West Des Moines, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

087
FXUS63 KDMX 022351
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
651 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will develop in northwest Iowa
  tonight, spreading across the state through the day on
  Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue all day, then
  a secondary round of stronger storms again Tuesday afternoon
  and evening.

- Another round of thunderstorms later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Southwest winds have increased across the area today thanks to a
tightening pressure gradient ahead of the approaching surface low.
This has allowed afternoon winds to gust 25-30+ mph. Meanwhile, the
surface low sits off to the northwest across South Dakota into
Minnesota. Convection will develop along the front there this
afternoon and evening, and this will move into parts of northwest
Iowa late this evening after around 10 pm. By the time this line of
storms makes it into Iowa the line is expected to have become
outflow dominate, limiting the hail potential into Iowa. The better
lobe of forcing will lift into the area overnight, fueled by the low
level jet and evolving upscale into an MCS.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on throughout the
day, though the intensity will diminish in the morning. By
afternoon restrengthening is expected. With southwest flow
indicated in soundings through the depth of the column, blow-off
should be to the northeast and allow for clearer skies and
better redevelopment chances in southeast Iowa tomorrow
afternoon. CAMs have picked up on this well with more robust
convection developing south of the I-80 corridor along and east
of I-35. RAP/HRRR both indicate MLCAPE 2000+ J/kg by afternoon
in the southeast quadrant of Iowa. With deep saturation most of
the day lapse rates are modest and could limit more robust hail
growth. Still, some hail is possible along the leading edge
that sees better clearing into the afternoon, along with
damaging wind gusts. With slow movements from overnight tonight
and thorugh Tuesday, pockets of locally heavy rain are possible.
HREF PMM indicates a widespread ~1" with pockets of 2+"
possible. As such, local ponding may occur but overall hydro
concerns are fairly low at this time. The line of storms will
move east of Ottumwa and into eastern Iowa by around 7pm.

In addition to the thunderstorms on Tuesday, temperatures will
be non diurnal, falling through the day as the front passes
across the state. Many places in central to southern Iowa wills
tart the morning in the 70s and end the day in the low 60s,
falling to the 50s overnight. Wednesday will feature a brief
break from precipitation with the next system set to impact the
area by Thursday into the weekend. Current data indicates weak,
more diffuse forcing and limited potential for stronger
convection, but will monitor over the next couple days. In the
meantime, temperatures will be mild in the mid to upper 70s
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Showers with a few storms over far northwest Iowa will gradually
move eastward generally after 03z and spread across central Iowa
overnight through Tuesday. On and off showers and storms are
expected across the sites, though confidence on location and
timing of storms are low at this time, so have left direct
mentions out a this time and will continue to monitor conditions
over the next several hours. Low clouds moving across the state
will result in MVFR and gradually IFR conditions for all sites
by mid to late morning. South to southwest winds will shift
northwesterly through Tuesday as the frontal boundary passes
across the state, with breezy winds gusting generally up to
15-20 knots.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Bury