Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS63 KICT 160527
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1227 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this evening into
  tonight; a few may become severe with large hail and damaging
  winds

- Additional severe thunderstorm chances Saturday through
  Monday; best chances appear to arrive Sunday and Monday

- Hot, possibly recording breaking, temperatures throughout the
  weekend

- Very high fire danger expected Sunday and Monday for areas
  generally west of Interstate 135

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

As of 230 PM Friday, zonal midlevel flow remains across the central
and northern Plains. At the surface an area of low pressure was
located across southwest KS with a dryline draped across the OK and
TX Panhandle. A secondary dryline/differential mixing boundary
extends from near Great Bend through Medicine Lodge and into western
OK. The main surface trough axis extends from southwest KS through
north-central KS and north from there. Mesoanalysis reveals an axis
of 850-700 mb WAA from far southern KS into northern OK. This area
has light radar returns and may be producing light rain showers.
This WAA axis will glide across southeast KS through the remainder
of the afternoon/evening. A very dry sub-cloud airmass will greatly
hinder rain amounts.

Further west, the main dryline across the OK/TX Panhandle and the
secondary dryline across west-central KS remain largely cloud-free
thus far. Satellite trends will need to be monitored through
the afternoon/early evening for any possible development. The
background environment across central/south-central KS is quite
similar to Thursday with large inverted-V boundary layer
profiles. Instability is somewhat higher with MLCAPE values up
to 2000 J/kg. All of that to say, any storm that develops this
afternoon/evening will have the potential to produce hail up to
quarter size and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

Transitioning into this evening and overnight, a 40-50 kt LLJ will
strengthen across central and eastern KS with the nose of the jet
residing near I-70 from 9PM to 1AM. This could be a focal point area
for elevated convection to develop. This scenario is supported with
12Z HREF guidance. Steep midlevel lapse rates would support hail up
to quarter size and wind gusts near 60 mph. As the nose of the LLJ
propagates northeast after midnight, the storm chances will
shift north into NE, MO, and IA. Towards dawn Saturday, as the
LLJ veers, a few showers/storms cannot be ruled out.

Moving into Saturday, more-cyclonic midlevel flow will overspread
the high Plains as a shortwave trough emerges from the west coast.
This will promote the deepening of a surface low across southeast
CO. Easterly and upslope flow on the northern periphery of the
surface low will promote thunderstorm development across northeast
CO during the afternoon hours. A dryline will sharpen across
portions of west-central KS into western OK with a warm front
extending into central NE/IA. Similar to yesterday and today,
convective development along the dryline will remain very
conditional as capping and meager large scale ascent remains across
the Plains. The convection that develops across northeast CO is
likely to propagate along/near the warm front across northern
KS and southern NE. This would keep this cluster mainly north of
NWS Wichita`s forecast area. A similar setup will evolve
Saturday night as tonight with the nose of a 45-50 kt LLJ will
briefly setup across central/northern KS. This may provide a
focal point for storm development.

For Sunday, cyclonic midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across
the Plains with the aforementioned surface low slowly
propagating into portions of west-central KS. A dryline will
sharpen across portions of central or west-central KS as dew
point reach the low to mid 60s. There remains uncertainty
whether convective initiation will occur due to a lack of large
scale ascent and residual capping. The conditional environment
would support supercells with effective shear values of 40-45
kt. In addition, impressive veering and acceleration within the
lowest 3-4 km will result in effective SRH values 250-350 m2/s2.
As a result, all hazards would be possible with any storm
Sunday afternoon and evening including large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes.

The most-likely timeframe for widespread convection appears to
arrive Monday as the dryline sharpens across central KS, the frontal
zone sinks south into KS as a shortwave trough ejects into the
central/northern Plains. Model guidance suggests the overlap of
strong instability and shear for the potential for severe weather.
Additional convection is possible Tuesday afternoon depending on the
placement of the aforementioned frontal zone.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Low-level wind shear will affect south-central and southeast KS
in the overnight hours as the low-level jet continues,
diminishing around 13z Saturday morning. Southeast winds will
pick up late Saturday morning and continue through this TAF
period with gusts up to 30 kts at times especially in south-
central to southeast KS. An isolated storm could be possible in
central KS late Saturday afternoon into the evening, though
confidence remains very low on chances especially for terminal
impacts. Given the high uncertainty, decided not to include in
this TAF issuance but will continue to monitor for later
issuances.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Very high fire danger is expected for areas generally west of I-135
Sunday and Monday. A dryline will sharpen across portions of central
KS each afternoon with hot temperatures, low humidity, and gusty
south winds. Southerly wind gusts Sunday and Monday afternoons
will approach 40-45 mph. A wind shift from the northwest will
occur late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...GC
FIRE WEATHER...ADK/BRF