Dubuque, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

340
FXUS63 KDVN 051747
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1247 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly (but still not far from normals) days will continue
  through Tuesday with cold nights, especially Monday night when
  a freeze is expected.

- A few passing rain or snow showers are possible through mid-week,
  with low amounts of rain if they occur.

- Another widespread rainfall event is gaining confidence late
  this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Strong winds have been mixing down on occasion late this past
evening and early this morning, as strong cold advection continues
to bring unstable low levels mixing down those gusts to 40-45 mph,
and even creating a few light showers in the northeast 1/2 of the
area. Some of those have wetted pavement in a few locations, but
measurable rain should be extremely limited the past 12 hours.

After yesterday`s highs in the 40s, today`s at least mostly sunny
skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 50s will seem much more
pleasant, though the breeze of 10 to 15 mph will continue to gust to
25 mph this morning, adding some chill to the air. Yesterday`s
guidance verified below the 10th percentile NBM, but given the sun
available today, I`ll lean close to the 50th percentile NBM, which
has most locations reaching 52-53 today, and some urban areas
reaching 54.

An evening lull in the winds and will quickly give way to another
push of stronger northwest winds towards late evening and overnight
as a push of much colder air spreads south into the Corn-Belt
associated with a surface 1035mb+ high pressure. A few showers much
like this past evening are possible in this transition, resulted in
light qpf and some passing cloud cover. If stratus does fill in
behind the front, Monday will be much cooler than our forecast, but
for now, we`re seeing highs in the mid 40s north to lower 50s south
in cold advection.

The coldest air will be over the area Monday night and Tuesday.
Clearing north appears likely Monday night, and with light winds,
we`re looking at lows in the lower 20s confidently north of I-80,
and upper 20s to low 30s south where cloud cover could linger
through the night, as F-gen begins to set up for Tuesday`s light
rain/snow chances in the south. This will bring us to a challenging
headline decision for Monday night probably later today on the day
shift, as we have coordinated with counties to "turn on"
Frost/Freeze products for counties from Louisa IL, to Keokuk County
IA, and south. Farther north, we are not as susceptible, but
will certainly be very cold Monday night.

Cloud cover, southeast winds and some low end chances for light
rain/light snow showers will exist Tuesday, resulting in a strong
potential for a cold day, similar to yesterday, as highs reach the
low 40s north to mid 40s south. While F-gen will bring plenty of
clouds to the area Tuesday, the dry southeast winds will bring
questionable saturation to the surface, thus, pops are relatively
low in this period, as most of the activity will be in central Iowa
and westward.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

An active, and warmer pattern remains expected Wednesday through the
weekend ahead as southwest to zonal flow aloft, brings a sustained
period of rain/thunderstorm chances to the region. A warm front is
expected to set up in the area, with an open gulf moisture feed
resulting in a prolonged period of wet weather and chances for
significant rainfall again. Severe weather will not be something
easily resolved this far out given the lack of consistent signal in
synoptic forcing, beyond the active warm front in place. WPC
continues to show wide swath of QPF in the outer periods of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A VFR afternoon under the northeastern flank of a large region
of high pressure...enough LLVL pressure gradient hanging on to
keep west-northwesterly sfc winds gusting up to 25 KTs at times.
Then a clipper type wave will scoot down out of the northeastern
plains and possibly produce isolated to sctrd showers by mid
evening at DBQ, and possibly skirt the CID and MLI terminals mid
to late evening. But moisture is limited with this wave and the
showers may stay high based and light, not reducing things down
to MVFR as they pass by. Some wind veer back more northwest and
a bit of an increase behind these showers later tonight into
Monday morning. Northwest sfc winds will look to get gusty again
by late Monday morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin/Gunkel/12
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...12