Davenport, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

652
FXUS63 KDVN 141559
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1059 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...Updated for 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more decent summer day today before the real heat and humidity
  build back into the area Friday and through the weekend with heat
  index readings near or exceeding 100 degrees.

- Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week
  in a pattern change.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Today...Sfc ridge in currently in place starts to edge eastward, but
hangs on long enough to ensure another dry decent day for this time
of year with highs in the low to mid 80s and humidity levels held in
check. There may be some higher debris clouds spilling in off
decaying convection to the west acrs the area today, as well as more
ambient cellular cumulus clouds this afternoon. But still may
advertise mostly sunny skies.

Tonight...As the now well advertised thermal ridge organizes
upstream, just a low chance for some ridge-riding convection tries
to move into the northern CWA late tonight out of the eastern
Dakotas and MN, but more likley just some debris clouds off that
activity. We may have some wings of AC developing overnight in
elevated warm air advection(WAA) regime taking place, but expect any
precip trying to develop in that activity to remain aloft in virga
form. A bit milder night with lows generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Friday...Latest ensemble trends suggest upstream thermal ridge
continues to build and migrate this way, effectively shunting the
storm track back acrs the northwest high plains and over to the GRT
LKS into the weekend. Again after the low chance for some decaying
convection or associated debris gets in the northern CWA Friday
morning, it look like the heat dome and building EML aloft engulfs
the area for the start of the weekend. Thermal profiles suggest
Friday highs in the upper 80s to around 90 with sfc DPTs rising into
the low to mid 70s by afternoon. This will make for a hot humid
feeling day with projected heat index readings in the 95 to 100
degree range, as long as the possible debris from the north erodes
in time to allow heat up. Ring of Fire nocturnal MCS`s rage to the
north Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday...Latest suite of ensemble runs and mass
field/upper jet placement still suggest the main foot print of the
thermal ridge to be adjusted right acrs the CWA SAT, and northern
periphery storm track maintained to the north acrs the plains into
the GRT LKS. At least low +20s C H85 MB temp pool will be in place
over the region, supporting the potential need for heat headlines
over the weekend especially over the southern 2/3`s of the fcst area
depending on convective debris in the north. Coming up with Saturday
heat index readings in the 100 to 107 range if sfc DPTs can maintain
in the mid 70s. This with ambient high temps in the low to mid 90s.
Not much better or similar for Sunday if we stay capped and dry
through that period. If it weren`t for the humidity, profiles
and mixing depths on current fcst soundings would lead to
ambient high temps in the upper 90s to around 100. Still some
chance for a MCS busting down the ridge and making it into the
area from the north Sunday night into Monday morning, but the
latest ensembles have trended a bit later with that process
maybe more Monday night into Tuesday.

Monday through Wednesday...A potentially volatile period with the
thermal ridge break down and storm track shifting down acrs the
local area in a pattern flux. This may open the area to rounds of
storm clusters or MCS type systems through at least Tuesday night,
before we can get into a cooler and less humid pattern by late next
week as high pressure takes over the western GRT LKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period with some diurnal
cumulus along with an increase in mid/high clouds. Showers over
western and central Iowa will weaken as they push east and run
into drier air. An upper level disturbance largely passing to
our north will foster additional redevelopment of showers/storms
later today through this evening to our north/west. With large
sub-cloud dry air near surface to 700 hPa funneled in on
easterly flow this activity should weaken while approaching E
Iowa, but could produce sprinkles near to north/west of CID and
DBQ 22z-04z. Winds will be from the E/SE around 5-10 kt through
tonight, then turn from S/SE Friday and increase to 10-15 kt with
some locally higher gusts Friday afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...McClure