
into the Ozark region during the day Fri, with some sct activity
lingering over extreme southeast KS. Upper low will continue
into the Mid Mississippi Valley Fri night with upper ridging
starting to build over the Southern Rockies. The GFS remains
much more agressive than other models in developing storms over
western KS Fri night into early Sat morning as a weak upper
impulse move into the area. Currently have very low confidence
in this panning out as the upper energy with the GFS looks to
be the result of earlier convection and not a synoptic feature.

For Sat into Sun, upper ridging is expected to continue to build
from the Southern Rockies into Western Mexico. While daytime
shower and storm chances will be low for the Sun-Tue time frame,
there will be slight overnight storm chances as daytime
activity attempts to come off the High Plain of western
Nebraska/NW KS. However, confidence remains low on these chances
panning out as they will be dependent on where daytime
convection forms each day. Confidence is much higher that we
will see a warming trend through at least he middle of next
week, with widespread low 90s likely by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected heading into the overnight hours as a
system moves in from the south. MVFR ceilings are expected in south
central KS around 12Z, with showers anticipated across southeast KS
beginning later tonight. Introduced a PROB30 at CNU beginning at 07Z
to reflect uncertainty in starting time for these. Otherwise,
look for largely southerly winds through the end of the period,
with gusts up to 20- 25 kts in central KS subsiding after
sunset.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK